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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 8

10/07/2024, 11:45am CDT
By Travis Wilson

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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 181 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Horicon/Hustisford to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Capitol Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league.

That leaves 42 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 48 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 42 spots. The teams I projected to finish 3-4 and miss the playoffs via tiebreakers are: Eau Claire North, Greenfield, Hayward, Janesville Craig, Kettle Moraine, and Royall.

In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

"Step" explanations:

  • 1b - Teams with a winning record (above .500) in conference games only.
  • 2.1 - Teams with the best W-L percentage of conference games will be added to the field.
  • 2.2 - Teams will be ranked in order of the combined won-lost percentage (conference games only) of conference opponents they have defeated. Teams whose conference opponents had the best winning percentages will be added to the playoff field. 
  • 2.3c - W-L percentage vs. playoff field as determined by steps 1, a-d.
  • 2.3d - Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall W-L percentage.
  • 2.3e - Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W/L %

NOTE: Milwaukee South has opted out of the playoffs. Random Lake/Ozaukee is ineligible.

The raw cutlines, prior to application of Tournament Performance Factor points, are below:

Low D1: 1365
Low D2: 962
Low D3: 644
Low D4: 413
Low D5: 308
Low D6: 225

Tournament Performance Factor Points Application

HOWEVER, there's a new wrinkle this year with the implementation of the Tournament Performance Factor, which applies points to teams based on their postseason success in the previous three years, and can elevate teams if they accumulate six points or more.

A total of 15 football teams met the threshold for elevation, though Kimberly and Franklin were already D1 and can't be moved up. In addition, we have Kettle Moraine missing the playoffs via tiebreaker.

Teams that are elevated are:

  • Waunakee - D2 to D1
  • Monroe - D3 to D2
  • Rice Lake - D3 to D2
  • Catholic Memorial - D4 to D3
  • Columbus - D5 to D4
  • Mayville - D5 to D4
  • Aquinas - D5 to D4
  • Stratford - D6 to D5
  • Saint Mary's Springs - D6 to D5
  • Darlington - D6 to D5
  • Regis - D7 to D6
  • Reedsville D7 to D6

For each team that is elevated, a corresponding team from the higher division is moved down to balance out the divisions, which need to have 32 teams. The smallest team(s) in each division are the ones that will be moved down as needed, though it is important to note that, "A team cannot be moved down a division due to another team’s promotion if the aforementioned team has earned any tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years. The next smallest school without tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years will be moved down."

  • Milwaukee Reagan is the team moved down from Division 1 to Division 2. (Waunakee elevation)
  • Ashwaubenon and Waukesha North are the teams moved down from Division 2 to Division 3. (Monroe & Rice Lake elevation)
  • Waupaca is the team moved down from Division 3 to Division 4. (Catholic Memorial elevation)
  • Shoreland Lutheran, Kiel, and Brodhead/Juda are the teams moved down from Division 4 to Division 5. (Columbus, Mayville, Aquinas elevations)
  • Lomira, Lancaster, and Cameron are the teams moved down from Division 5 to Division 6. (Stratford, Darlington, Saint Mary's Springs elevations)
  • Crandon and Roncalli are the teams moved down from Division 6 to Division 7. (Regis & Reedsville elevations)

Of note, Menomonie's enrollment had them in line to move down from D2 to D3, but they accumulated TPF points in the 2021 season and thus were not eligible to move down. Similarly, Southern Door and Kewaunee were not eligible to be moved down from D5 to D6 due to accumulating TPF points in Division 5 previously. Auburndale and Coleman could not be moved down from D6 to D7 due to accumulating TPF points in Division 6.

Brodhead/Juda was moved down from Division 4 to Division 5 despite having TPF points in the last three years, as those points were accumulated in Division 5. Also, Lancaster was able to move from D5 to D6 as their TPF points had been accumulated in Division 6.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.


PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

* in TPF column indicates team was elevated due to Tournament Performance Factor points

^ in TPF column indicates team was moved down a division to another team's elevation

Team Enrollment Conference TPF Step Adj Division
Middleton 2388 Big Eight 1b 1
Milwaukee Riverside 2267 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2.2 1
Madison West 2193 Big Eight 1b 1
Oak Creek 2177 Southeast 1b 1
Stevens Point 2083 Wisconsin Valley 1b 1
Arrowhead 2037 Classic Eight 1b 1
Madison Memorial 2031 Big Eight 1b 1
Milwaukee Bradley Tech 1986 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2.2 1
Neenah 1977 Fox Valley Association 1b 1
Bay Port 1952 FRCC-North 1b 1
Milwaukee Hamilton 1946 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1b 1
Fond du Lac 1913 Fox Valley Association 2.3d 1
Kenosha Bradford 1887 Southeast 2.3d 1
Racine Case 1849 Southeast 1b 1
Milwaukee Marshall 1844 Milwaukee City-Richardson 2.2 1
D.C. Everest 1830 Wisconsin Valley 1b 1
Verona 1794 Big Eight 1b 1
Marquette University 1786 Greater Metro 1b 1
Hudson 1732 Big Rivers 1b 1
Appleton North 1720 Fox Valley Association 1b 1
Sheboygan North 1662 FRCC-South 1b 1
Muskego 1648 Classic Eight 2.2 1
Oconomowoc 1628 Classic Eight 1b 1
Franklin 1606 Southeast 1b 1
Mukwonago 1588 Classic Eight 1b 1
Kimberly 1574 Fox Valley Association 1b 1
Sussex Hamilton 1554 Greater Metro 1b 1
Manitowoc Lincoln 1545 FRCC-South 2.3d 1
Wausau West 1537 Wisconsin Valley 2.2 1
De Pere 1464 FRCC-North 1b 1
Chippewa Falls 1424 Big Rivers 2.2 1
Waunakee 1352 Badger-Large * 1b 1
Milwaukee Reagan 1365 Milwaukee City-Richardson ^ 1b 2
Milwaukee King 1349 Milwaukee City-Richardson 1b 2
Sun Prairie East 1342 Badger-Large 1b 2
Hartford 1337 North Shore 1b 2
Germantown 1295 Greater Metro 1b 2
Badger 1293 Southern Lakes 1b 2
Racine Horlick 1289 Southeast 1b 2
Westosha Central 1283 Southern Lakes 1b 2
Oshkosh North 1268 FRCC-South 1b 2
Kaukauna 1262 Fox Valley Association 1b 2
Holmen 1254 Mississippi Valley 1b 2
Marshfield 1252 Wisconsin Valley 1b 2
Homestead 1227 North Shore 1b 2
Monona Grove 1184 Badger-Large 1b 2
Brookfield Central 1173 Greater Metro 2.3d 2
DeForest 1141 Badger-Large 2.3d 2
Pulaski 1114 FRCC-North 1b 2
New Richmond 1088 Big Rivers 1b 2
Cedarburg 1087 North Shore 1b 2
West De Pere 1081 FRCC-North 1b 2
Milwaukee Vincent 1065 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 1b 2
Milton 1054 Badger-Large 1b 2
Beaver Dam 1047 East Central 1b 2
Slinger 1041 North Shore 1b 2
Wauwatosa East 1035 Parkland 1b 2
Wauwatosa West 1027 Parkland 1b 2
Menasha 1022 FRCC-South 1b 2
La Crosse Central 1011 Mississippi Valley 1b 2
Union Grove 1010 Southern Lakes 2.3d 2
Menomonie 966 Big Rivers 1b 2
Monroe 715 Rock Valley * 1b 2
Rice Lake 706 Big Rivers * 1b 2
Ashwaubenon 996 FRCC-North ^ 2.3c 3
Waukesha North 962 Parkland ^ 2.3d 3
Burlington 961 Southern Lakes 1b 3
Wausau East 941 Great Northern 1b 3
Milwaukee Bay View 938 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 2.3d 3
Wisconsin Lutheran 924 Woodland 1b 3
Onalaska 920 Mississippi Valley 1b 3
Greendale 915 Woodland 1b 3
Whitefish Bay 911 North Shore 2.3c 3
Mount Horeb/Barneveld 910 Badger-Small 1b 3
Waterford 889 Southern Lakes 1b 3
Stoughton 861 Badger-Small 1b 3
Reedsburg 857 Mississippi Valley 1b 3
Whitnall 850 Woodland 1b 3
Milwaukee Washington 825 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 1b 3
Port Washington 804 East Central 1b 3
Obama SCTE 782 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 1b 3
Merrill 762 Great Northern 1b 3
Fox Valley Lutheran 745 Bay 2.2 3
McFarland 742 Rock Valley 1b 3
Notre Dame 739 FRCC-South 1b 3
Pius XI Catholic 737 Midwest Classic-Large 2.2 3
Plymouth 733 East Central 1b 3
Grafton 718 Woodland 1b 3
Medford 715 Great Northern 1b 3
La Crosse Logan 714 Mississippi Valley 1b 3
Lakeland 704 Great Northern 2.2 3
New Berlin West 689 Parkland 1b 3
Cudahy 683 Midwest Classic-Large 2.2 3
Martin Luther 676 Metro Classic 1b 3
Luxemburg-Casco 648 North Eastern 1b 3
Catholic Memorial 571 Parkland * 1b 3
Waupaca 644 Bay ^ 2.2 4
Mosinee 625 Great Northern 1b 4
Delavan-Darien 620 Rock Valley 1b 4
Edgewood 619 Badger-Small 1b 4
West Salem 603 Coulee 1b 4
Seymour 595 Bay 1b 4
Wisconsin Dells 572 South Central 1b 4
Waupun 569 South Central 1b 4
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian 565 Eastern Wisconsin 2.2 4
Saint Francis 553 Midwest Classic-Large 2.2 4
Edgerton 551 Rock Valley 1b 4
Oconto Falls 533 Northwoods 1b 4
Ellsworth 527 Middle Border 1b 4
Evansville 513 Rock Valley 1b 4
Osceola 511 Middle Border 2.3d 4
Winneconne 510 Bay 1b 4
Baldwin-Woodville 509 Middle Border 1b 4
Saint Croix Central 506 Middle Border 1b 4
Campbellsport 492 Flyway 1b 4
Platteville 489 SWC 1b 4
Lake Mills 482 Capitol 1b 4
Freedom 481 North Eastern 1b 4
Berlin 479 South Central 1b 4
Little Chute 477 North Eastern 1b 4
Xavier 457 Bay 1b 4
Racine St. Catherine's 456 Metro Classic 1b 4
Lodi 448 Capitol 1b 4
Arcadia 430 Coulee 2.3d 4
Prescott 427 Middle Border 1b 4
Columbus 373 Capitol * 1b 4
Mayville 363 Flyway * 1b 4
Aquinas 318 Coulee * 1b 4
Shoreland Lutheran 425 Metro Classic ^ 2.3d 5
Kiel 420 Eastern Wisconsin ^ 1b 5
Brodhead/Juda 413 SWC ^ 2.2 5
Watertown Luther Prep 409 Metro Classic 1b 5
Sturgeon Bay 404 Packerland 2.2 5
Wrightstown 399 North Eastern 1b 5
Milwaukee Academy of Science 392 Midwest Classic-Large 1b 5
Northwestern 392 Heart O'North 1b 5
Southwestern/East Dubuque 378 SWAL 2.3c 5
Spooner 373 Heart O'North 1b 5
Elk Mound 368 Cloverbelt 1b 5
Horicon/Hustisford 365 Capitol 2.1 5
Saint Croix Falls 358 Heart O'North 1b 5
Amherst 357 CWC-Large 1b 5
Lake Country Lutheran 350 Metro Classic 1b 5
Racine Lutheran 343 Midwest Classic-Large 1b 5
Peshtigo 340 Packerland 2.2 5
Winnebago Lutheran 340 Flyway 2.3d 5
Wittenberg-Birnamwood 338 CWC-Large 1b 5
Brookfield Academy 333 Midwest Classic-Small 1b 5
New Holstein 327 Eastern Wisconsin 1b 5
Barron 325 Heart O'North 1b 5
Oostburg 324 Big East 1b 5
Prairie du Chien 323 SWC 1b 5
Stanley-Boyd 321 Cloverbelt 1b 5
New Glarus 320 SWC 1b 5
Brillion 319 Eastern Wisconsin 2.2 5
Southern Door 311 Packerland 1b 5
Kewaunee 308 Packerland 1b 5
Stratford 271 CWC-Large * 1b 5
Saint Mary's Springs 263 Flyway * 1b 5
Darlington 258 SWAL * 1b 5
Lancaster 318 SWC ^ 1b 6
Lomira 315 Flyway ^ 1b 6
Cameron 310 Lakeland ^ 1b 6
Colby 307 CWC-Large 1b 6
Poynette 307 Eastern Suburban 1b 6
Westby 297 Coulee 1b 6
Valders 297 Eastern Wisconsin 2.2 6
Westfield 295 Trailways 1b 6
Belleville 294 SWAL 1b 6
Cedar Grove-Belgium 291 Big East 1b 6
Weyauwega-Fremont 290 CWC-Large 2.3c 6
Nekoosa 288 South Central 1b 6
Marshall 287 Eastern Suburban 1b 6
Cambridge 280 Eastern Suburban 1b 6
Pardeeville 274 Eastern Suburban 1b 6
Grantsburg 270 Lakeland 1b 6
Mondovi 270 Cloverbelt 1b 6
Cuba City 269 SWAL 1b 6
Mishicot 268 Packerland 2.2 6
Howards Grove 266 Big East 1b 6
Bonduel 263 Packerland 1b 6
Fall Creek 254 Cloverbelt 2.3d 6
Luther 253 Coulee 1b 6
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser 251 Lakeland 1b 6
Ladysmith 249 Lakeland 1b 6
Manitowoc Lutheran 248 Big East 2.2 6
Abbotsford 240 Marawood/CWC 1b 6
Mineral Point 240 SWAL 1b 6
Auburndale 230 Marawood/CWC 1b 6
Coleman 225 Northwoods 1b 6
Regis 212 Cloverbelt * 1b 6
Reedsville 192 Big East * 1b 6
Crandon 232 Northwoods ^ 2.3d 7
Roncalli 229 Eastern Wisconsin ^ 1b 7
Whitehall 221 Dairyland 2.3d 7
Kenosha St. Joseph 219 Midwest Classic-Small 1b 7
Black Hawk/Warren 218 Six Rivers 1b 7
Bangor 215 Scenic Bluffs 1b 7
Shiocton 214 Northwoods 1b 7
Boyceville 213 Dunn-St. Croix 1b 7
Iowa-Grant 212 Six Rivers 1b 7
Glenwood City 203 Dunn-St. Croix 1b 7
Crivitz 202 Northwoods 1b 7
Edgar 201 Marawood/CWC 1b 7
Iola-Scandinavia 201 Marawood/CWC 1b 7
Kenosha Christian Life 196 Midwest Classic-Small 1b 7
Cashton 194 Scenic Bluffs 1b 7
Eleva-Strum 194 Dairyland 1b 7
Wauzeka/Seneca 186 Six Rivers 2.3c 7
Johnson Creek 181 Trailways 1b 7
Spring Valley 180 Dunn-St. Croix 1b 7
Cochrane-Fountain City 180 Dairyland 1b 7
Pittsville 176 Marawood/CWC 2.3d 7
Blair-Taylor 174 Dairyland 1b 7
Lourdes Academy 172 Trailways 1b 7
Randolph 171 Trailways 1b 7
Potosi/Cassville 166 Six Rivers 1b 7
River Ridge 166 Six Rivers 1b 7
Hillsboro 151 Scenic Bluffs 1b 7
Pepin/Alma 148 Dairyland 1b 7
Hilbert 143 Big East 2.3c 7
Turtle Lake 122 Dunn-St. Croix 1b 7
Ithaca 116 Scenic Bluffs 1b 7
Cambria-Friesland 113 Trailways 1b 7

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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