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With today's news that the WIAA's Ad Hoc Committee on Competitive Equity has chosen to advance a success-based formula we decided to play with the numbers a bit for boys basketball.

Please note, the proposal currently states that the 2013-2014 season will be the first year counted towards their success based formula with the 2016-2017 sports season being the first that a team could be moved up a division.

Below is the results of if you took the last three complete seasons (2011-2012, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014) and applied the proposed criteria from the committee.

A few years back I called this a “Dynasty” rule in an article with a recommendation how to fix basketball in the state.  My math was different and I included a larger sample (more years) but it seems as though the committee is on the same track I was with my thinking when I penned that editorial back then. 

In looking at the data from the previous three seasons the following teams would be “Dynastied” up a division. (Let’s think of a better word for this. Maybe “Dominicaned” up a division?)

To reiterate, this is just a projection using the past three years using the new proposal rules.  This is not going to happen this season.

Boys Basketball

D5 to D4: None
D4 to D3: Dominican – 12 points
D3 to D2: Lodi - 8 points
D3 to D2: Brillion - 9 points (4 of which came from D2 state title)
D2 to D1: Wisconsin Lutheran – 7 points

Just missed:

D5 – NEW Lutheran – 6 points
D5 - Sheboygan Lutheran - 6 points
D4 – Cuba City – 6 points
D2 - Onalaska - 6 points

Girls Basketball

D5 to D4 - Barneveld - 8 points, Assumption - 7 points, Heritage - 7 points
D4 to D3 - Cuba City - 7 points, Algoma - 7 points
D3 to D2 - Kewaunee - 8 points, Neillsville - 9 points (4 from D4)
D2 to D1 - Notre Dame -- 10 points, New Berlin Eisenhower - 7 points, New London - 7 points

Just missed:
D5 - Owen-Withee - 6 points

Link to spreadsheet outlining points scored

Based on the rules and point system of the proposal Dominican would be up in Division 3 for a guaranteed 2 years.  If they failed to accumulate 3 points combined in the two years they would be back in Division 4 (assuming enrollment stays the same) that third year. 

My first thoughts after doing this exercise are what my initial thoughts were back when I wrote my "dynasty rule" article.  The need for a bigger sample size.  If you go five years of history you prevent one player or one strong class from tainting the sample, so to speak. 

Also, tough to move a team like Lodi for boys or Eisenhower for girls up a division when they haven't won a state championship in the timeframe specified. Perhaps that could be a new wrinkle they could add.