It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.
That leaves 10 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
There are four teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Ashwaubenon, Janesville Craig, Madison La Follette, and Madison Memorial.
That brings our total to 218 teams, leaving six more spots available for teams that finish 3-4 in conference. There are 13 such teams that finish 3-4 in conference. To figure out which six of those 13 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria.
First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league.
Most of the 13 teams had wins over a conference opponent who finished 2-5, one over a conference opponent who finished 1-6, and one who finished 0-7. So their combined tiebreaker number was 3-18. However, Valders had wins over teams that had six total wins in conference play (6-15), while Watertown and Monroe each had wins over teams that had fivve wins in conference play (5-16), and thus fill three spots.
That leaves three spots remaining, with ten teams still in contention.
Head-to-head result (since every team doesn't play every other) and result versus conference champion do not apply to any of those teams.
The next criteria is win/loss percentage against the playoff field as determined initially. All are the same there, so we go down to step 3(d), which is "Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall win/loss percentage". Under that criteria, La Crosse Logan and Kenosha Indian Trail get in thanks to conference teams they defeated having a total of seven victories.
On step 3(d) criteria, Highland, Shiocton, and Wilmot are tied for the final spot. The next tiebreaker is "Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W-L percentage." Wilmot did not have any non-conference wins, so their defeated opponents win/loss record is 6-21 (0.2857%). Highland had a non-conference victory over Cashton, who finished 2-7 overall, so Highland's defeated opponents win/loss record is 8-28 (0.2857%). Shiocton got non-conference wins over Rosholt and Tomahawk, who both went 3-6 overall. Thus their defeated opponents win/loss record is 12-33, for a percentage of 0.3636%.
Therefore, Shiocton gets the last spot in our PROJECTED WIAA playoff qualifying field.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
Division | 2017* | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1422 | 1449 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 966 | 953 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 560 | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 367 | 397 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 267 | 290 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 198 | 196 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
* - Projected thru Wk 9 |
Team | Football Enrollment | PROJECTED Division | Conference |
---|---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2587 | 1 | Southeast |
Sun Prairie | 2370 | 1 | Big Eight |
Kenosha Bradford | 2311 | 1 | Southeast |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 2247 | 1 | Milwaukee City - Richardson |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2234 | 1 | Milwaukee City - Richardson |
Green Bay Preble | 2194 | 1 | Fox River Classic |
Madison West | 2191 | 1 | Big Eight |
Arrowhead | 2175 | 1 | Classic Eight |
Middleton | 2157 | 1 | Big Eight |
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall | 2115 | 1 | Milwaukee City - Blackbourn |
Marquette University | 2106 | 1 | Greater Metro |
Oak Creek | 2077 | 1 | Southeast |
Fond du Lac | 2060 | 1 | VFA-South |
Madison Memorial | 2036 | 1 | Big Eight |
Neenah | 2026 | 1 | VFA-South |
Appleton North | 2015 | 1 | VFA-North |
Racine Horlick | 1987 | 1 | Southeast |
Bay Port | 1865 | 1 | Fox River Classic |
Janesville Craig | 1857 | 1 | Big Eight |
Hudson | 1802 | 1 | Big Rivers |
Eau Claire Memorial | 1753 | 1 | Big Rivers |
Oshkosh West | 1695 | 1 | VFA-South |
Verona | 1594 | 1 | Big Eight |
Muskego | 1590 | 1 | Classic Eight |
Wisconsin Rapids | 1564 | 1 | VFA-West |
Madison La Follette | 1559 | 1 | Big Eight |
Kimberly | 1530 | 1 | VFA-North |
Milwaukee King | 1524 | 1 | Milwaukee City - Blackbourn |
Franklin | 1508 | 1 | Southeast |
Badger | 1492 | 1 | Southern Lakes |
Sussex Hamilton | 1484 | 1 | Greater Metro |
Kettle Moraine | 1422 | 1 | Classic Eight |
Appleton West | 1418 | 2 | VFA-North |
Germantown | 1405 | 2 | Greater Metro |
Hartford | 1368 | 2 | North Shore |
Milwaukee Washington | 1349 | 2 | Milwaukee City - Blackbourn |
Watertown | 1345 | 2 | Badger - South |
Homestead | 1334 | 2 | North Shore |
Menomonee Falls | 1309 | 2 | Greater Metro |
Milwaukee Reagan | 1307 | 2 | Milwaukee City - Richardson |
Brookfield Central | 1277 | 2 | Greater Metro |
Waunakee | 1236 | 2 | Badger-North |
Brookfield East | 1216 | 2 | Greater Metro |
Greenfield | 1199 | 2 | Woodland - East |
Waukesha West | 1198 | 2 | Classic Eight |
Marshfield | 1184 | 2 | VFA-West |
Westosha Central | 1140 | 2 | Southern Lakes |
Green Bay Southwest | 1133 | 2 | Fox River Classic |
Burlington | 1131 | 2 | Southern Lakes |
Oregon | 1123 | 2 | Badger - South |
West Bend East | 1114 | 2 | North Shore |
Holmen | 1111 | 2 | Mississippi Valley |
La Crosse Central | 1110 | 2 | Mississippi Valley |
Waterford | 1088 | 2 | Southern Lakes |
Beaver Dam | 1081 | 2 | Badger-North |
Pulaski | 1078 | 2 | Fox River Classic |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1051 | 2 | Milwaukee City - Richardson |
Slinger | 1048 | 2 | North Shore |
DeForest | 1037 | 2 | Badger-North |
Ashwaubenon | 1032 | 2 | Fox River Classic |
Monona Grove | 1022 | 2 | Badger - South |
Stoughton | 1011 | 2 | Badger - South |
Menasha | 997 | 2 | Bay |
Menomonie | 966 | 2 | Big Rivers |
Greendale | 927 | 3 | Woodland - West |
Whitefish Bay | 922 | 3 | North Shore |
New Richmond | 910 | 3 | Middle Border |
Onalaska | 910 | 3 | Mississippi Valley |
West De Pere | 896 | 3 | Bay |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 870 | 3 | Badger-North |
Pewaukee | 853 | 3 | Woodland - West |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 850 | 3 | Woodland - West |
Merrill | 830 | 3 | Great Northern |
Whitnall | 816 | 3 | Woodland - East |
Antigo | 812 | 3 | Great Northern |
Port Washington | 810 | 3 | North Shore |
Plymouth | 780 | 3 | East Central |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 779 | 3 | Woodland - West |
Notre Dame | 770 | 3 | Fox River Classic |
La Crosse Logan | 755 | 3 | Mississippi Valley |
Milwaukee Lutheran | 730 | 3 | Woodland - East |
Monroe | 719 | 3 | Badger - South |
Seymour | 717 | 3 | Bay |
Rice Lake | 707 | 3 | Big Rivers |
New Berlin West | 705 | 3 | Woodland - West |
New London | 683 | 3 | Bay |
Medford | 670 | 3 | Great Northern |
Catholic Memorial | 666 | 3 | Classic Eight |
Jefferson | 657 | 3 | Rock Valley |
Evansville/Albany | 657 | 3 | Rock Valley |
Luxemburg-Casco | 639 | 3 | North Eastern |
Mosinee | 634 | 3 | Great Northern |
Kewaskum | 620 | 3 | East Central |
East Troy | 587 | 3 | Rock Valley |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 584 | 3 | North Eastern |
Berlin | 560 | 3 | East Central |
West Salem | 543 | 4 | Mississippi Valley |
Xavier | 540 | 4 | Bay |
Saint Francis | 540 | 4 | Midwest Classic |
Osceola | 536 | 4 | Middle Border |
Sheboygan Falls | 534 | 4 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Freedom | 534 | 4 | North Eastern |
Martin Luther | 508 | 4 | Metro Classic |
Mauston | 503 | 4 | South Central |
Little Chute | 497 | 4 | North Eastern |
Lodi | 495 | 4 | Capitol - North |
Wrightstown | 492 | 4 | North Eastern |
Ellsworth | 490 | 4 | Middle Border |
Winneconne | 486 | 4 | East Central |
Two Rivers | 478 | 4 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Beloit Turner | 464 | 4 | Rock Valley |
Northwestern | 456 | 4 | Heart O'North |
Kiel | 445 | 4 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Wautoma | 427 | 4 | South Central |
Saint Croix Central | 419 | 4 | Middle Border |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 418 | 4 | Coulee |
Platteville | 418 | 4 | SWC |
Lake Mills | 403 | 4 | Capitol - North |
Lakeside Lutheran | 401 | 4 | Capitol - North |
Milwaukee Career & Tech. Ed. | 399 | 4 | Milwaukee City - Blackbourn |
Nekoosa | 398 | 4 | South Central |
University School | 395 | 4 | Midwest Classic |
Chilton | 387 | 4 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Mayville | 386 | 4 | Flyway |
Bloomer | 384 | 4 | Heart O'North |
Peshtigo | 372 | 4 | MONLPC-Large |
Racine St. Catherine's | 367 | 4 | Metro Classic |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 367 | 4 | Cloverbelt |
Valders | 365 | 5 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Clinton | 364 | 5 | Rock Valley |
Horicon/Hustisford | 364 | 5 | Trailways - Large |
Westby | 363 | 5 | Coulee |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 352 | 5 | Big East |
New Holstein | 351 | 5 | Eastern Wisconsin |
Spooner | 351 | 5 | Heart O'North |
Arcadia | 345 | 5 | Coulee |
Prairie du Chien | 341 | 5 | SWC |
New Glarus/Monticello | 338 | 5 | Capitol - South |
Brookfield Academy | 330 | 5 | Midwest Classic |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 328 | 5 | Metro Classic |
Amherst | 326 | 5 | CWC-Large |
Laconia | 323 | 5 | Flyway |
Stratford | 322 | 5 | Marawood |
Southern Door | 321 | 5 | MONLPC-Large |
Wittenberg-Birnamwood | 321 | 5 | CWC-Large |
Elk Mound | 316 | 5 | Dunn - St. Croix |
Kewaunee | 310 | 5 | MONLPC-Large |
Lake Country Lutheran | 309 | 5 | Midwest Classic |
Bonduel | 304 | 5 | CWC-Large |
Oconto | 303 | 5 | MONLPC-Large |
Winnebago Lutheran | 299 | 5 | Flyway |
Saint Croix Falls | 297 | 5 | Lakeland - North |
Durand | 296 | 5 | Dunn - St. Croix |
Stanley-Boyd | 295 | 5 | Cloverbelt |
Colby | 292 | 5 | Cloverbelt |
Lancaster | 281 | 5 | SWC |
Howards Grove | 272 | 5 | Big East |
Cumberland | 272 | 5 | Heart O'North |
Mondovi | 271 | 5 | Dunn - St. Croix |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 267 | 5 | Heart O'North |
Grantsburg | 261 | 6 | Lakeland - North |
Belleville | 259 | 6 | Capitol - South |
Unity | 256 | 6 | Lakeland - North |
Cambridge | 255 | 6 | Capitol - South |
Saint Mary's Springs | 252 | 6 | Flyway |
Fall Creek | 248 | 6 | Cloverbelt |
Fennimore | 247 | 6 | SWAL |
Pardeeville | 245 | 6 | Trailways - Large |
Markesan | 243 | 6 | Trailways - Large |
Northern Elite | 243 | 6 | MONLPC-Small |
Marathon | 242 | 6 | Marawood |
Cuba City | 241 | 6 | SWAL |
Auburndale | 241 | 6 | Marawood |
Dodgeland | 238 | 6 | Trailways - Large |
Mishicot | 238 | 6 | Big East |
Crandon | 237 | 6 | MONLPC-Small |
Racine Lutheran | 234 | 6 | Metro Classic |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 226 | 6 | Six Rivers |
Melrose-Mindoro | 223 | 6 | Dairyland |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 223 | 6 | Dairyland |
Regis | 221 | 6 | Cloverbelt |
Darlington | 221 | 6 | SWAL |
Shiocton | 220 | 6 | CWC-Large |
Iola-Scandinavia | 216 | 6 | CWC-Large |
Crivitz | 211 | 6 | MONLPC-Small |
Brookwood | 209 | 6 | Scenic Bluffs |
Spring Valley | 208 | 6 | Dunn - St. Croix |
Reedsville | 206 | 6 | Big East |
Manitowoc Lutheran | 205 | 6 | Big East |
Whitehall | 200 | 6 | Dairyland |
Mineral Point | 199 | 6 | SWAL |
Lake Holcombe/Cornell | 198 | 6 | Lakeland - South |
Webster | 196 | 7 | Lakeland - North |
Wabeno/Laona | 195 | 7 | MONLPC-Small |
Johnson Creek | 194 | 7 | Trailways - Small |
Abbotsford | 192 | 7 | Cloverwood |
Edgar | 192 | 7 | Marawood |
Clear Lake | 191 | 7 | Lakeland - South |
Wauzeka/Seneca | 189 | 7 | Ridge & Valley |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 187 | 7 | Big East |
Rosholt | 186 | 7 | CWC-Small |
Pittsville | 184 | 7 | CWC-Small |
Lourdes Academy | 181 | 7 | Trailways - Small |
Potosi/Cassville | 181 | 7 | Six Rivers |
Bangor | 180 | 7 | Scenic Bluffs |
Wild Rose | 178 | 7 | CWC-Small |
Elmwood/Plum City | 174 | 7 | Lakeland - South |
New Lisbon | 171 | 7 | Scenic Bluffs |
Independence/Gilmanton | 168 | 7 | Dairyland |
Hurley | 162 | 7 | Western Peninsula Athletic |
River Ridge | 160 | 7 | Six Rivers |
De Soto | 151 | 7 | Ridge & Valley |
North Crawford | 149 | 7 | Ridge & Valley |
Assumption | 146 | 7 | Cloverwood |
Royall | 146 | 7 | Scenic Bluffs |
Loyal | 145 | 7 | Cloverwood |
Owen-Withee | 143 | 7 | Cloverwood |
Fall River | 134 | 7 | Trailways - Small |
Ithaca | 134 | 7 | Ridge & Valley |
Turtle Lake | 128 | 7 | Lakeland - South |
Almond-Bancroft | 121 | 7 | CWC-Small |
Frederic | 120 | 7 | Lakeland - South |
Cambria-Friesland | 116 | 7 | Trailways - Small |
Black Hawk | 107 | 7 | Six Rivers |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.