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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 181 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Horicon/Hustisford to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Capitol Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league.

That leaves 42 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 48 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 42 spots. The teams I projected to finish 3-4 and miss the playoffs via tiebreakers are: Eau Claire North, Greenfield, Hayward, Janesville Craig, Kettle Moraine, and Royall.

In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

"Step" explanations:

• 1b - Teams with a winning record (above .500) in conference games only.
• 2.1 - Teams with the best W-L percentage of conference games will be added to the field.
• 2.2 - Teams will be ranked in order of the combined won-lost percentage (conference games only) of conference opponents they have defeated. Teams whose conference opponents had the best winning percentages will be added to the playoff field. 
• 2.3c - W-L percentage vs. playoff field as determined by steps 1, a-d.
• 2.3d - Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall W-L percentage.
• 2.3e - Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W/L %

NOTE: Milwaukee South has opted out of the playoffs. Random Lake/Ozaukee is ineligible.

The raw cutlines, prior to application of Tournament Performance Factor points, are below:

Low D1: 1365
Low D2: 962
Low D3: 644
Low D4: 413
Low D5: 308
Low D6: 225

HOWEVER, there's a new wrinkle this year with the implementation of the Tournament Performance Factor, which applies points to teams based on their postseason success in the previous three years, and can elevate teams if they accumulate six points or more.

A total of 15 football teams met the threshold for elevation, though Kimberly and Franklin were already D1 and can't be moved up. In addition, we have Kettle Moraine missing the playoffs via tiebreaker.

Teams that are elevated are:

• Waunakee - D2 to D1
• Monroe - D3 to D2
• Rice Lake - D3 to D2
• Catholic Memorial - D4 to D3
• Columbus - D5 to D4
• Mayville - D5 to D4
• Aquinas - D5 to D4
• Stratford - D6 to D5
• Saint Mary's Springs - D6 to D5
• Darlington - D6 to D5
• Regis - D7 to D6
• Reedsville D7 to D6

For each team that is elevated, a corresponding team from the higher division is moved down to balance out the divisions, which need to have 32 teams. The smallest team(s) in each division are the ones that will be moved down as needed, though it is important to note that, "A team cannot be moved down a division due to another team’s promotion if the aforementioned team has earned any tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years. The next smallest school without tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years will be moved down."

• Milwaukee Reagan is the team moved down from Division 1 to Division 2. (Waunakee elevation)
• Ashwaubenon and Waukesha North are the teams moved down from Division 2 to Division 3. (Monroe & Rice Lake elevation)
• Waupaca is the team moved down from Division 3 to Division 4. (Catholic Memorial elevation)
• Shoreland Lutheran, Kiel, and Brodhead/Juda are the teams moved down from Division 4 to Division 5. (Columbus, Mayville, Aquinas elevations)
• Lomira, Lancaster, and Cameron are the teams moved down from Division 5 to Division 6. (Stratford, Darlington, Saint Mary's Springs elevations)
• Crandon and Roncalli are the teams moved down from Division 6 to Division 7. (Regis & Reedsville elevations)

Of note, Menomonie's enrollment had them in line to move down from D2 to D3, but they accumulated TPF points in the 2021 season and thus were not eligible to move down. Similarly, Southern Door and Kewaunee were not eligible to be moved down from D5 to D6 due to accumulating TPF points in Division 5 previously. Auburndale and Coleman could not be moved down from D6 to D7 due to accumulating TPF points in Division 6.

Brodhead/Juda was moved down from Division 4 to Division 5 despite having TPF points in the last three years, as those points were accumulated in Division 5. Also, Lancaster was able to move from D5 to D6 as their TPF points had been accumulated in Division 6.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

* in TPF column indicates team was elevated due to Tournament Performance Factor points

^ in TPF column indicates team was moved down a division to another team's elevation

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.