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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 9

10/08/2017, 11:00pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.

That leaves 10 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).

There are four teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Ashwaubenon, Janesville Craig, Madison La Follette, and Madison Memorial.

That brings our total to 218 teams, leaving six more spots available for teams that finish 3-4 in conference. There are 13 such teams that finish 3-4 in conference. To figure out which six of those 13 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria.

First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. 

Most of the 13 teams had wins over a conference opponent who finished 2-5, one over a conference opponent who finished 1-6, and one who finished 0-7. So their combined tiebreaker number was 3-18. However, Valders had wins over teams that had six total wins in conference play (6-15), while Watertown and Monroe each had wins over teams that had fivve wins in conference play (5-16), and thus fill three spots. 

That leaves three spots remaining, with ten teams still in contention.

Head-to-head result (since every team doesn't play every other) and result versus conference champion do not apply to any of those teams.

The next criteria is win/loss percentage against the playoff field as determined initially. All are the same there, so we go down to step 3(d), which is "Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall win/loss percentage". Under that criteria, La Crosse Logan and Kenosha Indian Trail get in thanks to conference teams they defeated having a total of seven victories.

On step 3(d) criteria, Highland, Shiocton, and Wilmot are tied for the final spot. The next tiebreaker is "Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W-L percentage." Wilmot did not have any non-conference wins, so their defeated opponents win/loss record is 6-21 (0.2857%). Highland had a non-conference victory over Cashton, who finished 2-7 overall, so Highland's defeated opponents win/loss record is 8-28 (0.2857%). Shiocton got non-conference wins over Rosholt and Tomahawk, who both went 3-6 overall. Thus their defeated opponents win/loss record is 12-33, for a percentage of 0.3636%.

Therefore, Shiocton gets the last spot in our PROJECTED WIAA playoff qualifying field.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

PROJECTED 2017 CUTLINES COMPARED TO PAST SEASONS

Division 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1422 1449 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 966 953 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 560 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 367 397 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 267 290 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 198 196 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195
* - Projected thru Wk 9

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Football Enrollment PROJECTED Division Conference
Kenosha Indian Trail  2587 1 Southeast
Sun Prairie  2370 1 Big Eight
Kenosha Bradford  2311 1 Southeast
Milwaukee Hamilton 2247 1 Milwaukee City - Richardson
Milwaukee Riverside 2234 1 Milwaukee City - Richardson
Green Bay Preble  2194 1 Fox River Classic
Madison West  2191 1 Big Eight
Arrowhead  2175 1 Classic Eight
Middleton  2157 1 Big Eight
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall  2115 1 Milwaukee City - Blackbourn
Marquette University  2106 1 Greater Metro
Oak Creek  2077 1 Southeast
Fond du Lac  2060 1 VFA-South
Madison Memorial  2036 1 Big Eight
Neenah  2026 1 VFA-South
Appleton North 2015 1 VFA-North
Racine Horlick  1987 1 Southeast
Bay Port  1865 1 Fox River Classic
Janesville Craig  1857 1 Big Eight
Hudson  1802 1 Big Rivers
Eau Claire Memorial  1753 1 Big Rivers
Oshkosh West  1695 1 VFA-South
Verona  1594 1 Big Eight
Muskego  1590 1 Classic Eight
Wisconsin Rapids  1564 1 VFA-West
Madison La Follette  1559 1 Big Eight
Kimberly  1530 1 VFA-North
Milwaukee King  1524 1 Milwaukee City - Blackbourn
Franklin  1508 1 Southeast
Badger  1492 1 Southern Lakes
Sussex Hamilton  1484 1 Greater Metro
Kettle Moraine  1422 1 Classic Eight
Appleton West  1418 2 VFA-North
Germantown  1405 2 Greater Metro
Hartford  1368 2 North Shore
Milwaukee Washington 1349 2 Milwaukee City - Blackbourn
Watertown  1345 2 Badger - South
Homestead  1334 2 North Shore
Menomonee Falls  1309 2 Greater Metro
Milwaukee Reagan 1307 2 Milwaukee City - Richardson
Brookfield Central  1277 2 Greater Metro
Waunakee  1236 2 Badger-North
Brookfield East  1216 2 Greater Metro
Greenfield  1199 2 Woodland - East
Waukesha West  1198 2 Classic Eight
Marshfield  1184 2 VFA-West
Westosha Central  1140 2 Southern Lakes
Green Bay Southwest  1133 2 Fox River Classic
Burlington  1131 2 Southern Lakes
Oregon  1123 2 Badger - South
West Bend East  1114 2 North Shore
Holmen  1111 2 Mississippi Valley
La Crosse Central  1110 2 Mississippi Valley
Waterford  1088 2 Southern Lakes
Beaver Dam  1081 2 Badger-North
Pulaski  1078 2 Fox River Classic
Milwaukee Bay View  1051 2 Milwaukee City - Richardson
Slinger  1048 2 North Shore
DeForest  1037 2 Badger-North
Ashwaubenon 1032 2 Fox River Classic
Monona Grove  1022 2 Badger - South
Stoughton  1011 2 Badger - South
Menasha  997 2 Bay
Menomonie  966 2 Big Rivers
Greendale  927 3 Woodland - West
Whitefish Bay  922 3 North Shore
New Richmond  910 3 Middle Border
Onalaska  910 3 Mississippi Valley
West De Pere  896 3 Bay
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  870 3 Badger-North
Pewaukee  853 3 Woodland - West
New Berlin Eisenhower 850 3 Woodland - West
Merrill  830 3 Great Northern
Whitnall 816 3 Woodland - East
Antigo  812 3 Great Northern
Port Washington  810 3 North Shore
Plymouth  780 3 East Central
Wisconsin Lutheran  779 3 Woodland - West
Notre Dame  770 3 Fox River Classic
La Crosse Logan  755 3 Mississippi Valley
Milwaukee Lutheran  730 3 Woodland - East
Monroe  719 3 Badger - South
Seymour  717 3 Bay
Rice Lake  707 3 Big Rivers
New Berlin West  705 3 Woodland - West
New London  683 3 Bay
Medford  670 3 Great Northern
Catholic Memorial  666 3 Classic Eight
Jefferson  657 3 Rock Valley
Evansville/Albany  657 3 Rock Valley
Luxemburg-Casco  639 3 North Eastern
Mosinee  634 3 Great Northern
Kewaskum  620 3 East Central
East Troy  587 3 Rock Valley
Fox Valley Lutheran  584 3 North Eastern
Berlin  560 3 East Central
West Salem  543 4 Mississippi Valley
Xavier  540 4 Bay
Saint Francis  540 4 Midwest Classic
Osceola  536 4 Middle Border
Sheboygan Falls  534 4 Eastern Wisconsin
Freedom  534 4 North Eastern
Martin Luther  508 4 Metro Classic
Mauston  503 4 South Central
Little Chute  497 4 North Eastern
Lodi  495 4 Capitol - North
Wrightstown  492 4 North Eastern
Ellsworth  490 4 Middle Border
Winneconne  486 4 East Central
Two Rivers  478 4 Eastern Wisconsin
Beloit Turner  464 4 Rock Valley
Northwestern  456 4 Heart O'North
Kiel  445 4 Eastern Wisconsin
Wautoma  427 4 South Central
Saint Croix Central  419 4 Middle Border
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau 418 4 Coulee
Platteville  418 4 SWC
Lake Mills  403 4 Capitol - North
Lakeside Lutheran  401 4 Capitol - North
Milwaukee Career & Tech. Ed. 399 4 Milwaukee City - Blackbourn
Nekoosa  398 4 South Central
University School  395 4 Midwest Classic
Chilton  387 4 Eastern Wisconsin
Mayville 386 4 Flyway
Bloomer  384 4 Heart O'North
Peshtigo  372 4 MONLPC-Large
Racine St. Catherine's 367 4 Metro Classic
Spencer/Columbus Catholic 367 4 Cloverbelt
Valders  365 5 Eastern Wisconsin
Clinton  364 5 Rock Valley
Horicon/Hustisford  364 5 Trailways - Large
Westby  363 5 Coulee
Cedar Grove-Belgium  352 5 Big East
New Holstein  351 5 Eastern Wisconsin
Spooner  351 5 Heart O'North
Arcadia  345 5 Coulee
Prairie du Chien  341 5 SWC
New Glarus/Monticello  338 5 Capitol - South
Brookfield Academy  330 5 Midwest Classic
Kenosha St. Joseph  328 5 Metro Classic
Amherst  326 5 CWC-Large
Laconia  323 5 Flyway
Stratford  322 5 Marawood
Southern Door  321 5 MONLPC-Large
Wittenberg-Birnamwood  321 5 CWC-Large
Elk Mound  316 5 Dunn - St. Croix
Kewaunee  310 5 MONLPC-Large
Lake Country Lutheran  309 5 Midwest Classic
Bonduel  304 5 CWC-Large
Oconto  303 5 MONLPC-Large
Winnebago Lutheran  299 5 Flyway
Saint Croix Falls  297 5 Lakeland - North
Durand  296 5 Dunn - St. Croix
Stanley-Boyd  295 5 Cloverbelt
Colby  292 5 Cloverbelt
Lancaster  281 5 SWC
Howards Grove  272 5 Big East
Cumberland  272 5 Heart O'North
Mondovi  271 5 Dunn - St. Croix
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser  267 5 Heart O'North
Grantsburg  261 6 Lakeland - North
Belleville  259 6 Capitol - South
Unity  256 6 Lakeland - North
Cambridge  255 6 Capitol - South
Saint Mary's Springs  252 6 Flyway
Fall Creek  248 6 Cloverbelt
Fennimore  247 6 SWAL
Pardeeville  245 6 Trailways - Large
Markesan  243 6 Trailways - Large
Northern Elite  243 6 MONLPC-Small
Marathon  242 6 Marawood
Cuba City  241 6 SWAL
Auburndale  241 6 Marawood
Dodgeland  238 6 Trailways - Large
Mishicot  238 6 Big East
Crandon  237 6 MONLPC-Small
Racine Lutheran  234 6 Metro Classic
Pecatonica/Argyle  226 6 Six Rivers
Melrose-Mindoro  223 6 Dairyland
Cochrane-Fountain City  223 6 Dairyland
Regis  221 6 Cloverbelt
Darlington  221 6 SWAL
Shiocton 220 6 CWC-Large
Iola-Scandinavia  216 6 CWC-Large
Crivitz  211 6 MONLPC-Small
Brookwood  209 6 Scenic Bluffs
Spring Valley  208 6 Dunn - St. Croix
Reedsville  206 6 Big East
Manitowoc Lutheran  205 6 Big East
Whitehall  200 6 Dairyland
Mineral Point  199 6 SWAL
Lake Holcombe/Cornell  198 6 Lakeland - South
Webster 196 7 Lakeland - North
Wabeno/Laona  195 7 MONLPC-Small
Johnson Creek  194 7 Trailways - Small
Abbotsford  192 7 Cloverwood
Edgar  192 7 Marawood
Clear Lake  191 7 Lakeland - South
Wauzeka/Seneca  189 7 Ridge & Valley
Hilbert/Stockbridge  187 7 Big East
Rosholt  186 7 CWC-Small
Pittsville 184 7 CWC-Small
Lourdes Academy  181 7 Trailways - Small
Potosi/Cassville  181 7 Six Rivers
Bangor  180 7 Scenic Bluffs
Wild Rose  178 7 CWC-Small
Elmwood/Plum City  174 7 Lakeland - South
New Lisbon  171 7 Scenic Bluffs
Independence/Gilmanton  168 7 Dairyland
Hurley  162 7 Western Peninsula Athletic
River Ridge  160 7 Six Rivers
De Soto  151 7 Ridge & Valley
North Crawford  149 7 Ridge & Valley
Assumption 146 7 Cloverwood
Royall  146 7 Scenic Bluffs
Loyal  145 7 Cloverwood
Owen-Withee  143 7 Cloverwood
Fall River  134 7 Trailways - Small
Ithaca  134 7 Ridge & Valley
Turtle Lake  128 7 Lakeland - South
Almond-Bancroft  121 7 CWC-Small
Frederic  120 7 Lakeland - South
Cambria-Friesland  116 7 Trailways - Small
Black Hawk  107 7 Six Rivers

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs