It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 186 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Hurley to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Lakeland Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league.
That leaves 37 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 44 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 37 spots. In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.
"Step" explanations:
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
NOTE: There are a couple instances of teams tied on the divisional cutlines. On the D1/2 cutline, the trio of Waunakee, Badger, and Brookfield East are tied with enrollment figures of 1336; in our projections, two of them would go up to D1 and one of them would go down to D2. On the D4/5 cutline, Wrightstown and G-E-T are tied with enrollments of 427. In that event, the tiebreaker is the actual Third Friday in September count for the current year. We do not know that number yet, but will be reaching out to schools to update those, and the projections.
Division | 2022* | 2021 | 2020^ | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1336 | 1445 | N/A | 1492 | 1360 | 1422 | 1449 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 963 | 991 | N/A | 1038 | 957 | 966 | 953 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 591 | 591 | N/A | 628 | 543 | 540 | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 427 | 419 | N/A | 423 | 398 | 367 | 397 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 310 | 298 | N/A | 299 | 271 | 261 | 290 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 223 | 207 | N/A | 197 | 197 | 194 | 196 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
*-projected | |||||||||||||||
^-no standard playoffs |
Team | Enrollment | Conference | Projected Div | Step |
---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Riverside | 2431 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
Middleton | 2378 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2286 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Marshall | 2267 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Pulaski | 2172 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 1 | 1b |
Madison Memorial | 2150 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Oak Creek | 2122 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Stevens Point | 2096 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 2.3d |
Arrowhead | 2070 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Fond du Lac | 2037 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Neenah | 2015 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Bay Port | 1916 | FRCC-North | 1 | 1b |
Hudson | 1830 | Big Rivers | 1 | 1b |
D.C. Everest | 1819 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 1798 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 1 | 1b |
Marquette University | 1786 | Greater Metro | 1 | 1b |
Verona | 1756 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Appleton North | 1736 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Sheboygan North | 1726 | FRCC-South | 1 | 1b |
Mukwonago | 1669 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Muskego | 1637 | Classic Eight | 1 | 1b |
Kimberly | 1587 | Fox Valley Association | 1 | 1b |
Franklin | 1569 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Wausau West | 1530 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
Sussex Hamilton | 1508 | Greater Metro | 1 | 1b |
Wisconsin Rapids | 1491 | Valley Football Association | 1 | 1b |
Chippewa Falls | 1485 | Big Rivers | 1 | 1b |
De Pere | 1455 | FRCC-North | 1 | 1b |
Janesville Parker | 1442 | Big Eight | 1 | 1b |
Racine Horlick | 1403 | Southeast | 1 | 1b |
Badger * | 1336 | Southern Lakes | 1 | 1b |
Waunakee * | 1336 | Badger-Large | 1 | 1b |
Brookfield East * | 1336 | Greater Metro | 2 | 1b |
Milwaukee King | 1332 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 2 | 1b |
Germantown | 1332 | Greater Metro | 2 | 1b |
Hartford | 1320 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Milwaukee Reagan | 1286 | Milwaukee City-Richardson | 2 | 2.2 |
Kettle Moraine | 1277 | Classic Eight | 2 | 1b |
Homestead | 1262 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Oregon | 1252 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
Sun Prairie East | 1238 | Badger-Large | 2 | 1b |
Marshfield | 1233 | Valley Football Association | 2 | 1b |
Kaukauna | 1233 | Fox Valley Association | 2 | 1b |
Holmen | 1228 | Mississippi Valley | 2 | 1b |
Brookfield Central | 1212 | Greater Metro | 2 | 1b |
Monona Grove | 1191 | Badger-Small | 2 | 2.2 |
Westosha Central | 1184 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
Milwaukee Vincent | 1175 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 2 | 1b |
Waukesha West | 1175 | Classic Eight | 2 | 2.3c |
Pulaski | 1161 | FRCC-North | 2 | 1b |
Greenfield | 1136 | Woodland | 2 | 1b |
Cedarburg | 1107 | North Shore | 2 | 2.2 |
River Falls | 1101 | Big Rivers | 2 | 1b |
Milton | 1075 | Badger-Large | 2 | 2.3d |
DeForest | 1071 | Badger-Small | 2 | 1b |
Slinger | 1069 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
New Richmond | 1057 | Big Rivers | 2 | 1b |
West De Pere | 1042 | FRCC-North | 2 | 1b |
Burlington | 1040 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
Menomonie | 1034 | Big Rivers | 2 | 2.2 |
Union Grove | 994 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 2.2 |
Waterford | 984 | Southern Lakes | 2 | 1b |
West Bend East | 971 | North Shore | 2 | 1b |
Menasha | 963 | FRCC-South | 2 | 1b |
Onalaska | 953 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 1b |
Greendale | 953 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
Milwaukee Washington | 934 | Milwaukee City-Blackbourn | 3 | 1b |
Baraboo | 925 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 1b |
Wilmot | 906 | Southern Lakes | 3 | 2.2 |
Stoughton | 905 | Badger-Small | 3 | 2.2 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 899 | Badger-Small | 3 | 1b |
Reedsburg | 890 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 1b |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 857 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
Pewaukee | 839 | Parkland | 3 | 1b |
Port Washington | 825 | East Central | 3 | 2.2 |
Shawano | 805 | Bay | 3 | 2.2 |
Merrill | 786 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
McFarland | 769 | Rock Valley | 3 | 1b |
Notre Dame | 755 | FRCC-South | 3 | 1b |
La Crosse Logan | 754 | Mississippi Valley | 3 | 2.3d |
Lakeland | 749 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Monroe | 740 | Rock Valley | 3 | 1b |
Plymouth | 739 | East Central | 3 | 1b |
Portage | 730 | Badger-Small | 3 | 1b |
New Berlin West | 716 | Parkland | 3 | 1b |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 715 | Parkland | 3 | 1b |
Rice Lake | 711 | Middle Border | 3 | 1b |
Medford | 705 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Grafton | 693 | Woodland | 3 | 1b |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 670 | North Eastern | 3 | 1b |
Mosinee | 643 | Great Northern | 3 | 1b |
Martin Luther | 631 | Metro Classic | 3 | 1b |
Waupaca | 601 | Bay | 3 | 2.2 |
Jefferson | 599 | Rock Valley | 3 | 1b |
West Salem | 592 | Coulee | 3 | 1b |
Wisconsin Dells | 591 | South Central | 3 | 1b |
Kewaskum | 580 | East Central | 4 | 1b |
Catholic Memorial | 566 | Parkland | 4 | 1b |
Evansville | 561 | Rock Valley | 4 | 1b |
Two Rivers | 553 | Eastern Wisconsin | 4 | 1b |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 545 | Eastern Wisconsin | 4 | 1b |
Kettle Moraine Lutheran | 534 | East Central | 4 | 2.2 |
Ellsworth | 531 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Saint Croix Central | 531 | Middle Border | 4 | 2.3d |
Little Chute | 530 | North Eastern | 4 | 1b |
Altoona | 529 | Coulee | 4 | 1b |
Edgewood | 528 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Edgerton | 527 | Rock Valley | 4 | 2.3d |
Sheboygan Falls | 522 | East Central | 4 | 2.2 |
Winneconne | 522 | Bay | 4 | 2.2 |
Freedom | 521 | North Eastern | 4 | 1b |
Saint Francis | 504 | Midwest Classic | 4 | 1b |
Denmark | 496 | North Eastern | 4 | 2.2 |
Mauston | 490 | South Central | 4 | 1b |
Oconto Falls | 490 | Northwoods | 4 | 2.3d |
Lake Mills | 488 | Capitol | 4 | 2.3c |
Xavier | 479 | Bay | 4 | 1b |
Adams-Friendship | 477 | South Central | 4 | 1b |
Baldwin-Woodville | 476 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Berlin | 465 | East Central | 4 | 1b |
Racine St. Catherine's | 464 | Metro Classic | 4 | 1b |
Somerset | 463 | Middle Border | 4 | 1b |
Platteville | 461 | SWC | 4 | 1b |
Lakeside Lutheran | 459 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Lodi | 456 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Campbellsport | 435 | Flyway | 4 | 1b |
Columbus | 428 | Capitol | 4 | 1b |
Wrightstown * | 427 | North Eastern | 4 | 1b |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau * | 427 | Coulee | 5 | 1b |
Watertown Luther Prep | 423 | Metro Classic | 5 | 2.3d |
Northwestern | 412 | Heart O'North | 5 | 1b |
Brodhead/Juda | 411 | SWC | 5 | 1b |
Sturgeon Bay | 411 | Packerland | 5 | 1b |
Chilton | 405 | Eastern Wisconsin | 5 | 1b |
University School | 403 | Metro Classic | 5 | 1b |
Clintonville | 403 | Northwoods | 5 | 1b |
Bloomer | 401 | Heart O'North | 5 | 2.3d |
Wautoma | 399 | South Central | 5 | 1b |
Clinton | 394 | Eastern Suburban | 5 | 1b |
Mayville | 393 | Flyway | 5 | 1b |
Kiel | 390 | Eastern Wisconsin | 5 | 1b |
Horicon/Hustisford | 379 | Eastern Suburban | 5 | 1b |
Prairie du Chien | 373 | SWC | 5 | 1b |
Lake Country Lutheran | 353 | Metro Classic | 5 | 1b |
Brillion | 353 | Eastern Wisconsin | 5 | 2.3d |
Saint Croix Falls | 352 | Heart O'North | 5 | 1b |
Oostburg | 343 | Big East | 5 | 1b |
Omro | 339 | Flyway | 5 | 2.3d |
Amherst | 338 | CWC-Large | 5 | 1b |
Brookfield Academy | 337 | Midwest Classic | 5 | 2.3d |
Stanley-Boyd | 332 | Cloverbelt | 5 | 2.3d |
Racine Lutheran | 325 | Midwest Classic | 5 | 1b |
Southern Door | 323 | Packerland | 5 | 1b |
Wittenberg-Birnamwood | 322 | CWC-Large | 5 | 1b |
Colby | 320 | Marawood | 5 | 1b |
Kewaunee | 319 | Packerland | 5 | 1b |
Durand-Arkansaw | 319 | Cloverbelt | 5 | 1b |
Aquinas | 313 | Coulee | 5 | 1b |
Laconia | 311 | Flyway | 5 | 1b |
Cumberland | 310 | Heart O'North | 5 | 1b |
Westby | 308 | Coulee | 6 | 1b |
Lancaster | 297 | SWC | 6 | 1b |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 296 | Big East | 6 | 1b |
Marshall | 295 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 1b |
Unity | 289 | Lakeland | 6 | 1b |
Fall River/Rio | 289 | Trailways | 6 | 2.2 |
Weyauwega-Fremont | 289 | CWC-Large | 6 | 2.3d |
Westfield | 287 | South Central | 6 | 2.3d |
Belleville | 284 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Mishicot | 275 | Packerland | 6 | 2.3d |
Markesan | 273 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 1b |
Saint Mary's Springs | 273 | Flyway | 6 | 1b |
Darlington | 272 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Stratford | 272 | CWC-Large | 6 | 1b |
Bonduel | 270 | Packerland | 6 | 1b |
Cameron | 268 | Heart O'North | 6 | 1b |
Waterloo | 268 | Eastern Suburban | 6 | 2.3d |
Howards Grove | 262 | Big East | 6 | 1b |
Cadott | 260 | Dunn-St. Croix | 6 | 1b |
Mondovi | 256 | Cloverbelt | 6 | 1b |
Ladysmith | 253 | Lakeland | 6 | 1b |
Marathon | 249 | Marawood | 6 | 2.2 |
Benton/Scales Mound/Shullsburg | 243 | Six Rivers | 6 | 1b |
Melrose-Mindoro | 242 | Dairyland | 6 | 2.3d |
Abbotsford | 241 | Marawood | 6 | 2.2 |
Fall Creek | 240 | Cloverbelt | 6 | 1b |
Mineral Point | 239 | SWAL | 6 | 1b |
Crivitz | 237 | Northwoods | 6 | 1b |
Crandon | 235 | Northwoods | 6 | 1b |
Luther | 231 | Scenic Bluffs | 6 | 1b |
Auburndale | 224 | Marawood | 6 | 1b |
Grantsburg | 223 | Lakeland | 6 | 1b |
Coleman | 221 | Northwoods | 7 | 1b |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 220 | Midwest Classic | 7 | 1b |
Augusta | 216 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Bangor | 214 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Shiocton | 213 | CWC-Large | 7 | 1b |
Regis | 200 | Cloverbelt | 7 | 1b |
Black Hawk/Warren | 200 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Boyceville | 200 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Spring Valley | 199 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
River Ridge | 196 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Randolph | 196 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Edgar | 195 | Marawood | 7 | 1b |
Cashton | 194 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Iola-Scandinavia | 193 | CWC-Small | 7 | 1b |
Blair-Taylor | 189 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Reedsville | 187 | Big East | 7 | 1b |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 184 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Potosi/Cassville | 182 | Six Rivers | 7 | 1b |
Hurley | 179 | Lakeland | 7 | 2.1 |
Johnson Creek | 178 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Elmwood/Plum City | 177 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
New Lisbon | 171 | Scenic Bluffs | 7 | 1b |
Lourdes Academy | 161 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Wauzeka/Seneca | 160 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Hilbert | 151 | Big East | 7 | 2.3d |
Ithaca | 143 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Pepin/Alma | 138 | Dairyland | 7 | 1b |
Assumption | 132 | CWC-Small | 7 | 1b |
Catholic Central | 129 | Midwest Classic | 7 | 1b |
Turtle Lake | 121 | Dunn-St. Croix | 7 | 1b |
Highland | 107 | Ridge & Valley | 7 | 1b |
Cambria-Friesland | 97 | Trailways | 7 | 1b |
Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.