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"You have to be able to run the football late in the season."

You hear that cliched phrase from college and NFL announcers every year, but it holds true much more so in high school football than anywhere else.

As the weather turns colder and the field and playing conditions deteriorate, we see year in and year out examples of pass-happy teams that go down as the playoffs progress. Of course, they also start to face stronger competition as well, who are often better-equipped and better-prepared to slow down the increasingly common spread offenses.

In reviewing data from the past ten seasons of state football finals, from 2009 to 2018, the team with fewer pass attempts on the season had a 42-28-1 record in the championship contests, good for a 60.7% win-loss percentage.

In most years, even the instances where the team that threw the ball more ended up winning, the difference in total pass attempts was relatively close. In games where the winning team threw it considerably more than the losing team, Catholic Memorial's win over West De Pere in the Division 3 championship game last year provided the largest difference. The Crusaders threw it 300 times with junior quarterback Luke Fox, who ended up as a WFCA Large School All-State choice this season, while West De Pere attempted just 114 passes, a difference of 186. 

Other examples of a winning team attempting at least 100 more passes on the season than the losing team include Racine St. Catherine's (160) and Saint Croix Central (54) in 2018, Saint Mary's Springs (181) and Darlington (83) in 2015, Stanley-Boyd (231) and Lancaster (121) in 2013, and Edgar (156) and Regis (38) in 2009.

A win-loss percentage of above 60% over a ten year span is significant.

What is even more significant is the relationship between the number of passes attempted in a state championship game.

Certainly the data is skewed a bit by teams being forced to pass late in games to try to come back, but in the past ten seasons, the team with fewer pass attempts is 51-19 in state championship games, a win-loss percentage of 72.9%.

Only four times in the past ten years has the winning team attempted at least ten more passes than the losing team: Racine St. Catherine's (22) and Saint Croix Central (4) in 2018, Saint Mary's Springs (18) and Regis (3) in 2012, Kimberly (31) and Arrowhead (16) in 2015, and Catholic Memorial (29) and West De Pere (17) in 2018.

Only turnover margin has a more significant impact on an outcome, with the team that wins the turnover battle going 46-7 over the last ten years for an 86.8% mark, while the title game contenders had the same number of turnovers on 17 occasions.

Perhaps it means nothing ultimately, but based on the number of pass attempts so far this year, here are the results:

Division 1: Muskego (45), Bay Port (106)
Division 2: Brookfield East (163), Waunakee (168)
Division 3: DeForest (130), Menasha (172)
Division 4: Kiel (130), Catholic Memorial (250)
Division 5: Stratford (121), Lake Country Lutheran (157)
Division 6: Regis (66), Saint Mary's Springs (120)
Division 7: Black Hawk/Warren (92), Edgar (102)

This season, Catholic Memorial has the most passing yards per game of any team at state, as the Crusaders and All-State quarterback Luke Fox average 176.5 yards per game through the air. That places them 39th in the state, and the next closest state qualifier is Waunakee, who is 97th at 129.5 passing yards per game. 

Conversely, six teams are in the top 30 in the state in rushing yards per game and 12 are in the top 100.

Running the football is important this late in the season, cliche and all, and there's a good chance the emphasis teams are able to place on the ground game will play a significant role in determining who gets to hoist the coveted gold balls this weekend.

Below is full historical information going back ten years on the relationship between season pass attempts, title game pass attempts, turnovers, and winning.

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.