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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 8

10/02/2016, 11:15pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 220 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.

That leaves 4 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).

There are six teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Beloit Turner, Brodhead/Juda, De Pere, Gilman, Green Bay Preble, and Janesville Parker.

To figure out which four of those six get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. 

Brodhead/Juda has the highest score thanks in large part to a victory over Jefferson (who I project to go 7-2) back in Week 3, so the Cardinals are in. Gilman and Green Bay Preble tie for the next two spots.

This leaves Beloit Turner, De Pere, and Janesville Parker tied for the final spot still. The next tiebreaker is head-to-head, but that doesn't apply. None of the team's beat the conference champion, which is the next tiebreaker. None recorded wins over playoff teams (as determined in WIAA regulations 1, a-d) either. All three have the same mark for defeated conference opponents' (conference games only) overall win/loss percentage and defeated conference opponents' (all games) overall win/loss percentage.

Finally, we get down to the last tiebreaker before it goes to a coin flip: first half points allowed per game through Week 8 (conference games only). Obviously the teams have not played Week 8 yet, so I used points through Week 7. The totals are:

De Pere - 81 points
Janesville Parker - 83 points
Beloit Turner - 109 points

As a result, I have De Pere claiming the final postseason spot.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

* Please note that according to our projections, there are ties on the D3/4 and D6/7 cutlines (and several more potential ties if anything changes slightly). The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2016. After contacting the impacted the schools, the information below is correct using the enrollment tiebreakers; Fox Valley Lutheran goes to D3 and Xavier to D4; Lourdes goes to D6 while Elmwood/Plum City goes to D7.

PROJECTED 2016 Cutlines compared to past seasons

Division 2016* 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1408 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 935 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 384 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 269 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 193 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195
* - Projected thru Wk 8

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Enrollment PROJECTED Division
Kenosha Indian Trail  2597 1
Sun Prairie  2271 1
Arrowhead  2217 1
Racine Horlick  2199 1
Milwaukee Riverside  2149 1
Middleton  2148 1
Marquette University  2148 1
Madison West  2134 1
Milwaukee Hamilton  2133 1
Green Bay Preble  2114 1
Stevens Point  2078 1
Fond du Lac  2070 1
Neenah  1978 1
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall  1941 1
Appleton North  1921 1
Bay Port  1823 1
Hudson  1804 1
Wisconsin Rapids  1634 1
D.C. Everest  1627 1
Mukwonago  1615 1
Verona  1585 1
Oconomowoc  1576 1
Milwaukee Vincent  1528 1
Madison La Follette  1525 1
Chippewa Falls  1496 1
Franklin  1493 1
Appleton West  1491 1
Kimberly  1483 1
Badger  1474 1
Milwaukee King  1462 1
Milwaukee Washington  1449 1
Shorewood/Messmer  1408 1
Hartford  1402 2
Wausau West  1394 2
De Pere  1349 2
Superior  1340 2
Brookfield Central  1330 2
Watertown  1313 2
Milwaukee Reagan  1312 2
Homestead  1299 2
Oshkosh North  1273 2
Brookfield East  1253 2
Waukesha West  1233 2
Greenfield  1231 2
Waunakee  1196 2
Waukesha North  1191 2
Holmen  1173 2
South Milwaukee  1163 2
Green Bay Southwest  1137 2
Cedarburg  1135 2
Wilmot  1125 2
Milwaukee Bay View  1125 2
Waterford  1108 2
Hortonville  1089 2
Pulaski  1063 2
DeForest  1058 2
Stoughton  1047 2
Ashwaubenon  1039 2
Wauwatosa West  1038 2
Menasha  1006 2
Monona Grove  968 2
Menomonie  962 2
Whitefish Bay  953 2
Greendale  935 2
New Richmond  927 3
Fort Atkinson  923 3
Onalaska  897 3
West De Pere  885 3
Merrill  852 3
Port Washington  846 3
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  845 3
New Berlin Eisenhower  845 3
Pewaukee  843 3
Reedsburg  823 3
Whitnall  823 3
La Crosse Logan  822 3
Notre Dame  800 3
Sparta  794 3
Plymouth  791 3
Shawano  791 3
Delavan-Darien  784 3
Wisconsin Lutheran  768 3
Antigo  727 3
Rice Lake  724 3
Seymour  710 3
Monroe  690 3
Catholic Memorial  689 3
Medford  668 3
Waupaca  667 3
Ashland  667 3
Jefferson  665 3
Evansville/Albany  664 3
Luxemburg-Casco  645 3
Hayward  618 3
Kewaskum  608 3
Fox Valley Lutheran * 571 3
Xavier * 571 4
Saint Francis 567 4
Berlin  560 4
Freedom  553 4
East Troy  541 4
Sheboygan Falls  540 4
West Salem  540 4
Osceola  536 4
Mauston  512 4
Lodi  508 4
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian  506 4
Big Foot  497 4
Adams-Friendship  489 4
Little Chute  477 4
Two Rivers  476 4
Amery  465 4
Wrightstown  459 4
Kiel  456 4
Martin Luther  447 4
Platteville  443 4
Northwestern  441 4
Altoona  433 4
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau 423 4
River Valley  421 4
Nekoosa  412 4
Brodhead/Juda  411 4
Saint Croix Central  406 4
Peshtigo  405 4
Omro  402 4
University School  397 4
Columbus  394 4
Lakeside Lutheran  384 4
Clinton  382 5
Bloomer  382 5
Spencer/Columbus Catholic  365 5
Horicon/Hustisford  363 5
Valders  357 5
Cedar Grove-Belgium  356 5
Westby  349 5
Arcadia  347 5
Southern Door  343 5
Elk Mound  342 5
Brookfield Academy  334 5
New Glarus/Monticello  333 5
Amherst  332 5
Oostburg  329 5
Racine St. Catherine's  328 5
Kewaunee  324 5
Oconto  321 5
Stanley-Boyd  313 5
Kenosha St. Joseph  313 5
Stratford  312 5
Durand  310 5
Laconia  308 5
Bonduel  305 5
Winnebago Lutheran  304 5
Cameron  302 5
Lancaster  300 5
Saint Croix Falls  296 5
Random Lake  291 5
Colby  290 5
Waterloo  280 5
Weyauwega-Fremont  272 5
Rib Lake/Prentice  269 5
Unity  267 6
Belleville  267 6
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser  264 6
Grantsburg  259 6
Markesan  257 6
Lake Country Lutheran  249 6
Saint Mary's Springs  247 6
Dodgeland  247 6
Cuba City  244 6
Northern Elite  241 6
Auburndale  239 6
Marathon  238 6
Ozaukee  231 6
Crandon  230 6
Racine Lutheran  225 6
Regis  223 6
Pecatonica/Argyle  221 6
Iola-Scandinavia  220 6
Wabeno/Laona  218 6
Fennimore  218 6
Manawa  218 6
Melrose-Mindoro  217 6
Glenwood City  217 6
Darlington  216 6
Cochrane-Fountain City  213 6
Mineral Point  211 6
Coleman  199 6
Spring Valley  199 6
Abbotsford  196 6
Edgar  194 6
Iowa-Grant  194 6
Lourdes Academy * 193 6
Elmwood/Plum City * 193 7
Wauzeka/Seneca  192 7
Hilbert/Stockbridge  182 7
Eleva-Strum  182 7
Tri-County  182 7
Bangor  180 7
Clear Lake  179 7
New Lisbon  178 7
Hurley  175 7
Johnson Creek 174 7
Loyal  168 7
Wild Rose  165 7
McDonell Central  165 7
Wausaukee  164 7
Assumption  159 7
De Soto  157 7
North Crawford  150 7
Cashton  147 7
Royall  143 7
Fall River  141 7
Pepin/Alma 137 7
Owen-Withee  137 7
Ithaca  135 7
Black Hawk  128 7
Almond-Bancroft  123 7
Suring  123 7
Turtle Lake  118 7
Potosi  116 7
Shullsburg  113 7
Cambria-Friesland  110 7
Gilman  107 7
Highland  84 7

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs