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Week 9 Football Preview: Special Playoff Scenarios Edition

10/17/2019, 8:15am CDT
By Travis Wilson

La Crosse Central and quarterback Johnny Davis need a win this week to get into the playoffs

There are several big games this week, including many that will impact conference races. However, the big story statewide is the playoffs; who is in, who needs to win to get in, who is on the bubble. As such, we're going to change up the preview this week and focus on those games that may impact playoff qualification. We will break them down on a conference-by-conference basis. To view our current Playoff Qualifying Report, click here. To check out our PROJECTED Playoff Field, click here.

WisSports.net will have a projected playoff field posted shortly after all games are completed Friday night, likely between 10:30 and 11 pm. The WIAA has indicated they will release the official playoff field around midnight, and we will be posting it immediately as well. The WIAA will be releasing the 8-team regional groupings around 1:30 am, and the actual playoff brackets and match-ups on Saturday afternoon. WisSports.net is once again your BEST source for the brackets and other playoff information so be sure to visit WSN frequently and hit refresh often.

Please note, this report assumes several things:

    • All teams that are currently playoff-eligible (meaning they've guaranteed themselves at least a .500 conference record) will get in the playoffs. Every year since 2012 has seen every team that finished .500 or better in conference make the playoff field.. There is a chance that one or two .500 teams could miss out via tiebreakers if multiple games go a certain way, but it is unlikely and for the sake of time and space, we didn't address those games in the write-ups.
    • For the first time since the WIAA tweaked the criteria a few years ago, a team or teams that finish 2-3 in conference play will have an outside chance of making the playoffs. It will come down to how many teams end up 
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(Conference record in parenthesis)

Badger-North

Sauk Prairie (3-3) at Beaver Dam (2-4) – A win for Sauk Prairie gets the Eagles in for the first time since 2007 and eliminates Beaver Dam. A Beaver Dam win would put both on the bubble, with Beaver Dam holding a better tiebreaker number and likely to get in, while Sauk Prairie would have a poor tiebreaker number and be dependent on how many 3-4 teams are needed to fill out the 224-team field.

In: DeForest, Waunakee, Reedsburg

Out: Baraboo, Mount Horeb/Barneveld, Portage

Badger-South

Oregon (2-4) at Fort Atkinson (0-6) – Oregon would be eliminated with a loss, which would be very shocking. A Panthers victory gets them on the bubble, with a strong tiebreaker number thanks to a win over Monroe (as long as Monroe wins as well).

Edgewood (1-5) at Monroe (3-3) – Monroe is a heavy favorite and would get in with a win, while a loss would leave them on the bubble, but thanks to a win over Milton, they would likely still get in via the tiebreaker procedure.

In: Milton, Stoughton, Watertown, Monona Grove

Out: Edgewood, Fort Atkinson

Bay

Seymour (3-4) at New London (5-2) – Seymour has a very tough road game at New London, where a win gets the Thunder in while a loss keeps them at home for the postseason.

Green Bay West (0-7) at Shawano (3-4) – A win for Shawano gets them in, while a loss would be very surprising and leave the Hawks out.

In: West De Pere, Menasha, New London, Xavier

Out: Waupaca, Green Bay East, Green Bay West

Big East

Ozaukee (3-5) at Howards Grove (2-6) – Ozaukee is out with a loss but a win almost certainly puts them in as a 4-5 conference team.

Oostburg (5-3) at Kohler/Sheb. Lutheran/Christian (3-5) – The Kohler co-op is out with a loss but a victory would very likely get the team into the postseason, as we project all teams that finish 4-5 in conference play will get in.

In: Hilbert, Cedar Grove-Belgium, Random Lake, Reedsville, Oostburg

Out: Howards Grove, Mishicot, Manitowoc Lutheran

Big Eight

Madison West (4-4) at Sun Prairie (5-3) – Madison West guarantees a spot with a win, while a loss still very likely results in the Regents making it into the playoffs.

Verona (6-2) at Madison East (3-5) – If Madison East can pull off the upset of the year in the conference, they almost certainly be in with a 4-5 league record. A loss keeps the Purgolders out of the playoffs.

In: Madison Memorial, Verona, Middleton, Madison La Follette, Sun Prairie

Out: Beloit Memorial, Janesville Craig, Janesville Parker

Big Rivers

Eau Claire Memorial (3-3) at Menomonie (5-1) – Eau Claire Memorial guarantees itself a spot with a win over a pretty banged up Menomonie squad. A loss would have the Old Abes sweating out tiebreakers. Their numbers in the first few tiebreaker criteria aren’t very strong, but if it goes down the list a ways to defeated opponents’ overall win/loss percentage, they have a strong number there.

Chippewa Falls (2-4) at Hudson (4-2) – Chippewa Falls has found itself on the playoff bubble an awful lot the last few years, and this season is no different. A loss keeps them at home, but a win gets them in the hunt for a spot with a pretty strong tiebreaker number amongst the teams that finish 3-4 in conference.

In: Menomonie, River Falls, Hudson, Superior

Out: Rice Lake, Eau Claire North

Capitol-North

Poynette (0-4) at Columbus (2-2) – Columbus is in with a win, while a loss likely puts them out, though could be one of the higher 2-3 conference teams if it does come to it.

Lodi (2-2) at Lakeside Lutheran (2-2) – This is likely an elimination game, but the loser would have an outside chance at making it, though the chances would be slim, and dependent on what happens with other teams.

Lake Mills (4-0) at Watertown Luther Prep (2-2) – If Watertown Luther Prep can pull off the shocker, they are in. If they can’t, they have a very slim chance of making the playoffs, and it would depend a lot on Lakeside Lutheran beating Lodi, which would improve WLP’s tiebreaker number since they beat Lakeside.

In: Lake Mills

Out: Poynette

Capitol-South

Belleville (1-2) at New Glarus/Monticello (2-1) – Belleville has won just one conference game, but because the Capitol-South is a five-team league, they remain alive for a playoff spot. 

In: Cambridge, New Glarus/Monticello, Marshall

Out: Waterloo

Classic Eight

Arrowhead (4-3) at Kettle Moraine (3-4) – Kettle Moraine knocked off Catholic Memorial early in the year, but it will be for playoff-naught if the Lasers cannot beat Arrowhead. A win gets them in, a loss keeps them out.

In: Muskego, Catholic Memorial, Mukwonago, Arrowhead, Waukesha West

Out: Waukesha North, Oconomowoc, Waukesha South

Cloverbelt

Neillsville/Granton (3-4) at Regis (7-0) – Neillsville/Granton winning would not only get them in the playoffs but be the shocker of the year. A loss sends them home.

Colby (6-1) at Stanley-Boyd (3-4) – A win for Stanley-Boyd gets the Orioles in while a loss keeps them out for the first time since 2009. 

In: Regis, Colby, Osseo-Fairchild, Spencer/Columbus Catholic

Out: Cadott, Altoona, Fall Creek

Cloverwood

Greenwood (3-3) at Thorp (2-4) – A win by Greenwood would make it nice and easy – the Greyhounds would be in and Thorp would be out. A win by Thorp puts both on the bubble, both with a solid tiebreaker number.

In: Abbotsford, Loyal, Gilman, Athens

Out: Assumption, Owen-Withee

CWC-Large

In: Amherst, Manawa, Bonduel, Wittenberg-Birnamwood

Out: Shiocton, Iola-Scandinavia, Weyauwega-Fremont

CWC-Small

Pacelli (1-3) at Wild Rose (0-4) – A loss for Pacelli would keep the team out, while a win would technically keep them alive but unlikely to make it in due to a weak tiebreaker.

In: Almond-Bancroft, Pittsville, Rosholt

Out: Menominee Indian, Wild Rose

Dairyland

Augusta (3-3) at Cochrane-Fountain City (1-5) – Augusta is in with a win, while a loss would leave them on the bubble, though with a pretty decent tiebreaker number.

Whitehall (3-3) at Eleva-Strum (4-2) -- Whitehall would be in with a win, while they are very likely to get in with a loss still in the 3-4 conference record tiebreakers thanks to a victory over Blair-Taylor.

Melrose-Mindoro (3-3) at Independence/Gilmanton (0-6) – Melrose-Mindoro clinches with a win but likely makes it in even if they are somehow upset due in large part to a win over Pepin/Alma.

In: Blair-Taylor, Pepin/Alma, Eleva-Strum

Out: Cochrane-Fountain City, Independence/Gilmanton

Dunn-St. Croix

Colfax (2-3) at Spring Valley (4-1) – A win for Colfax would be surprising but get them in. A loss leaves them at home.

In: Mondovi, Spring Valley, Elk Mound, Durand

Out: Boyceville, Glenwood City

East Central

Campbellsport (3-3) at Winneconne (3-3) – The winner is in for sure. The loser has a strong chance of getting in due to a strong tiebreaker.

Ripon (3-3) at Kewaskum (4-2) – Ripon is in with a victory but would stand a strong chance of getting in even if they lose due to a win over Winneconne.

In: Plymouth, Kewaskum, Berlin

Out: Kettle Moraine Lutheran, Waupun

Eastern Wisconsin

New Holstein (3-3) at Brillion (3-3) – The winner of this game makes it into the playoffs. The loser would be on the bubble, and both would be helped greatly if Two Rivers can win. 

Two Rivers (2-4) at Kiel (6-0) – Two Rivers is out with a loss, but if they can beat the league-leading Purple Raiders they would likely make it in on one of the first tiebreaker criteria for 3-4 league teams.

In: Kiel, Chilton, Sheboygan Falls

Out: Roncalli, Valders

Flyway

Mayville (1-4) at Laconia (2-3) – Laconia is out with a loss and in with a win.

Lomira (4-1) at Omro (2-3) – Omro is out with a loss and in with a win.

In: Saint Mary’s Springs, Lomira, Winnebago Lutheran

Out: Mayville, North Fond du Lac

Fox River Classic 

Ashwaubenon (6-2) at De Pere (4-4) – De Pere clinches with a victory, though the Redbirds are likely in even if they lose, as it appears all teams that finish 4-5 in conference will make it.

Sheboygan North (1-7) at Green Bay Southwest (3-5) – Southwest is out with a loss and likely in with a win, as it appears once again all 4-5 conference teams will make it in.

Notre Dame (1-7) at Manitowoc Lincoln (3-5) – Manitowoc Lincoln hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2014 but can almost certainly end that drought with a win. A loss ends the season for the Ships.

Green Bay Preble (4-4) at Sheboygan South (2-6) – Preble is in with a victory, and almost certainly makes it in even if they lose, as all 4-5 conference teams are almost certain to make it.

In: Bay Port, Pulaski, Ashwaubenon

Out: Sheboygan South, Notre Dame, Sheboygan North

Great Northern

Rhinelander (2-3) at Ashland (0-5) – Rhinelander is in with a victory and out with a loss.

Medford (5-0) at Merrill (2-3) – If Merrill can hand Medford its first loss, the Blue Jays will be in. A loss ends Merrill’s playoff hopes.

Antigo (2-3) at Mosinee (4-1) – Antigo misses with a loss and is in with a win.

In: Medford, Mosinee, Lakeland

Out: Ashland

Greater Metro

Sussex Hamilton (3-4) at Menomonee Falls (6-1) – Sussex Hamilton must win to get in the playoffs, or be left out. Menomonee Falls will be playing for a share of the Greater Metro Conference title, however.

In: Brookfield Central, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield East, Marquette, Germantown

Out: Wauwatosa West, West Allis Hale, Wauwatosa East

Heart O’North

Spooner (3-5) at Barron (1-7) – Spooner is out with a loss but almost certainly in with a victory.

Saint Croix Falls (4-4) at Ladysmith (2-6) – Saint Croix Falls can clinch with a victory but is almost certain to get in even with a loss.

Chetek-Weyerhaeuser (3-5) at Northwestern (8-0) – Chetek-Weyerhaeuser is out with a loss, but if they can pull off a huge shocker, the Bulldogs almost certainly make it.

In: Northwestern, Cumberland, Bloomer, Hayward

Out: Ladysmith, Barron, Cameron

Independent

Crivitz (N/A) at Northland Pines (N/A) Non-Conference – Northland Pines would get in as an Independent team with a win to get them to 5-4 overall. If they lose, they drop to 4-5 and are not eligible for the postseason according to the WIAA.

In: Hurley

Out: Wausau East, Kenosha Christian Life

Lakeland

Turtle Lake (3-3) at Flambeau (0-6) – Turtle Lake is in with a win, while a loss would keep them on the bubble and dependent on how other teams do, though still with a decent shot to get in.

Clear Lake (3-3) at Webster (2-4) – This is a big game, as a win for Clear Lake gets them in and leaves Webster out. A Webster win puts both on the bubble, but a solid bet to make it in. Clear Lake’s tiebreaker number would increase if Turtle Lake wins.

In: Unity, Lake Holcombe/Cornell, Grantsburg

Out: Elmwood/Plum City, Flambeau

Marawood

Auburndale (2-2) at Rib Lake/Prentice (0-4) – A win for Auburndale puts them in while a loss likely leaves them out, though there would be a slim chance they could sneak in.

Marathon (2-3) at Hurley (N/A) Non-Conference – Marathon plays Hurley in a non-conference game so their 2-3 conference record is set. They have a very small chance of making it in.

In: Stratford, Edgar

Out: Tomahawk, Rib Lake/Prentice

Metro Classic

Kenosha St. Joseph (3-3) at Racine St. Catherine’s (5-1) – St. Joe’s is in with an upset victory, while a loss leaves them on the bubble. Their tiebreaker numbers aren’t especially strong in the early part of criteria, but they would have a chance if there are enough teams to warrant going further down the list of tiebreakers.

In: Racine Lutheran, Racine St. Catherine’s, Martin Luther, Catholic Central

Out: Dominican, Shoreland Lutheran, Saint Thomas More

Middle Border

Somerset (2-4) at Baldwin-Woodville (5-1) – Somerset is out with a loss but likely to make it in with a victory as they’d be very high on the tiebreaker criteria amongst 3-4 conference teams.

Osceola (4-2) at Ellsworth (3-3) – Ellsworth can clinch a spot with a victory, but have a strong chance of making it in even with a loss. The Panthers’ first tiebreaker, combined conference winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, isn’t very strong, but they beat playoff team Loyal, and that will help them on the next step.

In: Baldwin-Woodville, New Richmond, Osceola, Saint Croix Central

Out: Prescott, Amery

Midwest Classic

In: Lake Country Lutheran, Brookfield Academy, Saint Francis, Saint John’s Northwest Military, University School

Out: HOPE Christian, Living Word Lutheran

Milwaukee City-Blackbourn

In: Milwaukee Reagan, Milwaukee Vincent, Milwaukee South, Milwaukee Pulaski, Obama SCTE

Out: Milwaukee North, Milwaukee Madison

Milwaukee City-Richardson

In: Milwaukee King, Milwaukee Riverside, Milwaukee Marshall, Milwaukee Bradley Tech

Out: Milwaukee Hamilton, Milwaukee Bay View, Milwaukee Washington

Mississippi Valley

La Crosse Central (2-3) at West Salem (0-5) – La Crosse Central is in with a win and out with a loss.

In: Onalaska, Sparta, Holmen

Out: La Crosse Logan, Tomah, West Salem

MONLPC-Large

Southern Door (2-3) at Bonduel (N/A) Non-Conference – Southern Door will finish 2-3 in league play and while it is unlikely the team gets in, there would be a thinnest glimmer of hope.

Oconto (2-3) at Sturgeon Bay (0-4) – Oconto has already been awarded a forfeit victory for this game and will finish 2-3 in league play, though at 2-7 overall with very poor tiebreaker numbers, the Blue Devils stand almost no chance of making it.

In: Kewaunee, Peshtigo

Out: Sturgeon Bay

MONLPC-Small

In: Coleman, Crivitz

Out: Crandon, Northern Elite

North Eastern

Luxemburg-Casco (3-4) at Wrightstown (6-1) – Luxemburg-Casco is in with a win and out with a loss.

In: Freedom, Wrightstown, Fox Valley Lutheran, Denmark, Little Chute

Out: Oconto Falls, Marinette, Clintonville

North Shore

West Bend East (4-4) at Cedarburg (3-5) – A West Bend East win puts the Suns in and knocks Cedarburg out. If Cedarburg wins, both teams almost certainly get in the playoffs as 4-5 league teams.

Homestead (6-2) at Nicolet (3-5) – Nicolet is looking to end a playoff drought that dates back to 1989, the team’s only postseason appearance, and the Knights must win to get in, almost certainly. A loss keeps the drought alive.

Whitefish Bay (4-4) at Slinger (6-2) – Whitefish Bay is almost certain to get in even if they lose, but a win guarantees a spot for the Blue Dukes.

In: Hartford, Slinger, Homestead, Grafton

Out: Port Washington, West Bend West

Ridge & Valley

North Crawford (0-6) at Riverdale (2-4) – Riverdale can get on the bubble with a win, where their tiebreaker numbers as a 3-4 team aren’t especially strong, but they’d be alive with a shot.

Ithaca (5-1) at Wonewoc/Weston (2-4) – Wonewoc/Weston is out with a loss, while a win likely gets them in due to a good tiebreaker number on the first criteria of combined conference winning percentage of defeated conference opponents.

In: Ithaca, Wauzeka/Seneca, De Soto, Highland

Out: Kickapoo/La Farge, North Crawford

Rock Valley

East Troy (4-4) at Turner (2-6) – East Troy is in with a win and likely still makes the postseason even if they lose, as it appears all teams that finish 4-5 in conference will make it.

McFarland (5-3) at Brodhead/Juda (4-4) – McFarland is in with a win and likely still makes the postseason even if they lose, as it appears all teams that finish 4-5 in conference will make it.

Big Foot (4-4) at Edgerton (7-1) – Big Foot is in with a win and likely still makes the postseason even if they lose, as it appears all teams that finish 4-5 in conference will make it.

In: Evansville, Edgerton, Jefferson, McFarland

Out: Turner, Whitewater, Clinton

Scenic Bluffs

In: Bangor, Cashton, Brookwood, Hillsboro

Out: New Lisbon, Royall, Necedah

Six Rivers

Southwestern (2-3) at River Ridge (2-3) – A win-or-go-home game, as the victor gets in the playoffs and the loser is left out.

In: Black Hawk/Warren (IL), Benton/Scales Mound (IL)/Shullsburg, Potosi/Cassville

Out: Pecatonica/Argyle, Boscobel

South Central

Wautoma (3-3) at Nekoosa (3-3) – The winner clinches a postseason spot. The loser has a very weak tiebreaker option and would likely depend on all 3-4 league teams making the playoffs.

Adams-Friendship (2-4) at G-E-T (6-0) – Adams-Friendship can get on the playoff bubble with a very strong chance to get into the postseason with a win. A loss eliminates the Green Devils.

In: G-E-T, Mauston, Black River Falls

Out: Wisconsin Dells, Westfield

Southeast

Racine Park (2-4) at Kenosha Bradford (2-4) – The loser is eliminated. The winner gets on the playoff bubble, with a very good chance to get in with a strong tiebreaker in the criteria of combined conference winning percentage of defeated conference opponents.

Kenosha Indian Trail (5-1) at Racine Case (3-3) – Case is in with a win, but their first tiebreaker number is likely going to get them in even if they lose.

In: Franklin, Kenosha Indian Trail, Oak Creek

Out: Kenosha Tremper, Racine Horlick

Southern Lakes

Waterford (6-0) at Badger (3-3) – Badger is in with a win but on the bubble with a loss. Their first tiebreaker number should be good enough to get them in at 3-4 in league, however.

Westosha Central (2-4) at Union Grove (2-4) – The loser is out for sure. The winner ends up on the playoff bubble, where Westosha Central’s tiebreaker number would be pretty weak and put them towards the bottom of the list of 3-4 teams. Union Grove, thanks to a win over Badger, would stand a much better chance of getting in on the tiebreaker procedure.

In: Waterford, Wilmot, Burlington

Out: Elkhorn, Delavan-Darien

SWAL

Cuba City (2-4) at Darlington (3-3) – A Darlington win gets the Redbirds in and keeps Cuba City out. If Cuba City gets the victory, both end up on the bubble. Darlington would have a good shot to make it in, especially if Fennimore wins to improve their tiebreaker. Cuba City would likely get in as well thanks to the win over Darlington.

Iowa-Grant (1-5) at Fennimore (2-4) – Fennimore is out with a loss. A win puts them on the bubble, where their tiebreaker numbers would be very weak at every step of the criteria, and they’d likely need to hope that all 3-4 conference teams get in.

In: Mineral Point, Lancaster, Aquinas

Out: Iowa-Grant, Luther

SWC

Richland Center (2-4) at Arcadia (3-3) – Arcadia is in with a win, which would also eliminate Richland Center. For the Hornets, after a lengthy conference losing streak, two wins in a row has them at least in the hunt for the first time in years. A win would be surprising, but likely get Richland Center in the postseason.

In: River Valley, Platteville, Prairie du Chien

Out: Viroqua, Westby, Dodgeville

Trailways-Large

Dodgeland (2-3) at Horicon/Hustisford (5-0) – Dodgeland would be in the playoffs if they can pull off the upset of league-leading Horicon/Hustisford, but the Trojans would miss the postseason with a loss.

In: Horicon/Hustisford, Palmyra-Eagle, Markesan, Pardeeville

Out: Montello/Princeton/Green Lake, Parkview/Albany

Trailways-Small

Cambria-Friesland (2-2) at Randolph (2-2) – There is a high likelihood this is an elimination game, with the winner getting in for sure while the loser would have a very small chance of making it in the playoffs.

In: Johnson Creek, Lourdes Academy

Out: Fall River/Rio, Deerfield

VFA-North

In: Kimberly, Appleton North, Kaukauna, Appleton East

Out: Appleton West

VFA-South

In: Fond du Lac, Hortonville, Neenah

Out: Oshkosh West, Oshkosh North

VFA-West

Stevens Point (1-6) at D.C. Everest (3-4) – Everest is in with a win but left out if they lose.

Wisconsin Rapids (3-4) at Wausau West (0-7) – Wisconsin Rapids would make the playoffs if they win but miss if they lose.

In: Marshfield

Out: Stevens Point, Wausau West

Woodland (East and West)

Greenfield (3-4) at New Berlin Eisenhower (6-1) – The Woodland crossovers count in the standings, meaning Greenfield can get in with a win, while they’d be left out with a loss.

Milwaukee Lutheran (3-4) at Pewaukee (4-3) – With the Woodland Conference crossovers counting in the standings, Milwaukee Lutheran can get into the playoffs with a victory, while a loss would leave them out.

Cudahy (3-4) at Wisconsin Lutheran (3-4) – This is a winner-take-all game where the victor gets into the playoffs while the loser is left out.

In: Whitnall, South Milwaukee, New Berlin Eisenhower, Greendale, New Berlin West, Pewaukee

Out: Brown Deer, Shorewood/Messmer, Pius XI Catholic, West Allis Central

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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