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Will more sub-.500 conference teams make the football playoffs in 2020 realignment proposal?

02/10/2019, 9:45pm CST
By Travis Wilson

Sparta squeaked into the playoffs with a 3-4 conference record last year before a strong run to Level 3

The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) and the Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association (WIAA) released updated conference assignments for the statewide football-only conference realignment proposal last week. The move was necessitated by 18 new teams declaring for 8-Player Football by 2020, the adjustment to several cooperative programs, and several other minor changes.

A common question asked by many over the last several months, since the proposal was first announced in July of 2018, has centered around the impact this plan, and the continued loss of teams to 8-Player Football, will have on the number of teams that make the playoffs with conference records below .500.

The number of teams finishing below .500 in conference yet still making the playoffs has fluctuated over the years since first occurring in 2012. There were four such programs that made the playoffs that first instance, with six or seven qualifying the next several years. In 2016, no sub-.500 teams made the postseason, but 12 did the following year and 14 in 2018.

With fewer teams overall (376 expected in 2020 compared to 392 in the 2018 season), it is to be expected that more spots would be available for sub-.500 teams by the time the WFCA/WIAA plan would be implemented. However, what impact would the standardization to seven conference games for all teams, compared to anywhere from four to nine currently, have on that number? No longer would teams be able to finish at .500 and make the playoffs.

There has been no indication from the WIAA that the number of divisions or playoff qualifiers will shrink, though it could happen down the line as more teams make the switch to 8-Player.

Two-Thirds of Teams that finish 3-4 in 2020 expected to make playoffs

Using past seasons as a comparison, WSN has projected that approximately 195 teams out of 376 would finish at 4-3 or better in conference play in the 2020 season. That would leave 29 spots for teams that finish under .500 in league action.

Again using past seasons as a guide, we project that 44 teams would finish at 3-4 in conference. There would be 29 playoff spots for those 44 teams, meaning 65.9% of teams that would finish 3-4 in conference play would qualify for the postseason.

This is important for those programs who would be on the playoff bubble, or may be on the low end of the enrollment scale in their league. Those additional postseason spots for sub-.500 conference teams, with a nearly two-thirds chance of making it even if you finish 3-4, should make the 2020 realignment plan more palatable for those who feel their conference is especially strong as well.

To determine the projected number of teams that would finish over .500 in conference play and those that would finish at 3-4 for the 2020 season, we reviewed information from the past three years.

In the 2016 season, there were 142 teams that played seven conference games. 76 of those teams (53.5%) finished 4-3 or better, while 17 (11.97%) finished at 3-4.

For the 2017 season, there were 130 teams that got in seven league games. Of those, 64 (49.2%) finished 4-3 or better and 16 (12.3%) finished 3-4.

The 2018 season saw 124 teams compete in seven league contests. 65 of them (52.4%) went 4-3, with 14 more (11.29%) going 3-4.

We took the average percent of teams that went 4-3 or better (51.723%) and multiplied that by the expected total number of teams of 376 for the 2020 season. This equaled the 195 projected to finish at 4-3 or better.

We also took the average percent of teams over the past three years that finished at exactly 3-4 in conference play (11.8561%) and multiplied that by 376 expected teams to project the 44 squads that would be in the running for additional playoff spots.

There are certainly some teams that understandably feel their leagues are difficult or see challenges associated with being on the smaller side of their conference. With more than 25 playoff spots expected for teams that finish 3-4 in conference play in 2020, those teams have additional hope, and opportunity.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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