It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last week of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 200+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 222 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.
That leaves two spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
There are five teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Beloit Turner, Brodhead/Juda, De Pere, Green Bay Preble, and Thorp.
To figure out which two of those five get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria. First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league.
Brodhead/Juda (thanks in large part to a win over Jefferson, who I project to finish 7-2) and Green Bay Preble (thanks in large part to a win over Ashwaubenon, who I project to go 5-4) tie with the top tiebreaker number amongst those teams, and thus fill the final two spots.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
* Please note that according to our projections, there are ties on the D3/4 and D6/7 cutlines (and several more potential ties if anything changes slightly). The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2016. After contacting the impacted the schools, the information below is correct using the enrollment tiebreakers; Fox Valley Lutheran goes to D3 and Xavier to D4; Edgar goes to D6 and Iowa-Grant goes to D7.
Division | 2016* | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1449 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 927 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 394 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 269 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 194 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
* - Projected thru Wk 9 |
Team | Enrollment | PROJECTED Division |
---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2597 | 1 |
Kenosha Bradford | 2385 | 1 |
Sun Prairie | 2271 | 1 |
Arrowhead | 2217 | 1 |
Racine Horlick | 2199 | 1 |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2149 | 1 |
Middleton | 2148 | 1 |
Marquette University | 2148 | 1 |
Madison West | 2134 | 1 |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 2133 | 1 |
Green Bay Preble | 2114 | 1 |
Stevens Point | 2078 | 1 |
Fond du Lac | 2070 | 1 |
Neenah | 1978 | 1 |
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall | 1941 | 1 |
Appleton North | 1921 | 1 |
Bay Port | 1823 | 1 |
Hudson | 1804 | 1 |
Wisconsin Rapids | 1634 | 1 |
D.C. Everest | 1627 | 1 |
Mukwonago | 1615 | 1 |
Verona | 1585 | 1 |
Oconomowoc | 1576 | 1 |
Milwaukee Vincent | 1528 | 1 |
Madison La Follette | 1525 | 1 |
Chippewa Falls | 1496 | 1 |
Franklin | 1493 | 1 |
Appleton West | 1491 | 1 |
Kimberly | 1483 | 1 |
Badger | 1474 | 1 |
Milwaukee King | 1462 | 1 |
Milwaukee Washington | 1449 | 1 |
Shorewood/Messmer | 1408 | 2 |
Hartford | 1402 | 2 |
Wausau West | 1394 | 2 |
Superior | 1340 | 2 |
Brookfield Central | 1330 | 2 |
Watertown | 1313 | 2 |
Homestead | 1299 | 2 |
Oshkosh North | 1273 | 2 |
Brookfield East | 1253 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bradley Tech | 1236 | 2 |
Waukesha West | 1233 | 2 |
Greenfield | 1231 | 2 |
Waunakee | 1196 | 2 |
Holmen | 1173 | 2 |
South Milwaukee | 1163 | 2 |
Green Bay Southwest | 1137 | 2 |
Cedarburg | 1135 | 2 |
Wilmot | 1125 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1125 | 2 |
Waterford | 1108 | 2 |
Hortonville | 1089 | 2 |
Pulaski | 1063 | 2 |
DeForest | 1058 | 2 |
Stoughton | 1047 | 2 |
Ashwaubenon | 1039 | 2 |
Wauwatosa West | 1038 | 2 |
Menasha | 1006 | 2 |
Monona Grove | 968 | 2 |
Menomonie | 962 | 2 |
Whitefish Bay | 953 | 2 |
Greendale | 935 | 2 |
New Richmond | 927 | 2 |
Fort Atkinson | 923 | 3 |
Onalaska | 897 | 3 |
West De Pere | 885 | 3 |
Merrill | 852 | 3 |
Port Washington | 846 | 3 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 845 | 3 |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 845 | 3 |
Pewaukee | 843 | 3 |
Reedsburg | 823 | 3 |
Whitnall | 823 | 3 |
La Crosse Logan | 822 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 800 | 3 |
Sparta | 794 | 3 |
Plymouth | 791 | 3 |
Shawano | 791 | 3 |
Delavan-Darien | 784 | 3 |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 768 | 3 |
Antigo | 727 | 3 |
Rice Lake | 724 | 3 |
Seymour | 710 | 3 |
Lakeland | 696 | 3 |
Monroe | 690 | 3 |
Catholic Memorial | 689 | 3 |
Medford | 668 | 3 |
Waupaca | 667 | 3 |
Jefferson | 665 | 3 |
Evansville/Albany | 664 | 3 |
Luxemburg-Casco | 645 | 3 |
Milwaukee Lutheran | 645 | 3 |
Hayward | 618 | 3 |
Kewaskum | 608 | 3 |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 571 | 3 |
Xavier | 571 | 4 |
Saint Francis | 567 | 4 |
Berlin | 560 | 4 |
Freedom | 553 | 4 |
East Troy | 541 | 4 |
Sheboygan Falls | 540 | 4 |
West Salem | 540 | 4 |
Osceola | 536 | 4 |
Ripon | 536 | 4 |
Mauston | 512 | 4 |
Lodi | 508 | 4 |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 506 | 4 |
Big Foot | 497 | 4 |
Adams-Friendship | 489 | 4 |
Little Chute | 477 | 4 |
Two Rivers | 476 | 4 |
Amery | 465 | 4 |
Wrightstown | 459 | 4 |
Kiel | 456 | 4 |
Martin Luther | 447 | 4 |
Platteville | 443 | 4 |
Northwestern | 441 | 4 |
Altoona | 433 | 4 |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 423 | 4 |
River Valley | 421 | 4 |
Nekoosa | 412 | 4 |
Brodhead/Juda | 411 | 4 |
Saint Croix Central | 406 | 4 |
Peshtigo | 405 | 4 |
Omro | 402 | 4 |
University School | 397 | 4 |
Columbus | 394 | 4 |
Lakeside Lutheran | 384 | 5 |
Clinton | 382 | 5 |
Bloomer | 382 | 5 |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 365 | 5 |
Horicon/Hustisford | 363 | 5 |
Valders | 357 | 5 |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 356 | 5 |
Westby | 349 | 5 |
Arcadia | 347 | 5 |
Southern Door | 343 | 5 |
Elk Mound | 342 | 5 |
Brookfield Academy | 334 | 5 |
New Glarus/Monticello | 333 | 5 |
Amherst | 332 | 5 |
Oostburg | 329 | 5 |
Racine St. Catherine's | 328 | 5 |
Kewaunee | 324 | 5 |
Oconto | 321 | 5 |
Stanley-Boyd | 313 | 5 |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 313 | 5 |
Stratford | 312 | 5 |
Durand | 310 | 5 |
Laconia | 308 | 5 |
Bonduel | 305 | 5 |
Winnebago Lutheran | 304 | 5 |
Cameron | 302 | 5 |
Lancaster | 300 | 5 |
Saint Croix Falls | 296 | 5 |
Random Lake | 291 | 5 |
Colby | 290 | 5 |
Waterloo | 280 | 5 |
Rib Lake/Prentice | 269 | 5 |
Unity | 267 | 6 |
Belleville | 267 | 6 |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 264 | 6 |
Grantsburg | 259 | 6 |
Markesan | 257 | 6 |
Lake Country Lutheran | 249 | 6 |
Saint Mary's Springs | 247 | 6 |
Dodgeland | 247 | 6 |
Cuba City | 244 | 6 |
Northern Elite | 241 | 6 |
Auburndale | 239 | 6 |
Marathon | 238 | 6 |
Ozaukee | 231 | 6 |
Crandon | 230 | 6 |
Racine Lutheran | 225 | 6 |
Regis | 223 | 6 |
Shiocton | 223 | 6 |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 221 | 6 |
Iola-Scandinavia | 220 | 6 |
Brookwood | 219 | 6 |
Wabeno/Laona | 218 | 6 |
Fennimore | 218 | 6 |
Manawa | 218 | 6 |
Melrose-Mindoro | 217 | 6 |
Glenwood City | 217 | 6 |
Darlington | 216 | 6 |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 213 | 6 |
Mineral Point | 211 | 6 |
Coleman | 199 | 6 |
Spring Valley | 199 | 6 |
Abbotsford | 196 | 6 |
Edgar | 194 | 6 |
Iowa-Grant | 194 | 7 |
Elmwood/Plum City | 193 | 7 |
Lourdes Academy | 193 | 7 |
Wauzeka/Seneca | 192 | 7 |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 182 | 7 |
Eleva-Strum | 182 | 7 |
Tri-County | 182 | 7 |
Bangor | 180 | 7 |
Clear Lake | 179 | 7 |
New Lisbon | 178 | 7 |
Hurley | 175 | 7 |
Johnson Creek | 174 | 7 |
Loyal | 168 | 7 |
Wild Rose | 165 | 7 |
McDonell Central | 165 | 7 |
Wausaukee | 164 | 7 |
Assumption | 159 | 7 |
De Soto | 157 | 7 |
North Crawford | 150 | 7 |
Royall | 143 | 7 |
Fall River | 141 | 7 |
Pepin/Alma | 137 | 7 |
Owen-Withee | 137 | 7 |
Ithaca | 135 | 7 |
Black Hawk | 128 | 7 |
Almond-Bancroft | 123 | 7 |
Suring | 123 | 7 |
Turtle Lake | 118 | 7 |
Potosi | 116 | 7 |
Shullsburg | 113 | 7 |
Cambria-Friesland | 110 | 7 |
Highland | 84 | 7 |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.