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Analysis of basketball scoring trends since 2010

12/02/2021, 4:00pm CST
By Travis Wilson

As the home of one of the largest high school stats and information databases anywhere in the country, WisSports.net has access to a vast amount of statistical info that can be compared across seasons, sports, and eras to find trends and evaluate the impact of rules changes or other items that may impact high school sports.

In the last 10-15 years, there have been a number of changes to high school basketball that have an impact on the game and the results trends.

In 2010, the WIAA expanded the maximum number of regular season varsity contests from 20 to 22. That was also the first season of five divisions in hoops, with four teams at state in each division. 

The 2015-16 season saw the change from four, eight-minute quarters at the varsity level to two, 18-minute halves. 

The COVID pandemic impacted the very end of the 2019-20 season, the off-season development and preparations, and the ensuing 2020-21 campaign, as some teams did not play at all, some were delayed in getting started, additional protocols such as masking were put in place, and the WIAA once again expanded the maximum number of varsity contests, this time to 24.

All of these changes were supported by input and rationale from key stakeholders, including the coaches, the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association, athletic directors, and WIAA staff.

However, little research has been conducted to review the actual implications of these changes, and the measurable effects they have had.

We have done that, pulling results data for both boys and girls basketball since the 2010-11 season to identify trends and study the impacts of several key changes.

The full data can be found below, followed by a review and analysis of the information.

Key:

^ COVID shortened end of 2019-20 season
* COVID impacted 2020-21 season; max games increased to 24, some teams did not play
AVG. PPG: Average total points per game
AVG. MOV: Average margin of victory
H/Q: Halves or Quarters
PPM: Points per minute

Scoring Analysis for Wisconsin High School Basketball

Season Gender Total Games Team Games Total Points Avg. PPG Avg. MOV H/Q PPM
2010-11 Boys 5876 11752 614940 104.7 15.6 Quarters 3.27
2011-12 Boys 5949 11898 624117 104.9 15.8 Quarters 3.28
2012-13 Boys 5882 11764 622095 105.8 15.9 Quarters 3.31
2013-14 Boys 5824 11648 614583 105.5 15.7 Quarters 3.30
2014-15 Boys 5917 11834 623748 105.4 15.4 Quarters 3.29
2015-16 Boys 5913 11826 703386 119.0 17.0 Halves 3.30
2016-17 Boys 5922 11844 701747 118.5 17.1 Halves 3.29
2017-18 Boys 5963 11926 705986 118.4 17.2 Halves 3.29
2018-19 Boys 5970 11940 714478 119.7 17.4 Halves 3.32
2019-20^ Boys 6028 12056 723834 120.1 17.9 Halves 3.34
2020-21* Boys 4686 9372 550101 117.4 17.4 Halves 3.26
All Seasons Boys 63930 127860 7199015 112.6 16.6
2010-11 Girls 5747 11494 507047 88.2 17.7 Quarters 2.76
2011-12 Girls 5763 11526 507697 88.1 18.3 Quarters 2.75
2012-13 Girls 5749 11498 505129 87.9 17.9 Quarters 2.75
2013-14 Girls 5600 11200 483566 86.4 18.2 Quarters 2.70
2014-15 Girls 5644 11288 495237 87.7 18.5 Quarters 2.74
2015-16 Girls 5625 11250 547044 97.3 19.2 Halves 2.70
2016-17 Girls 5664 11328 547222 96.6 19.7 Halves 2.68
2017-18 Girls 5687 11374 557337 98.0 19.6 Halves 2.72
2018-19 Girls 5520 11040 535391 97.0 19.9 Halves 2.69
2019-20^ Girls 5682 11364 551782 97.1 20.1 Halves 2.70
2020-21* Girls 4236 8472 414770 97.9 20.6 Halves 2.72
All Seasons Girls 60917 121834 5652222 92.8 19.1
All Seasons All 188777 377554 20050252 106.2 17.9

Scoring Trends and Impact of Switch from Quarters to Halves

We reviewed our database to produce the total number of games played as well as the total number of points scored for each year since 2010-11, for both boys and girls basketball.

The total number of games played fluctuated slightly from year-to-year, often depending on the weather and the resulting cancelations, but for boys basketball it was generally around 5900 total games. For girls basketball the number was roughly 5600 games, as there are fewer teams participating in girls basketball than there are in boys basketball.

The average total points per game for boys basketball fluctuated slightly in the first four years of data, from 104.7 in 2010-11 to 105.8 in 2013-14. The change to two, 18-minute halves instead of four, eight-minute quarters did have a significant impact on the total number of points scored.

In five years of data for the use of quarters, boys basketball games averaged a total of 105.3 points per game. In the five regular years of halves play from 2015-16 to 2019-20, the average total points per game was 119.1, an increase of 13.8 total points per game or roughly 13%. 

Not only did the raw number of points per game increase, but so too did the points per minute, at least in boys hoops. It averaged 3.29 points per minute in boys basketball in the five years of quarters play, and increased to 3.31 points per minute using halves. 

This increase in points per minute, would seem to indicate more action during the course of the game, likely the result of the elimination of two quarter breaks that often resulted in teams holding for the last shot for upwards of a minute or more. The change to halves was recommended for just that reason, to increase game flow, and also to add more playing opportunities for more student-athletes.

Similar trends were seen in girls basketball. In the five years of data that utilized four, eight-minute quarters, girls basketball teams averaged 87.7 points per game. In the five years following, 2015-16 to 2019-20, that number increased to 97.2 points per game, an increase of just shy of 11%. 

However, per minute scoring was down slightly in girls basketball, going from 2.74 points per minute in the time frame using quarters play, to 2.70 points per minute under halves. This despite the average margin of victory continuing to increase, showing a further divide between good teams and weaker teams.

COVID season impact

The COVID pandemic that began in March of 2020 forced the cancelation of the final 35 boys basketball games of the season, including the entire state tournament, as well as the final 11 state tournament contests in girls basketball.

Schools remained closed the remainder of the year, the players were not able to complete valuable off-season workouts, strength training, or club team seasons in the spring. While some teams and athletes were able to do limited workouts in the summer of 2020, many schools did not allow that off-season work to take place. Once the season started, the calendar was adjusted with many teams not starting until well into the schedule plus the Milwaukee City Conference and Madison public schools not participating at all. Players were required to wear masks and subject to other protocols and mitigation strategies, with some schools limiting the number of players who could work together in practice at a time, and even prohibiting full-team scrimmages in some places for a portion of the year. Many regular season games were canceled either due to the reduced schedule or health and safety protocols.

After boys basketball averaged approximately 5900 games per year, that number dropped to 4,686 completed contests in the 2020-21 campaign. In girls basketball, the average of 5600 was reduced to 4,236 in 2020-21.

Interestingly enough, there was a difference in how the COVID season impacted boys and girls basketball.

After boys teams posted an average total points per game of 120.1 in 2019-20, that number plummeted to just 117.4 in 2020-21, a full point lower than any other season since the switch to halves. A lack of off-season development, some typically high-scoring teams in Milwaukee and Madison not playing, and possibly the impacts of COVID protocols such as masking could explain the drop in scoring.

However, the situation was different in girls basketball, where scoring actually went up from the previous season and was the second-highest overall. Total points per game were 97.9 in the 2020-21 campaign, compared to 97.1 the previous year. Thee only year with higher scoring in girls basketball was 2017-18 when teams averaged a combined 98.0.

It is difficult to identify why the COVID season would have negatively impacted scoring in boys basketball, while the girls basketball numbers were not effected, and in fact up slightly.

Difference in scoring between boys and girls basketball

As outlined above, there are some considerable differences in the numbers between boys and girls basketball. While most have assumed that there are more points scored in boys basketball, the data above lays out just how different the results are.

In the time played under four, eight-minute quarters, boys basketball teams averaged 105.3 points per game, compared to 87.7 points per game for girls teams, a difference of 17.6 points per game. In the five following seasons from 2015-16 to 2019-20 (not including the COVID-impacted season), boys basketball teams averaged 119.1 points per game while girls teams averaged 97.2 points per game, a difference of 21.9 points per contest.

While boys basketball teams score more overall, the average margin of victory has consistently been larger in girls hoops. In the quarters era, girls basketball games were decided by an average of roughly 18 points per game. That number has swelled to over 20 points per game after the switch to halves, including an average margin of victory of 20.6 points per game in 2020-21.

Boys basketball games averaged just under 16 points in margin of victory using quarters, while that number has pushed over 17 points per game after the switch to halves.

Many people have pointed to a growing gap between the good teams and the weak teams in girls basketball over the last number of years, as participation numbers have declined around the state. That increase between the "haves" and "have nots" is confirmed in our data, and figures to be a continued point of concern and possible action throughout the basketball community, including the WIAA and the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association.


About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

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