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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field & Division Placements heading into Week 9

10/11/2015, 6:45pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last week of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the  200+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better. The 215th team in the playoffs is Hurley, technically an Independent this year, who gets in thanks to securing at least six overall victories. 

That leaves 9 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted last year, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).

So the first two spots for sub-.500 teams go to Big Eight teams Sun Prairie and Janesville Parker, who I project to go 4-5 in league play.

Now, 7 spots are left. A total of 23 teams went 3-4 in league play and tie for those 7 spots: 

Clear Lake 
Eau Claire Memorial 
Fennimore 
Hartford 
Independence/Gilmanton 
Kenosha Bradford 
Kenosha Christian Life 
Manawa 
Martin Luther 
Menomonee Falls 
Milwaukee Lutheran 
Mukwonago 
Onalaska 
Pittsville 
Prescott 
Somerset 
Spooner 
Suring 
Sussex Hamilton 
Union Grove 
Valders 
Wabeno/Laona 
West Allis Hale 

To figure out which 7 of those 23 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. Most of the 23 teams got wins over the bottom three teams in their leagues. The team whose defeated conference opponents had the most league wins is Onalaska with 6, thanks in large part to a victory over West Salem, who I project to go 4-3 in league play. Interestingly, defending Division 4 champion Somerset, who I project to go 3-4 in league play with a win over Baldwin-Woodville in Week 9, gets in with a number of 5, thanks in large part to a victory earlier this year against Prescott, who I project to go 3-4 in league play. 

Speaking of Prescott, I project the Cardinals to be one of the five teams tied for the final spots left, as all teams had a number of 4 based on the above criteria (defeated conference opponent league victories): Prescott, Menomonee Falls, Suring, Sussex Hamilton, West Allis Hale.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions.

A few notes on our PROJECTED divisions:

- Defending D1 champion Kimberly remains in D1. The Papermakers had won the title in D2 in 2013. 

- Germantown, Chippewa Falls, De Pere, and Superior are notable teams at the top of D2.

- Greendale and Monona Grove, who met for the Division 3 title in 2013, would be the two largest teams in D3. 

- Freedom, unbeaten and the champion of the North Eastern Conference, along with Sheboygan Falls, Osceola, and Berlin drop to D4. 

- Spencer/Columbus Catholic, undefeated and ranked second in D4 currently, would fall to Division 5.

- We would avoid a tie on the D5/6 cutline, as Grantsburg, Pardeeville, and Unity would be in D6. They all have an enrollment number of 258.

- Coleman, Athens, Hilbert/Stockbridge, and Hurley are among interesting teams to drop to D7.

The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Enrollment PROJECTED Division
Kenosha Indian Trail  2510 1
Arrowhead  2257 1
Sun Prairie  2204 1
Green Bay Preble  2184 1
Marquette University  2166 1
Stevens Point  2139 1
Racine Horlick  2132 1
Middleton  2112 1
Fond du Lac  2100 1
Oak Creek  2087 1
Milwaukee Riverside  2079 1
Milwaukee Morse.Marshall/Juneau/Languages/Carmen NW 2041 1
Madison Memorial  1924 1
Neenah  1900 1
Bay Port  1812 1
Appleton North  1800 1
Milwaukee Hamilton  1735 1
West Allis Hale  1726 1
D.C. Everest  1660 1
Milwaukee Bradley Tech  1648 1
Muskego  1618 1
Madison East  1610 1
Verona  1582 1
Janesville Parker  1571 1
Oconomowoc  1546 1
Kimberly  1494 1
Milwaukee King  1481 1
Appleton West  1465 1
Franklin  1453 1
Madison La Follette  1453 1
Milwaukee Washington/Science/Collegiate 1445 1
Sussex Hamilton  1434 1
Badger  1433 2
Germantown  1399 2
Chippewa Falls  1391 2
Menomonee Falls  1376 2
De Pere  1346 2
Superior  1341 2
Brookfield Central  1324 2
Greenfield  1308 2
Watertown  1303 2
Brookfield East  1285 2
Homestead  1282 2
Oshkosh North  1220 2
Green Bay Southwest  1194 2
Waukesha West  1178 2
Burlington  1171 2
Waunakee  1163 2
Cedarburg  1160 2
Holmen  1152 2
Wilmot  1124 2
Hortonville  1098 2
Milwaukee Bay View  1094 2
Oregon  1094 2
Waterford  1090 2
Wauwatosa West  1056 2
Ashwaubenon  1048 2
DeForest  1043 2
Milton  1016 2
Whitefish Bay  995 2
Menasha  992 2
Menomonie  984 2
Slinger  968 2
Tomah  938 2
Greendale  937 3
Monona Grove  925 3
New Richmond  916 3
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  882 3
Merrill 881 3
Onalaska  868 3
New Berlin Eisenhower  848 3
West De Pere  845 3
La Crosse Logan  832 3
Reedsburg  820 3
Plymouth  813 3
Antigo  812 3
Pewaukee  812 3
Whitnall  793 3
Notre Dame  786 3
Wisconsin Lutheran  727 3
Rice Lake  724 3
Seymour  710 3
Waupaca  689 3
Catholic Memorial  664 3
Evansville/Albany  661 3
Mosinee  650 3
Medford  648 3
Luxemburg-Casco  641 3
Jefferson  636 3
Hayward  626 3
Milwaukee Career & Tech. Ed.  622 3
Kewaskum  611 3
Xavier  594 3
Madison Edgewood  585 3
West Salem  567 3
Saint Francis  561 3
Freedom  559 4
Fox Valley Lutheran  555 4
Berlin  544 4
Sheboygan Falls  540 4
East Troy  535 4
Osceola  534 4
Black River Falls  524 4
Big Foot  520 4
Lodi  515 4
Mauston  510 4
Two Rivers  509 4
Somerset  495 4
Little Chute  489 4
Adams-Friendship  487 4
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian  481 4
Winneconne  473 4
Kiel  459 4
Beloit Turner  457 4
Mont/Princeton/Green Lake  455 4
Northwestern  453 4
Tomahawk  452 4
River Valley  451 4
Wrightstown  446 4
Brodhead/Juda  440 4
Nekoosa  434 4
Altoona  424 4
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau  424 4
Omro  409 4
Wautoma  404 4
Columbus  400 4
Saint Croix Central  393 4
University School  387 4
Prescott  384 5
Peshtigo  380 5
Clinton  377 5
Spencer/Columbus Catholic  369 5
Bloomer  364 5
Southern Door  363 5
Marshall  359 5
New Glarus/Monticello  355 5
Cedar Grove-Belgium  350 5
Lakeside Lutheran  350 5
New Holstein  338 5
Brookfield Academy  332 5
Prairie du Chien  331 5
Arcadia  329 5
Winnebago Lutheran  329 5
Elk Mound  328 5
Bonduel  326 5
Oostburg  324 5
Racine St. Catherine's  320 5
Kenosha St. Joseph  317 5
Saint Croix Falls  317 5
Kewaunee 312 5
Shoreland Lutheran  311 5
Durand  306 5
Amherst  303 5
Stratford  300 5
Stanley-Boyd  298 5
Cameron  296 5
Lancaster  296 5
Colby  289 5
Waterloo  279 5
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser  278 5
Mondovi  261 6
Grantsburg  258 6
Pardeeville  258 6
Unity  258 6
Dodgeland  255 6
Fall Creek  250 6
Cuba City  246 6
Saint Mary Catholic  246 6
Northern Elite  245 6
Lake Country Lutheran  244 6
Shiocton  244 6
Marathon  241 6
Iola-Scandinavia  239 6
Crandon  238 6
Regis  238 6
Markesan  235 6
Saint Mary's Springs  229 6
Lake Holcombe/Cornell  224 6
Pecatonica/Argyle  222 6
Mineral Point  218 6
Melrose-Mindoro  216 6
Ozaukee  215 6
Whitehall  215 6
Iowa-Grant  214 6
Brookwood  213 6
Edgar  211 6
Darlington  209 6
Cochrane-Fountain City  208 6
Abbotsford  204 6
Elmwood/Plum City  204 6
Crivitz  202 6
Spring Valley  202 6
Coleman  198 7
Athens  197 7
Hurley  197 7
Hilbert/Stockbridge  194 7
Catholic Central  181 7
Randolph 176 7
Gillett  174 7
Bangor  170 7
Eleva-Strum  170 7
Loyal  169 7
De Soto  167 7
Flambeau  167 7
McDonell Central  166 7
Wild Rose  163 7
Benton/Scales Mound 159 7
Assumption  155 7
Cashton  155 7
Johnson Creek  152 7
Owen-Withee  149 7
Hillsboro  148 7
Rio  140 7
Pepin/Alma  137 7
Clayton  126 7
Almond-Bancroft  120 7
Suring  119 7
Port Edwards  117 7
Potosi  113 7
Ithaca  112 7
Cambria-Friesland  103 7
Black Hawk  102 7
Weston  89 7
Cassville  78 7

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs