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Week 9 Football Preview: Special Playoff Scenarios Edition

10/09/2018, 10:30pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

There are several big games this week, including many that will impact conference races. However, the big story statewide is the playoffs; who is in, who needs to win to get in, who is on the bubble. As such, we're going to change up the preview this week and focus on those games that may impact playoff qualification. We will break them down on a conference-by-conference basis. To view our current Playoff Qualifying Report, click here. To check out our PROJECTED Playoff Field, click here.
 
WisSports.net will have a projected playoff field posted shortly after all games are completed Friday night, likely between 10:30 and 11 pm. The WIAA has indicated they will release the official playoff field around midnight, and we will be posting it immediately as well. The WIAA will be releasing the 8-team regional groupings around 1:30 am, and the actual playoff brackets and match-ups on Saturday afternoon. WisSports.net is once again your BEST source for the brackets and other playoff information so be sure to visit WSN frequently and hit refresh often.

Please note, this report assumes several things:

  • All teams that are currently playoff-eligible (meaning they've guaranteed themselves at least a .500 conference record) will get in the playoffs. Every year since 2012 has seen every team that finished .500 or better in conference make the playoff field.. There is a chance that one or two .500 teams could miss out via tiebreakers if multiple games go a certain way, but it is unlikely and for the sake of time and space, we didn't address those games in the write-ups.
  • Teams that finish 2-3 in conference will not get to the playoffs due to changes in tiebreaker procedures several years ago. If the WIAA does need to take sub-.500 teams, the order would go 4-5, then 3-4, and finally 2-3. There would likely be 15 to 20 teams at least above any 2-3 conference record teams. Thus, teams who have a best case scenario of finishing 2-3 are not mentioned in the game write-ups and are considered "Out". There is an outside chance that there would be enough games go a certain way that a 2-3 team or two could get in, but it is highly unlikely.

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(Conference record in parenthesis)

Badger-North

Baraboo (3-3) at Reedsburg (3-3) – The winner clinches a playoff spot. If Baraboo loses, their tiebreaker scenario would not be very strong, and they’d be unlikely to meet the playoffs, though not completely out of it. If Reedsburg loses, their tiebreaker number would actually be pretty strong, and they’d still be likely to get in the postseason.

Sauk Prairie (2-4) at Mont Horeb/Barneveld (4-2) – While very unlikely, a win by Sauk Prairie would put them on the proverbial bubble, with the victory over MHB providing them a very good tiebreaker number.

In: Waunakee, Mount Horeb/Barneveld, DeForest

Out: Beaver Dam, Portage

Badger-South

Edgewood (1-5) at Milton (2-4) – We’ve projected Milton to win and wind up as one of the absolute bubble teams, either the last to get in or first to get left out amongst 3-4 conference teams.

Monroe (2-4) at Oregon (5-1) – A Monroe victory would certainly be an upset, but it would get the Cheesemakers into contention for the playoffs, with a good shot to get in thanks to a solid tiebreaker number.

Fort Atkinson (0-6) at Stoughton (3-3) – A loss to Fort Atkinson would be a disaster, likely preventing the Vikings from qualifying for the playoffs. A win gets them in.

In: Monona Grove, Oregon, Watertown

Out: Edgewood, Fort Atkinson

Bay

Waupaca (3-4) at Xavier (3-4) – This is a huge match-up, with the winner getting in the playoffs while the loser stays home. Waupaca saw a 26-year playoff streak come to an end last season and is looking to start a new streak.

In: West De Pere, Menasha, New London, Seymour

Out: Green Bay East, Shawano, Green Bay West

Big East

Ozaukee (4-3) at Manitowoc Lutheran (3-4) – A win gets ManLu in the playoffs, and this is one that many people will be keeping an eye on as a key swing game. If Manitowoc Lutheran gets in, not only does it make for one less spot for a 3-4 team, but it pushes the cutline up one spot for every division.

Random Lake (3-4) at Cedar Grove-Belgium (7-0) – It is unlikely that Random Lake would pull off the upset, but if they do, they get in.

Reedsville (6-1) at Oostburg (3-4) – An upset win would get Oostburg in the playoffs while a loss leaves them out.

In: Cedar Grove-Belgium, Reedsville, Hilbert, Howards Grove, Ozaukee

Out: Mishicot, Kohler/Sheb. Lutheran/Christian, Saint Mary Catholic

Big Eight

Middleton (5-3) at Madison La Follette (4-4) – La Follette can clinch with a win but is almost certainly in with a loss as well.

Sun Prairie (7-1) at Madison West (3-5) – West is eliminated with a loss but is very likely to get in with an upset victory.

In: Madison Memorial, Sun Prairie, Janesville Craig, Verona, Middleton

Out: Beloit Memorial, Madison East, Janesville Parker

Big Rivers

Hudson (5-1) at Chippewa Falls (2-4) – ChiHi is eliminated with a loss, but a win could very well get them into the playoffs with a solid tiebreaker number.

Menomonie (4-2) at Eau Claire Memorial (2-4) – ECM is eliminated with a loss but its tiebreaker number could get them in if they win.

Rice Lake (4-2) at Superior (2-4) – Superior is eliminated with a loss but its tiebreaker number could get them in if they win.

In: Hudson, River Falls, Rice Lake, Menomonie

Out: Eau Claire North

Capitol-North

Watertown Luther Prep (2-2) at Lake Mills (3-1) – Luther Prep must win to get in, or be eliminated with a loss.

In: Lakeside Lutheran, Lake Mills, Lodi

Out: Columbus, Poynette

Capitol-South

Belleville (1-2) at Marshall (2-1) – This one is one of the key swing games in Week 9. Belleville actually has a better overall record than Marshall, and needs to win to qualify for the playoffs. If Belleville wins and gets in, that’s one less sub-.500 teams that makes it.

In: Cambridge, Marshall, New Glarus/Monticello

Out: Waterloo

Classic Eight

Oconomowoc (0-7) at Kettle Moraine (3-4) – Kettle Moraine needs to win to get in, as a loss to winless Oconomowoc would be quite a shock.

In: Muskego, Catholic Memorial, Arrowhead, Waukesha West, Mukwonago

Out: Waukesha North, Waukesha South, Oconomowoc

Cloverbelt

In: Regis, Spencer/Columbus Catholic, Colby, Stanley-Boyd

Out: Fall Creek, Neillsville/Granton, Osseo-Fairchild, Cadott, Altoona

Cloverwood

Assumption (3-3) at Thorp (0-6) – Assumption can clinch with a victory, but an upset loss would be problematic for the Royals’ chances to get in. If they lose, their hopes could ride on Greenwood beating Gilman to improve their tiebreaker number.

Greenwood (3-3) at Gilman (4-2) – Greenwood can clinch a playoff spot with a victory, while a loss would leave the program very much on the bubble.

In: Abbotsford, Loyal, Gilman

Out: Athens, Owen-Withee, Thorp

Coulee

Luther (0-4) at Arcadia (2-2) – Arcadia clinches with a win but is out with a surprising loss.

Viroqua (2-2) at Westby (4-0) – Viroqua started off hot, but a loss would leave them out of the playoffs. A win over the league-leading Norsemen, their biggest rivals, is a big ask, but a big opportunity as well.

In: Westby, G-E-T

Out: Luther, Black River Falls

CWC-Large

Wittenberg-Birnamwood (1-5) at Manawa (3-3) – Manawa gets in with a win but a loss would leave them on the low end of the tiebreakers.

Shiocton (2-4) at Weyauwega-Fremont (0-6) – Shiocton is out with a loss, but if the Chiefs get a win, they have a good shot to get in, thanks in large part to a non-conference win over Rosholt (as long as the Hornets win).

Bonduel (4-2) at Pacelli (2-4) – Pacelli is eliminated with a loss, but a win would likely get the Cardinals in thanks to a good tiebreaker number from a victory over Bonduel.

In: Amherst, Iola-Scandinavia, Bonduel

Out: Wittenberg-Birnamwood, Weyauwega-Fremont

CWC-Small

Tri-County (1-3) at Rosholt (2-2) – A win-and-get-in or lose and stay home game for Rosholt.

In: Almond-Bancroft, Pittsville

Out: Marion/Tigerton, Tri-County, Wild Rose

Dairyland

Blair-Taylor (2-3) at Augusta (1-4) – Blair-Taylor’s win over Independence/Gilmanton last week kept them in the playoff picture, and now they just need to beat Augusta to complete the improbable run. A loss would eliminate the Wildcats.

In: Melrose-Mindoro, Cochrane-Fountain City, Independence/Gilmanton, Eleva-Strum

Out: Augusta, Whitehall

Dunn-St. Croix

Durand (2-3) at Mondovi (4-1) – Durand has to win on the road against a Mondovi team looking to secure of the league title to get into the playoffs, or be eliminated.

In: Elk Mound, Mondovi, Spring Valley, Glenwood City

Out: Boyceville, Colfax

East Central

Kewaskum (2-4) at Campbellsport (3-3) – A Campbellsport win gets the Cougars in and leaves Kewaskum out for the first time since 2004. A win would leave both teams on the bubble, subject to what happens in other games. 

Winneconne (6-0) at Ripon (3-3) – Ripon needs to win to clinch a spot, while a loss would leave them beholden to tiebreakers, which they rank relatively highly in.

In: Winneconne, Plymouth, Berlin

Out: Waupun, Kettle Moraine Lutheran

Eastern Wisconsin

Two Rivers (3-3) at Sheboygan Falls (3-3) – The winner gets into the playoffs. The loser has to sweat out tiebreakers. Sheboygan Falls would rank very highly thanks in large part to a win over Valders, while New Holstein would fare well in tiebreakers also, though not quite as high.

In: Kiel, New Holstein, Valders, Chilton

Out: Roncalli, Brillion

Flyway

Winnebago Lutheran (2-2) at Omro (3-1) – Winnebago Lutheran must win to get in or be left out of the playoffs.

In: Saint Mary’s Springs, Omro, Mayville

Out: Laconia, Lomira

FRCC

Sheboygan South (1-7) at Ashwaubenon (4-4) – A win would get Ashwaubenon in while the Jaguars should be fine even if they do get upset.

Notre Dame (6-2) at De Pere (4-4) – The host Redbirds need a victory to clinch a playoff appearance but should be in even if they lose.

In: Bay Port, Pulaski, Notre Dame, Green Bay Preble

Out: Green Bay Southwest, Manitowoc Lutheran, Sheboygan South, Sheboygan North

Great Northern

Antigo (2-3) at Merrill (1-4) – Antigo needs to win to get in or they will be left out.

In: Ashland, Mosinee, Medford

Out: Lakeland, Merrill, Rhinelander

Greater Metro

Sussex Hamilton (4-3) at Germantown (3-4) – Germantown needs to win to get in the playoffs, or the Warhawks will be left at home.

In: Marquette, Brookfield Central, Brookfield East, Sussex Hamilton, Menomonee Falls

Out: Wauwatosa West, West Allis Hale, Wauwatosa East

Heart O’North

Bloomer (4-2) at Hayward (3-3) – A win clinches a playoff spot for Hayward, while the Hurricanes would need to sweat out tiebreakers if they lose. Their tiebreaker number is average, so they’d be one of the last teams in, or last ones out.

Cumberland (4-2) at Ladysmith (2-4) – Ladysmith is eliminated with a loss but would stand a good chance to get in with a victory, as the win over Cumberland would give them a solid tiebreaker number.

In: Northwestern, Bloomer, Spooner

Out: Chetek-Weyerhaeuser, Barron

Independent

Three Lakes/Phelps at Northland Pines (4-4 overall) – Pines would be in with a win but out with a loss.

In: Hurley

Lakeland-North

In: Grantsburg, Unity, Webster, Lake Holcombe/Cornell

Out: Saint Croix Falls, Cameron

Lakeland-South

Turtle Lake (2-3) at Elmwood/Plum City (3-2) – This is an important swing game that will have many eyes on it this week. Turtle Lake is in with a win, not only making room for one fewer sub-.500 team but bumping up the cutlines in most divisions most likely. A loss eliminates the Lakers.

In: Clear Lake, Elmwood/Plum City

Out: Pepin/Alma, Flambeau

Marawood

In: Edgar, Stratford, Rib Lake/Prentice, Auburndale

Out: Marathon, Tomahawk, Chequamegon

Metro Classic

Catholic Central (2-4) at Racine Lutheran (4-2) – It would certainly be an upset, but if Catholic Central can get the victory they’d have a good shot to get in with a solid tiebreaker number, thanks in large part to the RaLu win. BCC is eliminated with a loss.

Dominican (3-4) at Shoreland Lutheran (1-5) – Dominican should win and get in, but a loss would leave them in a position of needing to worry about tiebreakers, and their tiebreaker position would be dependent on what happens in the other Week 9 Metro Classic games.

Racine St. Catherine’s (6-0) at Kenosha St. Joseph (3-3) – St. Joe’s had to cancel a game a couple weeks ago, but the Lancers have two of three since then to get back in the picture. A shocking win would get them in, while a loss would leave them in the tiebreaker group, where their number is not very good.

In: Racine St. Catherine’s, Martin Luther, Racine Lutheran

Out: Shoreland Lutheran, Saint Thomas More

Middle Border

Amery (2-4) at Baldwin-Woodville (3-3) – A Baldwin win gets them in and leaves Amery out. If Amery gets the victory, both teams would be looking at sweating out tiebreaker procedures. Baldwin has a much better tiebreaker number, while Amery might be on the outside looking in.

Prescott (0-6) at Ellsworth (2-4) – Ellsworth is out with a loss, while a win likely gets them in, though that could be dependent on Baldwin-Woodville winning.

Osceola (2-4) at New Richmond (4-2) – Osceola is eliminated with a loss, while a win likely gets them in the playoffs.

In: Saint Croix Central, Somerset, New Richmond

Out: Prescott

Midwest Classic

St. John’s NW Military (1-4) at University School (2-3) – USM gets in with a win while an upset loss would leave them on the outside looking in.

In: Lake Country Lutheran, Saint Francis, Living Word Lutheran

Out: Brookfield Academy, St. John’s NW Military, HOPE Christian

Milwaukee City-Blackbourn

In: Reagan, Vincent, Career & Tech. Ed., South

Out: Pulaski, Madison, North

Milwaukee City-Richardson

In: Riverside, King, Marshall, Hamilton

Out: Bradley Tech, Bay View, Washington

Mississippi Valley

Sparta (2-4) at Aquinas (1-5) – Sparta won its way back into contention by defeating Holmen last week, and one more win over Aquinas should get them in, as the Holmen victory would give them a very high tiebreaker number.

La Crosse Logan (2-4) at Tomah (1-5) – Logan becomes a fringe team but one with a solid tiebreaker number with a win, while a loss eliminates the Rangers.

In: Holmen, Onalaska, La Crosse Central, West Salem

Out: Aquinas, Tomah

MONLPC-Large

In: Kewaunee, Southern Door, Peshtigo, Coleman

Out: Algoma, Oconto, Sturgeon Bay

MONLPC-Small

Suring (2-3) at Wabeno/Laona (3-2) – One that many people will be paying attention to, Suring is in with a win but out with a loss. Their status will determine how many sub-.500 teams make it in as well as where the cutlines fall.

In: Crivitz, Northern Elite, Wabeno/Laona, Three Lakes/Phelps

Out: Crandon, White Lake/Elcho

North Eastern

Fox Valley Lutheran (3-4) at Marinette (2-5) – FVL needs a win to get in or they will be staying home for the playoffs.

Denmark (3-4) at Freedom (5-2) – Denmark will need to get a win to qualify for the playoffs or be left out.

In: Little Chute, Wrightstown, Freedom, Luxemburg-Casco

Out: Marinette, Oconto Falls, Clintonville

North Shore

West Bend East (5-3) at Whitefish Bay (4-4) – Whitefish Bay can clinch with a victory but should still get in even with a loss, since teams that finish 4-5 in conference are the first to get in via the WIAA’s tiebreaker procedures for teams under .500 in league play.

Port Washington (5-3) at Grafton (4-4) – Grafton can clinch its first playoff appearance since 1997 with a win, but the Blackhawks should get in regardless.

In: Homestead, Slinger, West Bend East, Port Washington, Hartford

Out: Nicolet, Cedarburg, West Bend West

Ridge & Valley

Wauzeka/Seneca (5-0) at Riverdale (2-3) – Riverdale would need to pull off a shocker and defeat league-leading Wauzeka/Seneca in order to qualify for the playoffs, or the Chieftains will be left home.

In: Wauzeka/Seneca, De Soto, Ithaca

Out: Wonewoc/Weston, Kickapoo/La Farge, North Crawford

Rock Valley

Beloit Turner (4-4) at East Troy (6-2) – Beloit Turner can secure its playoff spot with a win over East Troy, but even with a loss, Turner should be in the playoffs.

Brodhead/Juda (3-5) at McFarland (8-0) – Brodhead/Juda is eliminated with a loss to the Spartans, but a Cardinals win should qualify them for the playoffs.

Edgerton (7-1) at Big Foot (3-5) – Big Foot is out for sure with a loss, though an upset victory should get the team in the postseason.

In: McFarland, Edgerton, East Troy, Jefferson

Out: Clinton, Whitewater, Evansville/Albany

Scenic Bluffs

In: Bangor, Brookwood, Royall

Out: Hillsboro, New Lisbon, Cashton

Six Rivers

Belmont (0-6) at Highland (2-4) – Highland is eliminated with a loss but a victory would put them squarely on the bubble, where they’d have a solid tiebreaker number but their fate would be determined by how other teams do.

Benton/Scales Mound (IL) (3-3) at River Ridge (2-4) – A bubble game in the truest sense, a Benton win gets them in and leaves River Ridge out. A victory by River Ridge would leave both on the bubble, with River Ridge in a good spot to get in, while Benton/Scales Mound would dependent on Highland winning, which would help their cause and likely put them in as well.

In: Black Hawk, Pecatonica/Argyle, Potosi/Cassville

Out: Shullsburg, Belmont

South Central

Nekoosa (1-3) at Adams-Friendship (2-2) – Adams is in with a win and out with a loss.

Wisconsin Dells (2-2) at Mauston (4-0) – The Dells needs to win to get in the playoffs or be left at home.

In: Mauston, Wautoma

Out: Nekoosa, Westfield

Southeast

Racine Case (1-5) at Kenosha Bradford (2-4) – If Kenosha Bradford loses, they’re out. If they win, they likely need Badger, who they beat in a non-conference game, to win this week and get in the playoffs to improve their tiebreaker number.

Franklin (6-0) at Kenosha Tremper (2-4) – Tremper will need to pull off the shocker in order to qualify for the playoffs, something that would be very likely with a win. If the Trojans lose, they’re done.

In: Franklin, Kenosha Indian Trail, Oak Creek, Racine Horlick

Out: Racine Case, Racine Park

Southern Lakes

Union Grove (3-3) at Badger (3-3) – The winner gets in while the loser would need to go through the tiebreaker procedure. Union Grove would be in a slightly better position in tiebreakers, but both teams would be among the final spots if they did get manage to get in at 3-4.

Elkhorn (2-4) at Burlington (4-2) – Burlington was running clocked by Wilmot last week, so this is certainly a winnable game for Elkhorn. The Elks are out with a loss, but a win would give them a solid tiebreaker number and good chance to get in as a 3-4 team.

In: Waterford, Wilmot, Burlington

Out: Westosha Central, Delavan-Darien/Williams Bay

SWAL

Darlington (2-3) at Boscobel (0-5) – Darlington should be able to take care of business at winless Boscobel, which would get the Redbirds in. A stunning loss would leave them at home.

Iowa-Grant (2-3) at Cuba City (3-2) – Iowa-Grant is in with a win but out with a loss. This is a key swing game many teams will be watching, as it involves a chance for I-G to steal away one of the 3-4 bids as well as push the cutlines up potentially.

In: Fennimore, Mineral Point, Cuba City

Out: Southwestern, Boscobel

SWC

Platteville (2-2) at River Valley (3-1) – Platteville needs to win to get in, while a loss eliminates the Hillmen.

Lancaster (2-2) at Dodgeville (1-3) – Lancaster should have no problem with the Dodgers and get in, but if the Flying Arrows are upset, they’d stay home in the playoffs for the first time since 1992.

In: Prairie du Chien, River Valley

Out: Richland Center, Dodgeville

Trailways-Large

Markesan (4-1) at Pardeeville (2-3) – Pardeeville needs a win to get into the postseason or they will be left out.

In: Horicon/Hustisford, Markesan, Palmyra-Eagle

Out: Montello/Princeton/Green Lake, Parkview

Trailways-Small

Randolph (3-3) at Cambria-Friesland (3-3) – The winner gets in, the loser has to sweat out a tiebreaker. Thanks in part to wins over Wayland Academy, who only plays seven games and thus helps in their defeated opponents win/loss percentage tiebreaker, both teams have average to slightly above average chances of getting in even with a loss.

Fall River (5-1) at Rio (2-4) – These rivals square off with Rio needing to win to stay alive for the playoffs, getting a pretty good tiebreaker number if they do pick up the victory. A Rio loss would leave them at home for the postseason.

In: Fall River, Johnson Creek, Lourdes Academy

Out: Deerfield, Wayland Academy

VFA-North

Kaukauna (3-4) at Appleton West (2-5) – Kaukauna needs to get a win or they will be out of the playoffs. A victory secures their spot.

In: Kimberly, Appleton Northern

Out: Appleton East, Appleton West

VFA-South

In: Fond du Lac, Neenah, Hortonville

Out: Oshkosh West, Oshkosh North

VFA-West

Stevens Point (3-4) at Fond du Lac (7-0) – This is the same spot Stevens Point found itself in last year, needing to beat Fond du Lac in Week 9 to complete a late postseason surge. The Panthers face the same unenviable task this season, because a loss leaves them out, and the VFA-West with just one playoff team.

In: Marshfield

Out: Wisconsin Rapids, D.C. Everest, Wausau West

Woodland-East

Pewaukee (4-3) at Whitnall (3-4) – This crossover game counts in the league standings, meaning Whitnall can get into the playoffs with a win, while a loss leaves them out.

In: Shorewood/Messmer, South Milwaukee, Cudahy

Out: Milwaukee Lutheran, Greenfield, Brown Deer

Woodland-West

Wisconsin Lutheran (3-4) at Milwaukee Lutheran (2-5) – Wisconsin Lutheran missed the playoffs last year for the first time since joining the WIAA in 2000, but the Vikings can start a new streak with a win. A loss leaves them out. It will be interesting to see how Milwaukee Lutheran handles this game after finding out after last week’s game that they are forced to forfeit three early-season victories due to use of an ineligible player.

In: New Berlin Eisenhower, Greendale, New Berlin West, Pewaukee

Out: West Allis Central, Pius XI Catholic

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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