It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last week of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 200+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better. The 215th team in the playoffs is Hurley, technically an Independent this year, who gets in thanks to securing at least six overall victories.
That leaves 9 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted last year, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
So the first two spots for sub-.500 teams go to Big Eight teams Sun Prairie and Janesville Parker, who I project to go 4-5 in league play.
Now, 7 spots are left. A total of 23 teams went 3-4 in league play and tie for those 7 spots:
Clear Lake
Eau Claire Memorial
Fennimore
Hartford
Independence/Gilmanton
Kenosha Bradford
Kenosha Christian Life
Manawa
Martin Luther
Menomonee Falls
Milwaukee Lutheran
Mukwonago
Onalaska
Pittsville
Prescott
Somerset
Spooner
Suring
Sussex Hamilton
Union Grove
Valders
Wabeno/Laona
West Allis Hale
To figure out which 7 of those 23 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. Most of the 23 teams got wins over the bottom three teams in their leagues. The team whose defeated conference opponents had the most league wins is Onalaska with 6, thanks in large part to a victory over West Salem, who I project to go 4-3 in league play. Interestingly, defending Division 4 champion Somerset, who I project to go 3-4 in league play with a win over Baldwin-Woodville in Week 9, gets in with a number of 5, thanks in large part to a victory earlier this year against Prescott, who I project to go 3-4 in league play.
Speaking of Prescott, I project the Cardinals to be one of the five teams tied for the final spots left, as all teams had a number of 4 based on the above criteria (defeated conference opponent league victories): Prescott, Menomonee Falls, Suring, Sussex Hamilton, West Allis Hale.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions.
A few notes on our PROJECTED divisions:
- Defending D1 champion Kimberly remains in D1. The Papermakers had won the title in D2 in 2013.
- Germantown, Chippewa Falls, De Pere, and Superior are notable teams at the top of D2.
- Greendale and Monona Grove, who met for the Division 3 title in 2013, would be the two largest teams in D3.
- Freedom, unbeaten and the champion of the North Eastern Conference, along with Sheboygan Falls, Osceola, and Berlin drop to D4.
- Spencer/Columbus Catholic, undefeated and ranked second in D4 currently, would fall to Division 5.
- We would avoid a tie on the D5/6 cutline, as Grantsburg, Pardeeville, and Unity would be in D6. They all have an enrollment number of 258.
- Coleman, Athens, Hilbert/Stockbridge, and Hurley are among interesting teams to drop to D7.
The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
Team | Enrollment | PROJECTED Division |
---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2510 | 1 |
Arrowhead | 2257 | 1 |
Sun Prairie | 2204 | 1 |
Green Bay Preble | 2184 | 1 |
Marquette University | 2166 | 1 |
Stevens Point | 2139 | 1 |
Racine Horlick | 2132 | 1 |
Middleton | 2112 | 1 |
Fond du Lac | 2100 | 1 |
Oak Creek | 2087 | 1 |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2079 | 1 |
Milwaukee Morse.Marshall/Juneau/Languages/Carmen NW | 2041 | 1 |
Madison Memorial | 1924 | 1 |
Neenah | 1900 | 1 |
Bay Port | 1812 | 1 |
Appleton North | 1800 | 1 |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 1735 | 1 |
West Allis Hale | 1726 | 1 |
D.C. Everest | 1660 | 1 |
Milwaukee Bradley Tech | 1648 | 1 |
Muskego | 1618 | 1 |
Madison East | 1610 | 1 |
Verona | 1582 | 1 |
Janesville Parker | 1571 | 1 |
Oconomowoc | 1546 | 1 |
Kimberly | 1494 | 1 |
Milwaukee King | 1481 | 1 |
Appleton West | 1465 | 1 |
Franklin | 1453 | 1 |
Madison La Follette | 1453 | 1 |
Milwaukee Washington/Science/Collegiate | 1445 | 1 |
Sussex Hamilton | 1434 | 1 |
Badger | 1433 | 2 |
Germantown | 1399 | 2 |
Chippewa Falls | 1391 | 2 |
Menomonee Falls | 1376 | 2 |
De Pere | 1346 | 2 |
Superior | 1341 | 2 |
Brookfield Central | 1324 | 2 |
Greenfield | 1308 | 2 |
Watertown | 1303 | 2 |
Brookfield East | 1285 | 2 |
Homestead | 1282 | 2 |
Oshkosh North | 1220 | 2 |
Green Bay Southwest | 1194 | 2 |
Waukesha West | 1178 | 2 |
Burlington | 1171 | 2 |
Waunakee | 1163 | 2 |
Cedarburg | 1160 | 2 |
Holmen | 1152 | 2 |
Wilmot | 1124 | 2 |
Hortonville | 1098 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1094 | 2 |
Oregon | 1094 | 2 |
Waterford | 1090 | 2 |
Wauwatosa West | 1056 | 2 |
Ashwaubenon | 1048 | 2 |
DeForest | 1043 | 2 |
Milton | 1016 | 2 |
Whitefish Bay | 995 | 2 |
Menasha | 992 | 2 |
Menomonie | 984 | 2 |
Slinger | 968 | 2 |
Tomah | 938 | 2 |
Greendale | 937 | 3 |
Monona Grove | 925 | 3 |
New Richmond | 916 | 3 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 882 | 3 |
Merrill | 881 | 3 |
Onalaska | 868 | 3 |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 848 | 3 |
West De Pere | 845 | 3 |
La Crosse Logan | 832 | 3 |
Reedsburg | 820 | 3 |
Plymouth | 813 | 3 |
Antigo | 812 | 3 |
Pewaukee | 812 | 3 |
Whitnall | 793 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 786 | 3 |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 727 | 3 |
Rice Lake | 724 | 3 |
Seymour | 710 | 3 |
Waupaca | 689 | 3 |
Catholic Memorial | 664 | 3 |
Evansville/Albany | 661 | 3 |
Mosinee | 650 | 3 |
Medford | 648 | 3 |
Luxemburg-Casco | 641 | 3 |
Jefferson | 636 | 3 |
Hayward | 626 | 3 |
Milwaukee Career & Tech. Ed. | 622 | 3 |
Kewaskum | 611 | 3 |
Xavier | 594 | 3 |
Madison Edgewood | 585 | 3 |
West Salem | 567 | 3 |
Saint Francis | 561 | 3 |
Freedom | 559 | 4 |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 555 | 4 |
Berlin | 544 | 4 |
Sheboygan Falls | 540 | 4 |
East Troy | 535 | 4 |
Osceola | 534 | 4 |
Black River Falls | 524 | 4 |
Big Foot | 520 | 4 |
Lodi | 515 | 4 |
Mauston | 510 | 4 |
Two Rivers | 509 | 4 |
Somerset | 495 | 4 |
Little Chute | 489 | 4 |
Adams-Friendship | 487 | 4 |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 481 | 4 |
Winneconne | 473 | 4 |
Kiel | 459 | 4 |
Beloit Turner | 457 | 4 |
Mont/Princeton/Green Lake | 455 | 4 |
Northwestern | 453 | 4 |
Tomahawk | 452 | 4 |
River Valley | 451 | 4 |
Wrightstown | 446 | 4 |
Brodhead/Juda | 440 | 4 |
Nekoosa | 434 | 4 |
Altoona | 424 | 4 |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 424 | 4 |
Omro | 409 | 4 |
Wautoma | 404 | 4 |
Columbus | 400 | 4 |
Saint Croix Central | 393 | 4 |
University School | 387 | 4 |
Prescott | 384 | 5 |
Peshtigo | 380 | 5 |
Clinton | 377 | 5 |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 369 | 5 |
Bloomer | 364 | 5 |
Southern Door | 363 | 5 |
Marshall | 359 | 5 |
New Glarus/Monticello | 355 | 5 |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 350 | 5 |
Lakeside Lutheran | 350 | 5 |
New Holstein | 338 | 5 |
Brookfield Academy | 332 | 5 |
Prairie du Chien | 331 | 5 |
Arcadia | 329 | 5 |
Winnebago Lutheran | 329 | 5 |
Elk Mound | 328 | 5 |
Bonduel | 326 | 5 |
Oostburg | 324 | 5 |
Racine St. Catherine's | 320 | 5 |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 317 | 5 |
Saint Croix Falls | 317 | 5 |
Kewaunee | 312 | 5 |
Shoreland Lutheran | 311 | 5 |
Durand | 306 | 5 |
Amherst | 303 | 5 |
Stratford | 300 | 5 |
Stanley-Boyd | 298 | 5 |
Cameron | 296 | 5 |
Lancaster | 296 | 5 |
Colby | 289 | 5 |
Waterloo | 279 | 5 |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 278 | 5 |
Mondovi | 261 | 6 |
Grantsburg | 258 | 6 |
Pardeeville | 258 | 6 |
Unity | 258 | 6 |
Dodgeland | 255 | 6 |
Fall Creek | 250 | 6 |
Cuba City | 246 | 6 |
Saint Mary Catholic | 246 | 6 |
Northern Elite | 245 | 6 |
Lake Country Lutheran | 244 | 6 |
Shiocton | 244 | 6 |
Marathon | 241 | 6 |
Iola-Scandinavia | 239 | 6 |
Crandon | 238 | 6 |
Regis | 238 | 6 |
Markesan | 235 | 6 |
Saint Mary's Springs | 229 | 6 |
Lake Holcombe/Cornell | 224 | 6 |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 222 | 6 |
Mineral Point | 218 | 6 |
Melrose-Mindoro | 216 | 6 |
Ozaukee | 215 | 6 |
Whitehall | 215 | 6 |
Iowa-Grant | 214 | 6 |
Brookwood | 213 | 6 |
Edgar | 211 | 6 |
Darlington | 209 | 6 |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 208 | 6 |
Abbotsford | 204 | 6 |
Elmwood/Plum City | 204 | 6 |
Crivitz | 202 | 6 |
Spring Valley | 202 | 6 |
Coleman | 198 | 7 |
Athens | 197 | 7 |
Hurley | 197 | 7 |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 194 | 7 |
Catholic Central | 181 | 7 |
Randolph | 176 | 7 |
Gillett | 174 | 7 |
Bangor | 170 | 7 |
Eleva-Strum | 170 | 7 |
Loyal | 169 | 7 |
De Soto | 167 | 7 |
Flambeau | 167 | 7 |
McDonell Central | 166 | 7 |
Wild Rose | 163 | 7 |
Benton/Scales Mound | 159 | 7 |
Assumption | 155 | 7 |
Cashton | 155 | 7 |
Johnson Creek | 152 | 7 |
Owen-Withee | 149 | 7 |
Hillsboro | 148 | 7 |
Rio | 140 | 7 |
Pepin/Alma | 137 | 7 |
Clayton | 126 | 7 |
Almond-Bancroft | 120 | 7 |
Suring | 119 | 7 |
Port Edwards | 117 | 7 |
Potosi | 113 | 7 |
Ithaca | 112 | 7 |
Cambria-Friesland | 103 | 7 |
Black Hawk | 102 | 7 |
Weston | 89 | 7 |
Cassville | 78 | 7 |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.