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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 8

10/04/2022, 8:00am CDT
By Travis Wilson

It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 186 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Hurley to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Lakeland Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league. 

That leaves 37 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 44 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 37 spots. In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

"Step" explanations:

  • 1b - Teams with a winning record (above .500) in conference games only.
  • 2.1 - Teams with the best W-L percentage of conference games will be added to the field.
  • 2.2 - Teams will be ranked in order of the combined won-lost percentage (conference games only) of conference opponents they have defeated. Teams whose conference opponents had the best winning percentages will be added to the playoff field. 
  • 2.3c - W-L percentage vs. playoff field as determined by steps 1, a-d.
  • 2.3d - Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall W-L percentage.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

NOTE: There are a couple instances of teams tied on the divisional cutlines. On the D1/2 cutline, the trio of Waunakee, Badger, and Brookfield East are tied with enrollment figures of 1336; in our projections, two of them would go up to D1 and one of them would go down to D2. On the D4/5 cutline, Wrightstown and G-E-T are tied with enrollments of 427. In that event, the tiebreaker is the actual Third Friday in September count for the current year. We do not know that number yet, but will be reaching out to schools to update those, and the projections.


PROJECTED 2022 CUTLINES COMPARED TO PAST SEASONS

Division 2022* 2021 2020^ 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1336 1445 N/A 1492 1360 1422 1449 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 963 991 N/A 1038 957 966 953 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 591 591 N/A 628 543 540 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 427 419 N/A 423 398 367 397 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 310 298 N/A 299 271 261 290 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 223 207 N/A 197 197 194 196 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195
*-projected
^-no standard playoffs

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Enrollment Conference Projected Div Step
Milwaukee Riverside 2431 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
Middleton  2378 Big Eight 1 1b
Kenosha Indian Trail  2286 Southeast 1 1b
Milwaukee Marshall 2267 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
Milwaukee Pulaski  2172 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 1 1b
Madison Memorial  2150 Big Eight 1 1b
Oak Creek  2122 Southeast 1 1b
Stevens Point  2096 Valley Football Association 1 2.3d
Arrowhead  2070 Classic Eight 1 1b
Fond du Lac  2037 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Neenah  2015 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Bay Port  1916 FRCC-North 1 1b
Hudson  1830 Big Rivers 1 1b
D.C. Everest 1819 Valley Football Association 1 1b
Milwaukee Hamilton 1798 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1 1b
Marquette University  1786 Greater Metro 1 1b
Verona  1756 Big Eight 1 1b
Appleton North  1736 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Sheboygan North  1726 FRCC-South 1 1b
Mukwonago  1669 Classic Eight 1 1b
Muskego  1637 Classic Eight 1 1b
Kimberly  1587 Fox Valley Association 1 1b
Franklin  1569 Southeast 1 1b
Wausau West  1530 Valley Football Association 1 1b
Sussex Hamilton  1508 Greater Metro 1 1b
Wisconsin Rapids  1491 Valley Football Association 1 1b
Chippewa Falls  1485 Big Rivers 1 1b
De Pere  1455 FRCC-North 1 1b
Janesville Parker  1442 Big Eight 1 1b
Racine Horlick  1403 Southeast 1 1b
Badger * 1336 Southern Lakes 1 1b
Waunakee * 1336 Badger-Large 1 1b
Brookfield East * 1336 Greater Metro 2 1b
Milwaukee King  1332 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2 1b
Germantown  1332 Greater Metro 2 1b
Hartford  1320 North Shore 2 1b
Milwaukee Reagan 1286 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2 2.2
Kettle Moraine  1277 Classic Eight 2 1b
Homestead  1262 North Shore 2 1b
Oregon  1252 Badger-Large 2 1b
Sun Prairie East  1238 Badger-Large 2 1b
Marshfield  1233 Valley Football Association 2 1b
Kaukauna  1233 Fox Valley Association 2 1b
Holmen  1228 Mississippi Valley 2 1b
Brookfield Central  1212 Greater Metro 2 1b
Monona Grove  1191 Badger-Small 2 2.2
Westosha Central  1184 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Milwaukee Vincent  1175 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 2 1b
Waukesha West  1175 Classic Eight 2 2.3c
Pulaski  1161 FRCC-North 2 1b
Greenfield  1136 Woodland 2 1b
Cedarburg  1107 North Shore 2 2.2
River Falls  1101 Big Rivers 2 1b
Milton  1075 Badger-Large 2 2.3d
DeForest  1071 Badger-Small 2 1b
Slinger  1069 North Shore 2 1b
New Richmond  1057 Big Rivers 2 1b
West De Pere  1042 FRCC-North 2 1b
Burlington  1040 Southern Lakes 2 1b
Menomonie  1034 Big Rivers 2 2.2
Union Grove  994 Southern Lakes 2 2.2
Waterford  984 Southern Lakes 2 1b
West Bend East  971 North Shore 2 1b
Menasha  963 FRCC-South 2 1b
Onalaska  953 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Greendale  953 Woodland 3 1b
Milwaukee Washington  934 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 3 1b
Baraboo  925 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Wilmot  906 Southern Lakes 3 2.2
Stoughton  905 Badger-Small 3 2.2
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  899 Badger-Small 3 1b
Reedsburg  890 Mississippi Valley 3 1b
Wisconsin Lutheran 857 Woodland 3 1b
Pewaukee  839 Parkland 3 1b
Port Washington  825 East Central 3 2.2
Shawano  805 Bay 3 2.2
Merrill  786 Great Northern 3 1b
McFarland  769 Rock Valley 3 1b
Notre Dame  755 FRCC-South 3 1b
La Crosse Logan  754 Mississippi Valley 3 2.3d
Lakeland  749 Great Northern 3 1b
Monroe  740 Rock Valley 3 1b
Plymouth  739 East Central 3 1b
Portage  730 Badger-Small 3 1b
New Berlin West  716 Parkland 3 1b
New Berlin Eisenhower  715 Parkland 3 1b
Rice Lake  711 Middle Border 3 1b
Medford  705 Great Northern 3 1b
Grafton  693 Woodland 3 1b
Fox Valley Lutheran  670 North Eastern 3 1b
Mosinee  643 Great Northern 3 1b
Martin Luther  631 Metro Classic 3 1b
Waupaca  601 Bay 3 2.2
Jefferson  599 Rock Valley 3 1b
West Salem  592 Coulee 3 1b
Wisconsin Dells  591 South Central 3 1b
Kewaskum  580 East Central 4 1b
Catholic Memorial  566 Parkland 4 1b
Evansville  561 Rock Valley 4 1b
Two Rivers  553 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian  545 Eastern Wisconsin 4 1b
Kettle Moraine Lutheran  534 East Central 4 2.2
Ellsworth  531 Middle Border 4 1b
Saint Croix Central  531 Middle Border 4 2.3d
Little Chute  530 North Eastern 4 1b
Altoona  529 Coulee 4 1b
Edgewood  528 Capitol 4 1b
Edgerton  527 Rock Valley 4 2.3d
Sheboygan Falls  522 East Central 4 2.2
Winneconne  522 Bay 4 2.2
Freedom  521 North Eastern 4 1b
Saint Francis  504 Midwest Classic 4 1b
Denmark  496 North Eastern 4 2.2
Mauston  490 South Central 4 1b
Oconto Falls  490 Northwoods 4 2.3d
Lake Mills  488 Capitol 4 2.3c
Xavier  479 Bay 4 1b
Adams-Friendship  477 South Central 4 1b
Baldwin-Woodville  476 Middle Border 4 1b
Berlin  465 East Central 4 1b
Racine St. Catherine's  464 Metro Classic 4 1b
Somerset  463 Middle Border 4 1b
Platteville  461 SWC 4 1b
Lakeside Lutheran  459 Capitol 4 1b
Lodi  456 Capitol 4 1b
Campbellsport  435 Flyway 4 1b
Columbus  428 Capitol 4 1b
Wrightstown * 427 North Eastern 4 1b
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau * 427 Coulee 5 1b
Watertown Luther Prep  423 Metro Classic 5 2.3d
Northwestern  412 Heart O'North 5 1b
Brodhead/Juda  411 SWC 5 1b
Sturgeon Bay  411 Packerland 5 1b
Chilton  405 Eastern Wisconsin 5 1b
University School  403 Metro Classic 5 1b
Clintonville  403 Northwoods 5 1b
Bloomer  401 Heart O'North 5 2.3d
Wautoma  399 South Central 5 1b
Clinton  394 Eastern Suburban 5 1b
Mayville  393 Flyway 5 1b
Kiel  390 Eastern Wisconsin 5 1b
Horicon/Hustisford  379 Eastern Suburban 5 1b
Prairie du Chien  373 SWC 5 1b
Lake Country Lutheran  353 Metro Classic 5 1b
Brillion  353 Eastern Wisconsin 5 2.3d
Saint Croix Falls  352 Heart O'North 5 1b
Oostburg  343 Big East 5 1b
Omro  339 Flyway 5 2.3d
Amherst  338 CWC-Large 5 1b
Brookfield Academy 337 Midwest Classic 5 2.3d
Stanley-Boyd 332 Cloverbelt 5 2.3d
Racine Lutheran  325 Midwest Classic 5 1b
Southern Door  323 Packerland 5 1b
Wittenberg-Birnamwood  322 CWC-Large 5 1b
Colby  320 Marawood 5 1b
Kewaunee  319 Packerland 5 1b
Durand-Arkansaw  319 Cloverbelt 5 1b
Aquinas  313 Coulee 5 1b
Laconia  311 Flyway 5 1b
Cumberland  310 Heart O'North 5 1b
Westby  308 Coulee 6 1b
Lancaster  297 SWC 6 1b
Cedar Grove-Belgium  296 Big East 6 1b
Marshall  295 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Unity  289 Lakeland 6 1b
Fall River/Rio  289 Trailways 6 2.2
Weyauwega-Fremont  289 CWC-Large 6 2.3d
Westfield  287 South Central 6 2.3d
Belleville  284 SWAL 6 1b
Mishicot  275 Packerland 6 2.3d
Markesan  273 Eastern Suburban 6 1b
Saint Mary's Springs  273 Flyway 6 1b
Darlington  272 SWAL 6 1b
Stratford  272 CWC-Large 6 1b
Bonduel  270 Packerland 6 1b
Cameron  268 Heart O'North 6 1b
Waterloo  268 Eastern Suburban 6 2.3d
Howards Grove  262 Big East 6 1b
Cadott  260 Dunn-St. Croix 6 1b
Mondovi  256 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Ladysmith  253 Lakeland 6 1b
Marathon  249 Marawood 6 2.2
Benton/Scales Mound/Shullsburg  243 Six Rivers 6 1b
Melrose-Mindoro  242 Dairyland 6 2.3d
Abbotsford  241 Marawood 6 2.2
Fall Creek  240 Cloverbelt 6 1b
Mineral Point  239 SWAL 6 1b
Crivitz  237 Northwoods 6 1b
Crandon  235 Northwoods 6 1b
Luther  231 Scenic Bluffs 6 1b
Auburndale  224 Marawood 6 1b
Grantsburg  223 Lakeland 6 1b
Coleman  221 Northwoods 7 1b
Kenosha St. Joseph  220 Midwest Classic 7 1b
Augusta  216 Dairyland 7 1b
Bangor  214 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Shiocton  213 CWC-Large 7 1b
Regis 200 Cloverbelt 7 1b
Black Hawk/Warren 200 Six Rivers 7 1b
Boyceville  200 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Spring Valley  199 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
River Ridge  196 Six Rivers 7 1b
Randolph  196 Trailways 7 1b
Edgar  195 Marawood 7 1b
Cashton  194 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Iola-Scandinavia  193 CWC-Small 7 1b
Blair-Taylor  189 Dairyland 7 1b
Reedsville  187 Big East 7 1b
Cochrane-Fountain City  184 Dairyland 7 1b
Potosi/Cassville  182 Six Rivers 7 1b
Hurley  179 Lakeland 7 2.1
Johnson Creek  178 Trailways 7 1b
Elmwood/Plum City  177 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
New Lisbon  171 Scenic Bluffs 7 1b
Lourdes Academy 161 Trailways 7 1b
Wauzeka/Seneca  160 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Hilbert  151 Big East 7 2.3d
Ithaca  143 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Pepin/Alma  138 Dairyland 7 1b
Assumption 132 CWC-Small 7 1b
Catholic Central  129 Midwest Classic 7 1b
Turtle Lake  121 Dunn-St. Croix 7 1b
Highland  107 Ridge & Valley 7 1b
Cambria-Friesland  97 Trailways 7 1b

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board as the Website and Communications Director and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball) and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs