It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 220 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.
That leaves 4 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
There are six teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Beloit Turner, Brodhead/Juda, De Pere, Gilman, Green Bay Preble, and Janesville Parker.
To figure out which four of those six get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league.
Brodhead/Juda has the highest score thanks in large part to a victory over Jefferson (who I project to go 7-2) back in Week 3, so the Cardinals are in. Gilman and Green Bay Preble tie for the next two spots.
This leaves Beloit Turner, De Pere, and Janesville Parker tied for the final spot still. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head, but that doesn't apply. None of the team's beat the conference champion, which is the next tiebreaker. None recorded wins over playoff teams (as determined in WIAA regulations 1, a-d) either. All three have the same mark for defeated conference opponents' (conference games only) overall win/loss percentage and defeated conference opponents' (all games) overall win/loss percentage.
Finally, we get down to the last tiebreaker before it goes to a coin flip: first half points allowed per game through Week 8 (conference games only). Obviously the teams have not played Week 8 yet, so I used points through Week 7. The totals are:
De Pere - 81 points
Janesville Parker - 83 points
Beloit Turner - 109 points
As a result, I have De Pere claiming the final postseason spot.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
* Please note that according to our projections, there are ties on the D3/4 and D6/7 cutlines (and several more potential ties if anything changes slightly). The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2016. After contacting the impacted the schools, the information below is correct using the enrollment tiebreakers; Fox Valley Lutheran goes to D3 and Xavier to D4; Lourdes goes to D6 while Elmwood/Plum City goes to D7.
Division | 2016* | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1408 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 935 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 384 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 269 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 193 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
* - Projected thru Wk 8 |
Team | Enrollment | PROJECTED Division |
---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2597 | 1 |
Sun Prairie | 2271 | 1 |
Arrowhead | 2217 | 1 |
Racine Horlick | 2199 | 1 |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2149 | 1 |
Middleton | 2148 | 1 |
Marquette University | 2148 | 1 |
Madison West | 2134 | 1 |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 2133 | 1 |
Green Bay Preble | 2114 | 1 |
Stevens Point | 2078 | 1 |
Fond du Lac | 2070 | 1 |
Neenah | 1978 | 1 |
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall | 1941 | 1 |
Appleton North | 1921 | 1 |
Bay Port | 1823 | 1 |
Hudson | 1804 | 1 |
Wisconsin Rapids | 1634 | 1 |
D.C. Everest | 1627 | 1 |
Mukwonago | 1615 | 1 |
Verona | 1585 | 1 |
Oconomowoc | 1576 | 1 |
Milwaukee Vincent | 1528 | 1 |
Madison La Follette | 1525 | 1 |
Chippewa Falls | 1496 | 1 |
Franklin | 1493 | 1 |
Appleton West | 1491 | 1 |
Kimberly | 1483 | 1 |
Badger | 1474 | 1 |
Milwaukee King | 1462 | 1 |
Milwaukee Washington | 1449 | 1 |
Shorewood/Messmer | 1408 | 1 |
Hartford | 1402 | 2 |
Wausau West | 1394 | 2 |
De Pere | 1349 | 2 |
Superior | 1340 | 2 |
Brookfield Central | 1330 | 2 |
Watertown | 1313 | 2 |
Milwaukee Reagan | 1312 | 2 |
Homestead | 1299 | 2 |
Oshkosh North | 1273 | 2 |
Brookfield East | 1253 | 2 |
Waukesha West | 1233 | 2 |
Greenfield | 1231 | 2 |
Waunakee | 1196 | 2 |
Waukesha North | 1191 | 2 |
Holmen | 1173 | 2 |
South Milwaukee | 1163 | 2 |
Green Bay Southwest | 1137 | 2 |
Cedarburg | 1135 | 2 |
Wilmot | 1125 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1125 | 2 |
Waterford | 1108 | 2 |
Hortonville | 1089 | 2 |
Pulaski | 1063 | 2 |
DeForest | 1058 | 2 |
Stoughton | 1047 | 2 |
Ashwaubenon | 1039 | 2 |
Wauwatosa West | 1038 | 2 |
Menasha | 1006 | 2 |
Monona Grove | 968 | 2 |
Menomonie | 962 | 2 |
Whitefish Bay | 953 | 2 |
Greendale | 935 | 2 |
New Richmond | 927 | 3 |
Fort Atkinson | 923 | 3 |
Onalaska | 897 | 3 |
West De Pere | 885 | 3 |
Merrill | 852 | 3 |
Port Washington | 846 | 3 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 845 | 3 |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 845 | 3 |
Pewaukee | 843 | 3 |
Reedsburg | 823 | 3 |
Whitnall | 823 | 3 |
La Crosse Logan | 822 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 800 | 3 |
Sparta | 794 | 3 |
Plymouth | 791 | 3 |
Shawano | 791 | 3 |
Delavan-Darien | 784 | 3 |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 768 | 3 |
Antigo | 727 | 3 |
Rice Lake | 724 | 3 |
Seymour | 710 | 3 |
Monroe | 690 | 3 |
Catholic Memorial | 689 | 3 |
Medford | 668 | 3 |
Waupaca | 667 | 3 |
Ashland | 667 | 3 |
Jefferson | 665 | 3 |
Evansville/Albany | 664 | 3 |
Luxemburg-Casco | 645 | 3 |
Hayward | 618 | 3 |
Kewaskum | 608 | 3 |
Fox Valley Lutheran * | 571 | 3 |
Xavier * | 571 | 4 |
Saint Francis | 567 | 4 |
Berlin | 560 | 4 |
Freedom | 553 | 4 |
East Troy | 541 | 4 |
Sheboygan Falls | 540 | 4 |
West Salem | 540 | 4 |
Osceola | 536 | 4 |
Mauston | 512 | 4 |
Lodi | 508 | 4 |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 506 | 4 |
Big Foot | 497 | 4 |
Adams-Friendship | 489 | 4 |
Little Chute | 477 | 4 |
Two Rivers | 476 | 4 |
Amery | 465 | 4 |
Wrightstown | 459 | 4 |
Kiel | 456 | 4 |
Martin Luther | 447 | 4 |
Platteville | 443 | 4 |
Northwestern | 441 | 4 |
Altoona | 433 | 4 |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 423 | 4 |
River Valley | 421 | 4 |
Nekoosa | 412 | 4 |
Brodhead/Juda | 411 | 4 |
Saint Croix Central | 406 | 4 |
Peshtigo | 405 | 4 |
Omro | 402 | 4 |
University School | 397 | 4 |
Columbus | 394 | 4 |
Lakeside Lutheran | 384 | 4 |
Clinton | 382 | 5 |
Bloomer | 382 | 5 |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 365 | 5 |
Horicon/Hustisford | 363 | 5 |
Valders | 357 | 5 |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 356 | 5 |
Westby | 349 | 5 |
Arcadia | 347 | 5 |
Southern Door | 343 | 5 |
Elk Mound | 342 | 5 |
Brookfield Academy | 334 | 5 |
New Glarus/Monticello | 333 | 5 |
Amherst | 332 | 5 |
Oostburg | 329 | 5 |
Racine St. Catherine's | 328 | 5 |
Kewaunee | 324 | 5 |
Oconto | 321 | 5 |
Stanley-Boyd | 313 | 5 |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 313 | 5 |
Stratford | 312 | 5 |
Durand | 310 | 5 |
Laconia | 308 | 5 |
Bonduel | 305 | 5 |
Winnebago Lutheran | 304 | 5 |
Cameron | 302 | 5 |
Lancaster | 300 | 5 |
Saint Croix Falls | 296 | 5 |
Random Lake | 291 | 5 |
Colby | 290 | 5 |
Waterloo | 280 | 5 |
Weyauwega-Fremont | 272 | 5 |
Rib Lake/Prentice | 269 | 5 |
Unity | 267 | 6 |
Belleville | 267 | 6 |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 264 | 6 |
Grantsburg | 259 | 6 |
Markesan | 257 | 6 |
Lake Country Lutheran | 249 | 6 |
Saint Mary's Springs | 247 | 6 |
Dodgeland | 247 | 6 |
Cuba City | 244 | 6 |
Northern Elite | 241 | 6 |
Auburndale | 239 | 6 |
Marathon | 238 | 6 |
Ozaukee | 231 | 6 |
Crandon | 230 | 6 |
Racine Lutheran | 225 | 6 |
Regis | 223 | 6 |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 221 | 6 |
Iola-Scandinavia | 220 | 6 |
Wabeno/Laona | 218 | 6 |
Fennimore | 218 | 6 |
Manawa | 218 | 6 |
Melrose-Mindoro | 217 | 6 |
Glenwood City | 217 | 6 |
Darlington | 216 | 6 |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 213 | 6 |
Mineral Point | 211 | 6 |
Coleman | 199 | 6 |
Spring Valley | 199 | 6 |
Abbotsford | 196 | 6 |
Edgar | 194 | 6 |
Iowa-Grant | 194 | 6 |
Lourdes Academy * | 193 | 6 |
Elmwood/Plum City * | 193 | 7 |
Wauzeka/Seneca | 192 | 7 |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 182 | 7 |
Eleva-Strum | 182 | 7 |
Tri-County | 182 | 7 |
Bangor | 180 | 7 |
Clear Lake | 179 | 7 |
New Lisbon | 178 | 7 |
Hurley | 175 | 7 |
Johnson Creek | 174 | 7 |
Loyal | 168 | 7 |
Wild Rose | 165 | 7 |
McDonell Central | 165 | 7 |
Wausaukee | 164 | 7 |
Assumption | 159 | 7 |
De Soto | 157 | 7 |
North Crawford | 150 | 7 |
Cashton | 147 | 7 |
Royall | 143 | 7 |
Fall River | 141 | 7 |
Pepin/Alma | 137 | 7 |
Owen-Withee | 137 | 7 |
Ithaca | 135 | 7 |
Black Hawk | 128 | 7 |
Almond-Bancroft | 123 | 7 |
Suring | 123 | 7 |
Turtle Lake | 118 | 7 |
Potosi | 116 | 7 |
Shullsburg | 113 | 7 |
Cambria-Friesland | 110 | 7 |
Gilman | 107 | 7 |
Highland | 84 | 7 |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.