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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 9

10/13/2024, 2:45pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

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It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last week of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the nearly 400 I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 180 teams finish with a conference record of better than .500, all at 4-3 in conference. In addition, we project Horicon/Hustisford to finish 3-3 in league play, as there are an odd number of teams in the state this year, with the Capitol Conference the one league with seven teams and no paired league.

That leaves 43 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference, with 48 teams finishing 3-4 in league play in our projections and eligible for those 43 spots. The teams I projected to finish 3-4 and miss the playoffs via tiebreakers are: Eau Claire North, Greenfield, Madison West, McFarland, and Pewaukee.

In the past, this is where we would bore you with all kinds of explanations of the WIAA tiebreakers, but in the interest of brevity, we will just list which tiebreaker step the teams got in below in the playoff qualifier list. To shorten things up, the better wins you have, and later on in the tiebreaker list the better wins your opponents have, the better chance you have in the tiebreaker criteria.

"Step" explanations:

  • 1b - Teams with a winning record (above .500) in conference games only.
  • 2.1 - Teams with the best W-L percentage of conference games will be added to the field.
  • 2.2 - Teams will be ranked in order of the combined won-lost percentage (conference games only) of conference opponents they have defeated. Teams whose conference opponents had the best winning percentages will be added to the playoff field. 
  • 2.3c - W-L percentage vs. playoff field as determined by steps 1, a-d.
  • 2.3d - Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall W-L percentage.
  • 2.3e - Defeated opponents (all wins) overall W/L %

NOTE: Milwaukee South has opted out of the playoffs. Random Lake/Ozaukee is ineligible.

The raw cutlines, prior to application of Tournament Performance Factor points, are below:

Low D1: 1349
Low D2: 938
Low D3: 625
Low D4: 420
Low D5: 310
Low D6: 225

Tournament Performance Factor Points Application

HOWEVER, there's a new wrinkle this year with the implementation of the Tournament Performance Factor, which applies points to teams based on their postseason success in the previous three years, and can elevate teams if they accumulate six points or more.

A total of 15 football teams met the threshold for elevation, though Kimberly, Waunakee, and Franklin were already D1 in our projections and can't be moved up. In addition, we have Kettle Moraine missing the playoffs with a 2-5 projected record.

Teams that are elevated are:

  • Monroe - D3 to D2
  • Rice Lake - D3 to D2
  • Catholic Memorial - D4 to D3
  • Columbus - D5 to D4
  • Mayville - D5 to D4
  • Aquinas - D5 to D4
  • Stratford - D6 to D5
  • Saint Mary's Springs - D6 to D5
  • Darlington - D6 to D5
  • Regis - D7 to D6
  • Reedsville D7 to D6

For each team that is elevated, a corresponding team from the higher division is moved down to balance out the divisions, which need to have 32 teams. The smallest team(s) in each division are the ones that will be moved down as needed, though it is important to note that, "A team cannot be moved down a division due to another team’s promotion if the aforementioned team has earned any tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years. The next smallest school without tournament performance factor points in that division during the previous three years will be moved down."

Based on our projections (subject to change):

  • Wausau East and Milwaukee Bay View are the teams moved down from Division 2 to Division 3. (Monroe & Rice Lake elevation)
  • Mosinee is the team moved down from Division 3 to Division 4. (Catholic Memorial elevation)
  • Shoreland Lutheran, Kiel, and Prescott are the teams moved down from Division 4 to Division 5. (Columbus, Mayville, Aquinas elevations)
  • Lomira, Lancaster, and Cameron are the teams moved down from Division 5 to Division 6. (Stratford, Darlington, Saint Mary's Springs elevations)
  • Crandon and Roncalli are the teams moved down from Division 6 to Division 7. (Regis & Reedsville elevations)

Of note, Southern Door's enrollment had them in line to move down from D5 to D6, but they accumulated TPF points in the 2022 season and thus were not eligible to move down. Similarly, Auburndale and Coleman could not be moved down from D6 to D7 due to accumulating TPF points in Division 6.

Lancaster and Cameron were moved down from Division 5 to Division 6 despite having TPF points in the last three years, as those points were accumulated in Division 6.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

* in TPF column indicates team was elevated due to Tournament Performance Factor points

^ in TPF column indicates team was moved down a division to another team's elevation

Team Enrollment Conference TPF ProjectW ProjectL Step Adj Division
Middleton 2388 Big Eight 5 2 1b 1
Milwaukee Riverside 2267 Milwaukee City-Richardson 3 4 2.2 1
Oak Creek 2177 Southeast 5 2 1b 1
Stevens Point 2083 Wisconsin Valley 5 2 1b 1
Arrowhead 2037 Classic Eight 6 1 1b 1
Madison Memorial 2031 Big Eight 6 1 1b 1
Neenah 1977 Fox Valley Association 6 1 1b 1
Bay Port 1952 FRCC-North 6 1 1b 1
Milwaukee Hamilton 1946 Milwaukee City-Richardson 6 1 1b 1
Fond du Lac 1913 Fox Valley Association 3 4 2.3d 1
Kenosha Bradford 1887 Southeast 3 4 2.3d 1
Racine Case 1849 Southeast 6 1 1b 1
Milwaukee Marshall 1844 Milwaukee City-Richardson 3 4 2.2 1
D.C. Everest 1830 Wisconsin Valley 6 1 1b 1
Verona 1794 Big Eight 7 0 1b 1
Marquette University 1786 Greater Metro 7 0 1b 1
Hudson 1732 Big Rivers 4 3 1b 1
Appleton North 1720 Fox Valley Association 4 3 1b 1
Sheboygan North 1662 FRCC-South 4 3 1b 1
Muskego 1648 Classic Eight 3 4 2.2 1
Janesville Craig 1632 Big Eight 4 3 1b 1
Oconomowoc 1628 Classic Eight 6 1 1b 1
Franklin 1606 Southeast 7 0 1b 1
Mukwonago 1588 Classic Eight 5 2 1b 1
Kimberly 1574 Fox Valley Association 6 1 1b 1
Sussex Hamilton 1554 Greater Metro 5 2 1b 1
Wausau West 1537 Wisconsin Valley 3 4 2.2 1
De Pere 1464 FRCC-North 5 2 1b 1
Chippewa Falls 1424 Big Rivers 3 4 2.2 1
Milwaukee Reagan 1365 Milwaukee City-Richardson 4 3 1b 1
Waunakee 1352 Badger-Large * 7 0 1b 1
Milwaukee King 1349 Milwaukee City-Richardson 7 0 1b 1
Sun Prairie East 1342 Badger-Large 6 1 1b 2
Hartford 1337 North Shore 4 3 1b 2
Germantown 1295 Greater Metro 6 1 1b 2
Badger 1293 Southern Lakes 7 0 1b 2
Racine Horlick 1289 Southeast 4 3 1b 2
Westosha Central 1283 Southern Lakes 3 4 2.2 2
Oshkosh North 1268 FRCC-South 5 2 1b 2
Kaukauna 1262 Fox Valley Association 6 1 1b 2
Holmen 1254 Mississippi Valley 6 1 1b 2
Marshfield 1252 Wisconsin Valley 4 3 1b 2
Homestead 1227 North Shore 6 1 1b 2
Monona Grove 1184 Badger-Large 5 2 1b 2
Brookfield Central 1173 Greater Metro 3 4 2.3d 2
DeForest 1141 Badger-Large 3 4 2.3d 2
River Falls 1123 Big Rivers 3 4 2.2 2
Pulaski 1114 FRCC-North 4 3 1b 2
New Richmond 1088 Big Rivers 7 0 1b 2
Cedarburg 1087 North Shore 5 2 1b 2
West De Pere 1081 FRCC-North 7 0 1b 2
Milton 1054 Badger-Large 4 3 1b 2
Beaver Dam 1047 East Central 5 2 1b 2
Slinger 1041 North Shore 7 0 1b 2
Wauwatosa East 1035 Parkland 6 1 1b 2
Wauwatosa West 1027 Parkland 5 2 1b 2
Menasha 1022 FRCC-South 6 1 1b 2
La Crosse Central 1011 Mississippi Valley 6 1 1b 2
Union Grove 1010 Southern Lakes 4 3 1b 2
Ashwaubenon 996 FRCC-North 3 4 2.3c 2
Menomonie 966 Big Rivers 4 3 1b 2
Burlington 961 Southern Lakes 5 2 1b 2
Monroe 715 Rock Valley * 7 0 1b 2
Rice Lake 706 Big Rivers * 6 1 1b 2
Wausau East 941 Great Northern ^ 5 2 1b 3
Milwaukee Bay View 938 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn ^ 4 3 1b 3
Wisconsin Lutheran 924 Woodland 6 1 1b 3
Onalaska 920 Mississippi Valley 5 2 1b 3
Greendale 915 Woodland 5 2 1b 3
Whitefish Bay 911 North Shore 3 4 2.3c 3
Mount Horeb/Barneveld 910 Badger-Small 7 0 1b 3
Waterford 889 Southern Lakes 5 2 1b 3
Sauk Prairie 864 Badger-Small 3 4 2.2 3
Stoughton 861 Badger-Small 5 2 1b 3
Reedsburg 857 Mississippi Valley 4 3 1b 3
Whitnall 850 Woodland 4 3 1b 3
Milwaukee Washington 825 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 5 2 1b 3
Port Washington 804 East Central 7 0 1b 3
Obama SCTE 782 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 7 0 1b 3
Merrill 762 Great Northern 3 4 2.2 3
Fox Valley Lutheran 745 Bay 3 4 2.2 3
Notre Dame 739 FRCC-South 7 0 1b 3
Pius XI Catholic 737 Midwest Classic-Large 3 4 2.2 3
Plymouth 733 East Central 5 2 1b 3
New Berlin Eisenhower 724 Parkland 3 4 2.3d 3
Grafton 718 Woodland 7 0 1b 3
Medford 715 Great Northern 7 0 1b 3
La Crosse Logan 714 Mississippi Valley 4 3 1b 3
Lakeland 704 Great Northern 3 4 2.2 3
New Berlin West 689 Parkland 5 2 1b 3
Cudahy 683 Midwest Classic-Large 3 4 2.2 3
Martin Luther 676 Metro Classic 5 2 1b 3
Milwaukee North 651 Milwaukee City-Blackbourn 3 4 2.3d 3
Luxemburg-Casco 648 North Eastern 4 3 1b 3
Waupaca 644 Bay 3 4 2.2 3
Catholic Memorial 571 Parkland * 6 1 1b 3
Mosinee 625 Great Northern ^ 5 2 1b 4
Delavan-Darien 620 Rock Valley 5 2 1b 4
Edgewood 619 Badger-Small 4 3 1b 4
West Salem 603 Coulee 6 1 1b 4
Seymour 595 Bay 5 2 1b 4
Wisconsin Dells 572 South Central 6 1 1b 4
Waupun 569 South Central 4 3 1b 4
Kettle Moraine Lutheran 568 East Central 3 4 2.2 4
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian 565 Eastern Wisconsin 3 4 2.2 4
Saint Francis 553 Midwest Classic-Large 3 4 2.2 4
Edgerton 551 Rock Valley 5 2 1b 4
Oconto Falls 533 Northwoods 6 1 1b 4
Ellsworth 527 Middle Border 5 2 1b 4
Evansville 513 Rock Valley 5 2 1b 4
Osceola 511 Middle Border 3 4 2.2 4
Winneconne 510 Bay 7 0 1b 4
Baldwin-Woodville 509 Middle Border 7 0 1b 4
Saint Croix Central 506 Middle Border 3 4 2.2 4
Campbellsport 492 Flyway 4 3 1b 4
Platteville 489 SWC 5 2 1b 4
Lake Mills 482 Capitol 5 1 1b 4
Freedom 481 North Eastern 7 0 1b 4
Berlin 479 South Central 7 0 1b 4
Little Chute 477 North Eastern 5 2 1b 4
Xavier 457 Bay 4 3 1b 4
Racine St. Catherine's 456 Metro Classic 7 0 1b 4
Lodi 448 Capitol 4 2 1b 4
Amery 436 Middle Border 3 4 2.2 4
Arcadia 430 Coulee 3 4 2.3d 4
Columbus 373 Capitol * 6 0 1b 4
Mayville 363 Flyway * 5 2 1b 4
Aquinas 318 Coulee * 7 0 1b 4
Prescott 427 Middle Border ^ 6 1 1b 5
Shoreland Lutheran 425 Metro Classic ^ 3 4 2.3d 5
Kiel 420 Eastern Wisconsin ^ 7 0 1b 5
Brodhead/Juda 413 SWC 3 4 2.2 5
Watertown Luther Prep 409 Metro Classic 4 3 1b 5
Sturgeon Bay 404 Packerland 3 4 2.2 5
Wrightstown 399 North Eastern 6 1 1b 5
Milwaukee Academy of Science 392 Midwest Classic-Large 7 0 1b 5
Northwestern 392 Heart O'North 6 1 1b 5
Southwestern/East Dubuque 378 SWAL 3 4 2.3c 5
Spooner 373 Heart O'North 5 2 1b 5
Elk Mound 368 Cloverbelt 4 3 1b 5
Horicon/Hustisford 365 Capitol 3 3 2.1 5
Saint Croix Falls 358 Heart O'North 7 0 1b 5
Amherst 357 CWC-Large 6 1 1b 5
Lake Country Lutheran 350 Metro Classic 6 1 1b 5
Racine Lutheran 343 Midwest Classic-Large 6 1 1b 5
Peshtigo 340 Packerland 3 4 2.2 5
Winnebago Lutheran 340 Flyway 3 4 2.3d 5
Wittenberg-Birnamwood 338 CWC-Large 5 2 1b 5
Brookfield Academy 333 Midwest Classic-Small 6 1 1b 5
New Holstein 327 Eastern Wisconsin 5 2 1b 5
Barron 325 Heart O'North 4 3 1b 5
Oostburg 324 Big East 5 2 1b 5
Prairie du Chien 323 SWC 7 0 1b 5
Stanley-Boyd 321 Cloverbelt 6 1 1b 5
New Glarus 320 SWC 4 3 1b 5
Brillion 319 Eastern Wisconsin 4 3 1b 5
Southern Door 311 Packerland 6 1 1b 5
Stratford 271 CWC-Large * 7 0 1b 5
Saint Mary's Springs 263 Flyway * 6 1 1b 5
Darlington 258 SWAL * 6 1 1b 5
Lancaster 318 SWC ^ 5 2 1b 6
Lomira 315 Flyway ^ 7 0 1b 6
Cameron 310 Lakeland ^ 5 2 1b 6
Kewaunee 308 Packerland 5 2 1b 6
Poynette 307 Eastern Suburban 5 2 1b 6
Colby 307 CWC-Large 4 3 1b 6
Westby 297 Coulee 4 3 1b 6
Westfield 295 Trailways 4 3 1b 6
Belleville 294 SWAL 4 3 1b 6
Cedar Grove-Belgium 291 Big East 7 0 1b 6
Weyauwega-Fremont 290 CWC-Large 3 4 2.3c 6
Nekoosa 288 South Central 5 2 1b 6
Marshall 287 Eastern Suburban 4 3 1b 6
Cambridge 280 Eastern Suburban 7 0 1b 6
Pardeeville 274 Eastern Suburban 6 1 1b 6
Grantsburg 270 Lakeland 7 0 1b 6
Mondovi 270 Cloverbelt 5 2 1b 6
Cuba City 269 SWAL 7 0 1b 6
Mishicot 268 Packerland 3 4 2.2 6
Howards Grove 266 Big East 4 3 1b 6
Bonduel 263 Packerland 7 0 1b 6
Fall Creek 254 Cloverbelt 3 4 2.3d 6
Luther 253 Coulee 5 2 1b 6
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser 251 Lakeland 4 3 1b 6
Ladysmith 249 Lakeland 6 1 1b 6
Manitowoc Lutheran 248 Big East 4 3 1b 6
Abbotsford 240 Marawood/CWC 5 2 1b 6
Mineral Point 240 SWAL 5 2 1b 6
Auburndale 230 Marawood/CWC 6 1 1b 6
Coleman 225 Northwoods 7 0 1b 6
Regis 212 Cloverbelt * 7 0 1b 6
Reedsville 192 Big East * 5 2 1b 6
Crandon 232 Northwoods ^ 4 3 1b 7
Roncalli 229 Eastern Wisconsin ^ 5 2 1b 7
Whitehall 221 Dairyland 3 4 2.2 7
Kenosha St. Joseph 219 Midwest Classic-Small 6 1 1b 7
Black Hawk/Warren 218 Six Rivers 7 0 1b 7
Bangor 215 Scenic Bluffs 6 1 1b 7
Shiocton 214 Northwoods 3 4 2.3d 7
Boyceville 213 Dunn-St. Croix 6 1 1b 7
Iowa-Grant 212 Six Rivers 4 3 1b 7
Glenwood City 203 Dunn-St. Croix 4 3 1b 7
Crivitz 202 Northwoods 5 2 1b 7
Edgar 201 Marawood/CWC 7 0 1b 7
Iola-Scandinavia 201 Marawood/CWC 4 3 1b 7
Kenosha Christian Life 196 Midwest Classic-Small 4 3 1b 7
Cashton 194 Scenic Bluffs 5 2 1b 7
Eleva-Strum 194 Dairyland 4 3 1b 7
Wauzeka/Seneca 186 Six Rivers 3 4 2.3c 7
Johnson Creek 181 Trailways 7 0 1b 7
Spring Valley 180 Dunn-St. Croix 7 0 1b 7
Cochrane-Fountain City 180 Dairyland 6 1 1b 7
Pittsville 176 Marawood/CWC 3 4 2.3d 7
Blair-Taylor 174 Dairyland 6 1 1b 7
Lourdes Academy 172 Trailways 4 3 1b 7
Randolph 171 Trailways 5 2 1b 7
Potosi/Cassville 166 Six Rivers 6 1 1b 7
River Ridge 166 Six Rivers 5 2 1b 7
Hillsboro 151 Scenic Bluffs 4 3 1b 7
Pepin/Alma 148 Dairyland 6 1 1b 7
Royall 140 Scenic Bluffs 3 4 2.3d 7
Turtle Lake 122 Dunn-St. Croix 4 3 1b 7
Ithaca 116 Scenic Bluffs 7 0 1b 7
Cambria-Friesland 113 Trailways 5 2 1b 7

About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

Tag(s): News Archive  News  Travis Wilson  Football Playoffs