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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 9

10/11/2021, 5:30pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 190 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, including Milwaukee Vincent, who we project to go 3-2 in league play. We are working under the assumption that the Week 9 MPS crossovers will count as conference games in the standings, but working to confirm.

That leaves 34 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 46 teams finishing 3-4 in league play and eligible for those 34 spots. In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.


PROJECTED 2021 CUTLINES COMPARED TO PAST SEASONS

Division 2021* 2020* 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1441 N/A 1492 1360 1422 1449 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 1014 N/A 1038 957 966 953 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 591 N/A 628 543 540 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 419 N/A 423 398 367 397 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 298 N/A 299 271 261 290 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 214 N/A 197 197 194 196 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Enrollment Conference Projected Div Step
Milwaukee Marshall  2578 Milwaukee-Richardson 1 1b
Sun Prairie  2520 Big Eight 1 1b
Kenosha Indian Trail  2329 Southeast 1 2.3d
Middleton  2283 Big Eight 1 1b
Madison Memorial  2183 Big Eight 1 1b
Oak Creek  2113 Southeast 1 1b
Arrowhead  2088 Classic Eight 1 1b
Stevens Point  2028 VFA 1 1b
Fond du Lac  2018 FVA 1 1b
Kenosha Bradford  2014 Southeast 1 1b
Neenah  2014 FVA 1 2.2
Bay Port  1899 FRCC-North 1 1b
Marquette University  1844 Greater Metro 1 1b
Hudson  1832 Big Rivers 1 1b
Milwaukee Hamilton  1802 Milwaukee-Richardson 1 1b
D.C. Everest 1771 VFA 1 1b
Appleton North  1735 FVA 1 1b
Janesville Craig  1714 Badger-Large 1 1b
Muskego  1688 Classic Eight 1 1b
Oconomowoc  1682 Classic Eight 1 2.2
Verona  1676 Big Eight 1 1b
Oshkosh West  1675 FVA 1 2.2
Mukwonago  1653 Classic Eight 1 1b
Madison La Follette  1602 Big Eight 1 2.2
Kimberly  1586 FVA 1 1b
Franklin  1547 Southeast 1 1b
Manitowoc Lincoln  1507 FRCC-South 1 1b
Wisconsin Rapids  1482 VFA 1 1b
Sussex Hamilton  1462 Greater Metro 1 1b
Chippewa Falls  1455 Big Rivers 1 1b
Wausau West  1445 VFA 1 1b
Milwaukee King  1441 Milwaukee-Richardson 1 1b
Racine Horlick  1409 Southeast 2 2.2
De Pere  1395 FRCC-North 2 1b
Milwaukee Reagan  1385 Milwaukee-Blackbourn 2 1b
Waunakee  1356 Badger-Large 2 1b
Germantown 1352 Greater Metro 2 1b
Brookfield East  1345 Greater Metro 2 1b
Badger  1339 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Hartford  1331 North Shore 2 1b
Kettle Moraine  1298 Classic Eight 2 1b
Homestead  1270 North Shore 2 1b
Marshfield  1219 VFA 2 2.3c
Kaukauna  1208 FVA 2 1b
Watertown  1208 Badger-Large 2 2.2
Pulaski  1196 FRCC-North 2 1b
Waukesha West  1191 Classic Eight 2 2.2
Monona Grove  1146 Badger-Small 2 1b
Brookfield Central  1146 Greater Metro 2 2.2
Westosha Central  1136 Southern Lakes 2 2.3d
River Falls  1097 Mississippi Valley 2 1b
Beaver Dam  1094 Badger-Large 2 2.2
Nicolet  1090 North Shore 2 1b
Cedarburg  1072 North Shore 2 1b
Milwaukee Vincent  1072 Milwaukee-Blackbourn 2 1b
La Crosse Central  1059 Mississippi Valley 2 1b
West De Pere  1046 FRCC-North 2 1b
Burlington  1044 Southern Lakes 2 1b
South Milwaukee  1041 Woodland 2 2.3d
Wauwatosa West  1039 Parkland 2 1b
Waterford  1034 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Slinger  1032 North Shore 2 2.2
Menomonie  1027 Big Rivers 2 1b
DeForest  1014 Badger-Large 2 1b
Union Grove  993 Southern Lakes 3 1b
New Richmond  991 Big Rivers 3 1b
Ashwaubenon  981 FRCC-North 3 2.2
Fort Atkinson  980 Badger-Small 3 1b
Whitefish Bay  975 North Shore 3 1b
Onalaska  951 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Greendale  942 Woodland 3 1b
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  913 Badger-Small 3 1b
Baraboo  911 Badger-Small 3 1b
Menasha  910 FRCC-South 3 1b
Wisconsin Lutheran  883 Woodland 3 1b
Pewaukee  866 Parkland 3 1b
Whitnall  831 Woodland 3 1b
Port Washington  796 East Central 3 1b
Rhinelander  792 Great Northern 3 1b
Notre Dame  780 FRCC-South 3 1b
McFarland  763 Rock Valley 3 1b
Portage  753 Badger-Small 3 2.2
Lakeland  750 Great Northern 3 2.2
New Berlin West  748 Parkland 3 2.3d
New Berlin Eisenhower  732 Parkland 3 1b
Plymouth  728 East Central 3 1b
Rice Lake  726 Big Rivers 3 1b
Monroe  717 Rock Valley 3 1b
Grafton  692 Woodland 3 1b
Medford  667 Great Northern 3 1b
Fox Valley Lutheran  658 Bay 3 1b
Mosinee  618 Great Northern 3 1b
Luxemburg-Casco  603 North Eastern 3 1b
Jefferson  597 Rock Valley 3 1b
Martin Luther  593 Metro Classic 3 1b
Waupaca  591 Bay 3 1b
Kewaskum  568 East Central 4 1b
Wisconsin Dells  549 South Central 4 1b
Catholic Memorial  547 Parkland 4 1b
West Salem  539 Mississippi Valley 4 1b
Winneconne  537 Bay 4 1b
Freedom  535 North Eastern 4 1b
Kettle Moraine Lutheran  522 East Central 4 2.2
Osceola  518 Middle Border 4 1b
Two Rivers  516 Eastern Wisconsin 4 2.2
Mauston  507 South Central 4 1b
Xavier  500 Bay 4 1b
Edgewood  499 Rock Valley 4 1b
Lake Mills  496 Capitol 4 1b
Big Foot  496 Capitol 4 2.2
Berlin  495 East Central 4 1b
Ellsworth  488 Middle Border 4 1b
Altoona  486 Coulee 4 1b
Denmark  483 North Eastern 4 1b
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian  479 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Sheboygan Falls  478 East Central 4 1b
Platteville  471 SWC 4 1b
Racine St. Catherine's  467 Metro Classic 4 1b
Oconto Falls  465 Northwoods 4 1b
Baldwin-Woodville  456 Middle Border 4 2.2
Lodi  450 Capitol 4 1b
Wrightstown  445 North Eastern 4 1b
Adams-Friendship  435 South Central 4 2.2
Columbus  433 Capitol 4 1b
Kiel  430 Eastern Wisconsin 4 2.2
Prescott  429 Middle Border 4 1b
Lakeside Lutheran  428 Capitol 4 1b
Northwestern  419 Heart O’North 4 1b
Campbellsport  417 Flyway 5 1b
University School  410 Metro Classic 5 1b
River Valley  408 SWC 5 1b
Clintonville  401 Packerland 5 1b
Richland Center  400 SWC 5 1b
Watertown Luther Prep  397 Capitol 5 2.2
Brodhead/Juda  393 SWC 5 1b
Arcadia  387 Coulee 5 1b
Bloomer  386 Heart O’North 5 1b
Tomahawk  372 Northwoods 5 1b
Prairie du Chien  371 SWC 5 1b
Mayville  369 Flyway 5 1b
Amherst  347 CWC-Large 5 1b
Lake Country Lutheran  347 Metro Classic 5 1b
Brillion  339 Eastern Wisconsin 5 1b
New Holstein  337 Eastern Wisconsin 5 1b
Southern Door  335 Packerland 5 1b
Saint Croix Falls  333 Heart O’North 5 1b
Spencer/Columbus Catholic  333 CWC-Large 5 1b
Stanley-Boyd  330 Cloverbelt 5 1b
Kewaunee  324 Packerland 5 1b
Westby  324 Coulee 5 1b
Brookfield Academy  323 Midwest Classic 5 1b
Racine Lutheran 318 Midwest Classic 5 1b
Wittenberg-Birnamwood  317 CWC-Large 5 1b
Poynette  312 South Central 5 1b
Winnebago Lutheran  309 Flyway 5 1b
Belleville  303 SWAL 5 1b
Aquinas  302 Coulee 5 1b
Stratford  301 CWC-Large 5 1b
Valders  299 Eastern Wisconsin 5 2.2
Marshall  298 Eastern Suburban 5 1b
Cedar Grove-Belgium  297 Big East 6 1b
Durand  295 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Cumberland  290 Heart O’North 6 1b
Lancaster  290 SWAL 6 1b
Saint Mary's Springs  288 Flyway 6 1b
Unity  285 Lakeland 6 1b
Cambridge  284 Eastern Suburban 6 2.3d
Oconto  284 Packerland 6 2.3d
Colby  281 Marawood 6 1b
Howards Grove  276 Big East 6 1b
Mondovi  272 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Markesan  271 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Darlington  264 SWAL 6 1b
Waterloo  259 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Bonduel  254 Packerland 6 1b
Cadott  245 Dunn-St. Croix 6 2.2
Benton/Scales Mound/Shullsburg  243 Six Rivers 6 2.2
Cuba City  242 SWAL 6 1b
Fall Creek  237 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Luther  237 Scenic Bluffs 6 1b
Pardeeville  237 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Melrose-Mindoro  234 Dairyland 6 1b
Kenosha St. Joseph  233 Midwest Classic 6 1b
Necedah  231 Scenic Bluffs 6 1b
Whitehall  230 Dairyland 6 1b
Auburndale  227 Marawood 6 1b
Mineral Point  227 SWAL 6 2.2
Abbotsford 222 Marawood 6 1b
Grantsburg  219 Lakeland 6 1b
Ozaukee  217 Big East 6 2.3d
Augusta  215 Dairyland 6 1b
Crivitz  214 Northwoods 6 1b
Boyceville  207 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Spring Valley  204 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Cashton  204 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Coleman  202 Northwoods 7 1b
Iola-Scandinavia  200 CWC-Small 7 1b
Regis  198 Cloverbelt 7 1b
Black Hawk/Warren 197 Six Rivers 7 1b
Webster 196 Lakeland 7 1b
Elmwood/Plum City  190 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Glenwood City  188 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
River Ridge  187 Six Rivers 7 1b
Johnson Creek  187 Trailways 7 1b
Randolph 185 Trailways 7 1b
Reedsville  182 Big East 7 1b
Hurley 181 Lakeland 7 1b
Bangor  181 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Blair-Taylor  179 Dairyland 7 2.3c
Edgar 175 Marawood 7 1b
Potosi/Cassville  172 Six Rivers 7 1b
Pacelli  168 CWC-Small 7 1b
Lourdes Academy  166 Trailways 7 1b
Hilbert  158 Big East 7 1b
Loyal  155 CWC-Small 7 1b
Wauzeka/Seneca  153 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Ithaca  141 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Pepin/Alma  141 Dairyland 7 1b
Assumption  138 CWC-Small 7 1b
De Soto  136 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Catholic Central  128 Midwest Classic 7 1b
Turtle Lake  121 Dunn-St. Croix 7 2.2
Cambria-Friesland  105 Trailways 7 1b
Highland  92 Ridge & Valley 7 1b

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs