It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 215 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better. The 216th team in the playoffs is Hurley, technically an Independent this year, who gets in thanks to securing at least six overall victories.
That leaves 8 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted last year, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
So the first two spots for sub-.500 teams go to Big Eight teams Sun Prairie and Janesville Parker, who I project to go 4-5 in league play.
Now, 6 spots are left. A total of 22 teams went 3-4 in league play and tie for those 6 spots:
Clear Lake
Eau Claire Memorial
Fennimore
Frederic
Hartford
Independence/Gilmanton
Kenosha Christian Life
Kenosha Tremper
Lake Holcombe/Cornell
Manawa
Martin Luther
Milwaukee Lutheran
Mukwonago
Onalaska
Pittsville
Prescott
Roncalli
Spooner
Sussex Hamilton
Union Grove
Wabeno/Laona
Wausaukee
To figure out which 6 of those 22 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. Most of the 22 teams got wins over the bottom three teams in their leagues. The team whose defeated conference opponents had the most league wins is Onalaska with 6, thanks in large part to a victory over West Salem, who I project to go 4-3 in league play. Clear Lake, Frederic, Lake Holcombe/Cornell, and Wausaukee have a number of 4, and are in.
That leaves just one spot for the remaining 17 teams. We follow the WIAA criteria to head-to-head result, but since all teams did not play each other, we skip that. Next is result versus conference champion, but none of the 17 teams beat the league champion in their conference.
We head to "Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall winning percentage." Similar to the criteria applied earlier, this gives teams credit for beating the better teams on their league schedule, but looks at overall win percentage. Based on this criteria, Mukwonago is the final team in the playoffs. Mukwonago's league wins are over Kettle Moraine, Waukesha North, and Waukesha South, who posted solid overall records.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
* Please note that according to our projections, there is a tie on the D5/6 cutline between three teams with enrollment numbers of 258: Grantsburg, Pardeeville, Unity. The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2015, though that information is not publicly known at this time. Therefore, we don't know which of those teams would end up in D5 and which would slide to D6. WSN has reached out to the coaches and athletic directors at those schools to request their Third Friday count in order to better be able to project a possible tiebreaker. We will update accordingly when we are provided the information.
Team | Enrollment | PROJECTED Division |
---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2510 | 1 |
Arrowhead | 2257 | 1 |
Sun Prairie | 2204 | 1 |
Green Bay Preble | 2184 | 1 |
Marquette University | 2166 | 1 |
Stevens Point | 2139 | 1 |
Racine Horlick | 2132 | 1 |
Middleton | 2112 | 1 |
Fond du Lac | 2100 | 1 |
Oak Creek | 2087 | 1 |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2079 | 1 |
Milw. Morse-Marshall | 2041 | 1 |
Madison Memorial | 1924 | 1 |
Bay Port | 1812 | 1 |
Appleton North | 1800 | 1 |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 1735 | 1 |
D.C. Everest | 1660 | 1 |
Milwaukee Bradley Tech | 1648 | 1 |
Muskego | 1618 | 1 |
Appleton East | 1617 | 1 |
Madison East | 1610 | 1 |
Mukwonago | 1594 | 1 |
Janesville Parker | 1571 | 1 |
Oconomowoc | 1546 | 1 |
Verona | 1511 | 1 |
Kimberly | 1494 | 1 |
Milwaukee King | 1481 | 1 |
Appleton West | 1465 | 1 |
Franklin | 1453 | 1 |
Madison La Follette | 1453 | 1 |
Milw. Washington | 1445 | 1 |
Badger | 1433 | 1 |
Germantown | 1399 | 2 |
Chippewa Falls | 1391 | 2 |
Menomonee Falls | 1376 | 2 |
De Pere | 1346 | 2 |
Superior | 1341 | 2 |
Brookfield Central | 1324 | 2 |
Greenfield | 1308 | 2 |
Watertown | 1303 | 2 |
Brookfield East | 1285 | 2 |
Homestead | 1282 | 2 |
Oshkosh North | 1220 | 2 |
Green Bay Southwest | 1194 | 2 |
Waukesha West | 1178 | 2 |
Burlington | 1171 | 2 |
Waunakee | 1163 | 2 |
Cedarburg | 1160 | 2 |
Holmen | 1152 | 2 |
Wilmot | 1124 | 2 |
Hortonville | 1098 | 2 |
Oregon | 1094 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1094 | 2 |
Waterford | 1090 | 2 |
Wauwatosa West | 1056 | 2 |
Stoughton | 1055 | 2 |
Ashwaubenon | 1048 | 2 |
DeForest | 1043 | 2 |
Milton | 1016 | 2 |
Whitefish Bay | 995 | 2 |
Menasha | 992 | 2 |
Menomonie | 984 | 2 |
Slinger | 968 | 2 |
Tomah | 938 | 2 |
Greendale | 937 | 3 |
Monona Grove | 925 | 3 |
New Richmond | 916 | 3 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 882 | 3 |
Merrill | 881 | 3 |
Onalaska | 868 | 3 |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 848 | 3 |
West De Pere | 845 | 3 |
La Crosse Logan | 832 | 3 |
Reedsburg | 820 | 3 |
Plymouth | 813 | 3 |
Antigo | 812 | 3 |
Pewaukee | 812 | 3 |
Whitnall | 793 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 786 | 3 |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 727 | 3 |
Rice Lake | 724 | 3 |
Seymour | 710 | 3 |
Waupaca | 689 | 3 |
Catholic Memorial | 664 | 3 |
Evansville/Albany | 661 | 3 |
Mosinee | 650 | 3 |
Medford | 648 | 3 |
Luxemburg-Casco | 641 | 3 |
Jefferson | 636 | 3 |
Hayward | 626 | 3 |
Milwaukee Career & Tech. Ed. | 622 | 3 |
Kewaskum | 611 | 3 |
Xavier | 594 | 3 |
Edgerton | 580 | 3 |
West Salem | 567 | 3 |
Saint Francis | 561 | 3 |
Freedom | 559 | 4 |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 555 | 4 |
Berlin | 544 | 4 |
Sheboygan Falls | 540 | 4 |
East Troy | 535 | 4 |
Osceola | 534 | 4 |
Black River Falls | 524 | 4 |
Big Foot | 520 | 4 |
Lodi | 515 | 4 |
Mauston | 510 | 4 |
Two Rivers | 509 | 4 |
Somerset | 495 | 4 |
Little Chute | 489 | 4 |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 481 | 4 |
Winneconne | 473 | 4 |
Beloit Turner | 457 | 4 |
Mont/Princeton/Green Lake | 455 | 4 |
Kiel | 454 | 4 |
Northwestern | 453 | 4 |
Tomahawk | 452 | 4 |
River Valley | 451 | 4 |
Wrightstown | 446 | 4 |
Brodhead/Juda | 440 | 4 |
Nekoosa | 434 | 4 |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 424 | 4 |
Altoona | 424 | 4 |
Northland Pines | 420 | 4 |
Omro | 409 | 4 |
Wautoma | 404 | 4 |
Columbus | 400 | 4 |
Saint Croix Central | 393 | 4 |
University School | 387 | 4 |
Peshtigo | 380 | 5 |
Clinton | 377 | 5 |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 369 | 5 |
Bloomer | 364 | 5 |
Southern Door | 363 | 5 |
Marshall | 359 | 5 |
New Glarus/Monticello | 355 | 5 |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 350 | 5 |
Lakeside Lutheran | 350 | 5 |
New Holstein | 338 | 5 |
Brookfield Academy | 332 | 5 |
Prairie du Chien | 331 | 5 |
Arcadia | 329 | 5 |
Winnebago Lutheran | 329 | 5 |
Elk Mound | 328 | 5 |
Bonduel | 326 | 5 |
Oostburg | 324 | 5 |
Racine St. Catherine's | 320 | 5 |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 317 | 5 |
Saint Croix Falls | 317 | 5 |
Kewaunee | 312 | 5 |
Shoreland Lutheran | 311 | 5 |
Durand | 306 | 5 |
Amherst | 303 | 5 |
Stratford | 300 | 5 |
Stanley-Boyd | 298 | 5 |
Lancaster | 296 | 5 |
Cameron | 296 | 5 |
Waterloo | 279 | 5 |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 278 | 5 |
Mondovi | 261 | 5 |
Grantsburg* | 258 | 5 |
Unity* | 258 | 6 |
Pardeeville* | 258 | 6 |
Dodgeland | 255 | 6 |
Fall Creek | 250 | 6 |
Cuba City | 246 | 6 |
Saint Mary Catholic | 246 | 6 |
Northern Elite | 245 | 6 |
Lake Country Lutheran | 244 | 6 |
Shiocton | 244 | 6 |
Marathon | 241 | 6 |
Iola-Scandinavia | 239 | 6 |
Regis | 238 | 6 |
Crandon | 238 | 6 |
Markesan | 235 | 6 |
Saint Mary's Springs | 229 | 6 |
Lake Holcombe/Cornell | 224 | 6 |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 222 | 6 |
Mineral Point | 218 | 6 |
Melrose-Mindoro | 216 | 6 |
Whitehall | 215 | 6 |
Ozaukee | 215 | 6 |
Iowa-Grant | 214 | 6 |
Edgar | 211 | 6 |
Darlington | 209 | 6 |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 208 | 6 |
Abbotsford | 204 | 6 |
Elmwood/Plum City | 204 | 6 |
Spring Valley | 202 | 6 |
Coleman | 198 | 6 |
Athens | 197 | 6 |
Hurley | 197 | 6 |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 194 | 6 |
Catholic Central | 181 | 7 |
New Lisbon | 179 | 7 |
Randolph | 176 | 7 |
Gillett | 174 | 7 |
Bangor | 170 | 7 |
Eleva-Strum | 170 | 7 |
Loyal | 169 | 7 |
De Soto | 167 | 7 |
Flambeau | 167 | 7 |
McDonell Central | 166 | 7 |
Clear Lake | 166 | 7 |
Wild Rose | 163 | 7 |
Benton/Scales Mound | 159 | 7 |
Assumption | 155 | 7 |
Cashton | 155 | 7 |
Wausaukee | 154 | 7 |
Johnson Creek | 152 | 7 |
Frederic | 152 | 7 |
Owen-Withee | 149 | 7 |
Hillsboro | 148 | 7 |
Rio | 140 | 7 |
Pepin/Alma | 137 | 7 |
Clayton | 126 | 7 |
Almond-Bancroft | 120 | 7 |
Suring | 119 | 7 |
Port Edwards | 117 | 7 |
Potosi | 113 | 7 |
Ithaca | 112 | 7 |
Cambria-Friesland | 103 | 7 |
Black Hawk | 102 | 7 |
Weston | 89 | 7 |
Cassville | 78 | 7 |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.