It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people.
I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.
Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.
Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.
That leaves 10 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).
There are four teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Ashwaubenon, Janesville Craig, Madison La Follette, and Madison Memorial.
That brings our total to 218 teams, leaving six more spots available for teams that finish 3-4 in conference. There are 16 such teams that finish 3-4 in conference. To figure out which six of those 16 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria.
First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league.
Most of the 16 teams had wins over a conference opponent who finished 2-5, one over a conference opponent who finished 1-6, and one who finished 0-7. However, two teams, Milton and Two Rivers, had wins over teams that had four wins in conference play, and thus become teams 219 and 220 to make it in. Oregon and Chilton had wins over teams that finished with three conference wins (as well as one over a one-win team), and become number 221 and 222.
That leaves two spots remaining, with 12 teams still in contention.
Head-to-head result (since every team doesn't play every other) and result versus conference champion do not apply to any of those teams.
The next criteria is win/loss percentage against the playoff field as determined initially. All are the same there, so we go down to step 3(d), which is "Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall win/loss percentage. Under that criteria, La Crosse Logan and Kenosha Indian Trail are the last two teams to make the PROJECTED playoff field.
Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.
* Please note that according to our projections, there is a tie on the D4/5 cutline (and several more potential ties if anything changes slightly) between Racine St. Catherine's and Spencer/Columbus Catholic at 367 enrollment. The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2017. At this time we do not know the tiebreaker number for the teams but will be reaching out to them to find out for sure.
Division | 2017* | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D1 Low Enrollment | 1422 | 1449 | 1445 | 1418 | 1421 | 1389 | 1301 | 1331 | 1360 | 1405 |
D2 Low Enrollment | 1011 | 953 | 937 | 932 | 936 | 922 | 841 | 878 | 878 | 919 |
D3 Low Enrollment | 584 | 571 | 561 | 528 | 531 | 544 | 504 | 508 | 513 | 557 |
D4 Low Enrollment | 367 | 397 | 393 | 345 | 358 | 362 | 352 | 359 | 336 | 353 |
D5 Low Enrollment | 267 | 290 | 279 | 245 | 266 | 253 | 255 | 252 | 238 | 252 |
D6 Low Enrollment | 198 | 196 | 202 | 194 | 197 | 200 | 194 | 184 | 181 | 195 |
* - Projected thru Wk 8 |
Team | Football Enrollment | PROJECTED Division |
---|---|---|
Kenosha Indian Trail | 2587 | 1 |
Sun Prairie | 2370 | 1 |
Kenosha Bradford | 2311 | 1 |
Milwaukee Hamilton | 2247 | 1 |
Milwaukee Riverside | 2234 | 1 |
Green Bay Preble | 2194 | 1 |
Madison West | 2191 | 1 |
Arrowhead | 2175 | 1 |
Middleton | 2157 | 1 |
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall | 2115 | 1 |
Marquette University | 2106 | 1 |
Oak Creek | 2077 | 1 |
Fond du Lac | 2060 | 1 |
Madison Memorial | 2036 | 1 |
Neenah | 2026 | 1 |
Appleton North | 2015 | 1 |
Racine Horlick | 1987 | 1 |
Bay Port | 1865 | 1 |
Janesville Craig | 1857 | 1 |
Hudson | 1802 | 1 |
Eau Claire Memorial | 1753 | 1 |
Oshkosh West | 1695 | 1 |
Verona | 1594 | 1 |
Muskego | 1590 | 1 |
Wisconsin Rapids | 1564 | 1 |
Madison La Follette | 1559 | 1 |
Kimberly | 1530 | 1 |
Milwaukee King | 1524 | 1 |
Franklin | 1508 | 1 |
Badger | 1492 | 1 |
Sussex Hamilton | 1484 | 1 |
Kettle Moraine | 1422 | 1 |
Appleton West | 1418 | 2 |
Germantown | 1405 | 2 |
Hartford | 1368 | 2 |
Milwaukee Washington | 1349 | 2 |
Watertown | 1345 | 2 |
Homestead | 1334 | 2 |
Milwaukee Vincent | 1312 | 2 |
Menomonee Falls | 1309 | 2 |
Milwaukee Reagan | 1307 | 2 |
Brookfield Central | 1277 | 2 |
Waunakee | 1236 | 2 |
Brookfield East | 1216 | 2 |
Greenfield | 1199 | 2 |
Waukesha West | 1198 | 2 |
Marshfield | 1184 | 2 |
Green Bay Southwest | 1133 | 2 |
Burlington | 1131 | 2 |
Oregon | 1123 | 2 |
West Bend East | 1114 | 2 |
Holmen | 1111 | 2 |
La Crosse Central | 1110 | 2 |
Wilmot | 1109 | 2 |
Milton | 1103 | 2 |
Waterford | 1088 | 2 |
Beaver Dam | 1081 | 2 |
Pulaski | 1078 | 2 |
Milwaukee Bay View | 1051 | 2 |
Slinger | 1048 | 2 |
DeForest | 1037 | 2 |
Ashwaubenon | 1032 | 2 |
Monona Grove | 1022 | 2 |
Stoughton | 1011 | 2 |
Menasha | 997 | 3 |
Menomonie | 966 | 3 |
Greendale | 927 | 3 |
Whitefish Bay | 922 | 3 |
New Richmond | 910 | 3 |
Onalaska | 910 | 3 |
West De Pere | 896 | 3 |
Mount Horeb/Barneveld | 870 | 3 |
Pewaukee | 853 | 3 |
New Berlin Eisenhower | 850 | 3 |
Merrill | 830 | 3 |
Whitnall | 816 | 3 |
Antigo | 812 | 3 |
Port Washington | 810 | 3 |
Plymouth | 780 | 3 |
Wisconsin Lutheran | 779 | 3 |
Notre Dame | 770 | 3 |
La Crosse Logan | 755 | 3 |
Milwaukee Lutheran | 730 | 3 |
Monroe | 719 | 3 |
Rice Lake | 707 | 3 |
New Berlin West | 705 | 3 |
New London | 683 | 3 |
Catholic Memorial | 666 | 3 |
Ashland | 659 | 3 |
Jefferson | 657 | 3 |
Evansville/Albany | 657 | 3 |
Luxemburg-Casco | 639 | 3 |
Mosinee | 634 | 3 |
Kewaskum | 620 | 3 |
East Troy | 587 | 3 |
Fox Valley Lutheran | 584 | 3 |
Berlin | 560 | 4 |
West Salem | 543 | 4 |
Xavier | 540 | 4 |
Saint Francis | 540 | 4 |
Osceola | 536 | 4 |
Sheboygan Falls | 534 | 4 |
Freedom | 534 | 4 |
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian | 518 | 4 |
Martin Luther | 508 | 4 |
Mauston | 503 | 4 |
Little Chute | 497 | 4 |
Lodi | 495 | 4 |
Wrightstown | 492 | 4 |
Ellsworth | 490 | 4 |
Winneconne | 486 | 4 |
Two Rivers | 478 | 4 |
Beloit Turner | 464 | 4 |
Northwestern | 456 | 4 |
Kiel | 445 | 4 |
Wautoma | 427 | 4 |
Saint Croix Central | 419 | 4 |
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau | 418 | 4 |
Platteville | 418 | 4 |
Lake Mills | 403 | 4 |
Lakeside Lutheran | 401 | 4 |
Nekoosa | 398 | 4 |
University School | 395 | 4 |
Chilton | 387 | 4 |
Mayville | 386 | 4 |
Bloomer | 384 | 4 |
Peshtigo | 372 | 4 |
Racine St. Catherine's | 367 | 4 |
Spencer/Columbus Catholic | 367 | 5 |
Valders | 365 | 5 |
Clinton | 364 | 5 |
Horicon/Hustisford | 364 | 5 |
Westby | 363 | 5 |
Cedar Grove-Belgium | 352 | 5 |
New Holstein | 351 | 5 |
Spooner | 351 | 5 |
Arcadia | 345 | 5 |
Prairie du Chien | 341 | 5 |
New Glarus/Monticello | 338 | 5 |
Brookfield Academy | 330 | 5 |
Kenosha St. Joseph | 328 | 5 |
Amherst | 326 | 5 |
Laconia | 323 | 5 |
Stratford | 322 | 5 |
Southern Door | 321 | 5 |
Wittenberg-Birnamwood | 321 | 5 |
Elk Mound | 316 | 5 |
Kewaunee | 310 | 5 |
Lake Country Lutheran | 309 | 5 |
Bonduel | 304 | 5 |
Oconto | 303 | 5 |
Winnebago Lutheran | 299 | 5 |
Saint Croix Falls | 297 | 5 |
Durand | 296 | 5 |
Stanley-Boyd | 295 | 5 |
Colby | 292 | 5 |
Lancaster | 281 | 5 |
Howards Grove | 272 | 5 |
Cumberland | 272 | 5 |
Mondovi | 271 | 5 |
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser | 267 | 6 |
Grantsburg | 261 | 6 |
Belleville | 259 | 6 |
Unity | 256 | 6 |
Cambridge | 255 | 6 |
Saint Mary's Springs | 252 | 6 |
Fall Creek | 248 | 6 |
Fennimore | 247 | 6 |
Pardeeville | 245 | 6 |
Markesan | 243 | 6 |
Northern Elite | 243 | 6 |
Marathon | 242 | 6 |
Cuba City | 241 | 6 |
Auburndale | 241 | 6 |
Dodgeland | 238 | 6 |
Mishicot | 238 | 6 |
Crandon | 237 | 6 |
Racine Lutheran | 234 | 6 |
Pecatonica/Argyle | 226 | 6 |
Melrose-Mindoro | 223 | 6 |
Cochrane-Fountain City | 223 | 6 |
Regis | 221 | 6 |
Darlington | 221 | 6 |
Iola-Scandinavia | 216 | 6 |
Crivitz | 211 | 6 |
Brookwood | 209 | 6 |
Spring Valley | 208 | 6 |
Reedsville | 206 | 6 |
Manitowoc Lutheran | 205 | 6 |
Whitehall | 200 | 6 |
Mineral Point | 199 | 6 |
Lake Holcombe/Cornell | 198 | 6 |
Webster | 196 | 7 |
Wabeno/Laona | 195 | 7 |
Johnson Creek | 194 | 7 |
Abbotsford | 192 | 7 |
Edgar | 192 | 7 |
Clear Lake | 191 | 7 |
Wauzeka/Seneca | 189 | 7 |
Hilbert/Stockbridge | 187 | 7 |
Rosholt | 186 | 7 |
Pittsville | 184 | 7 |
Potosi/Cassville | 181 | 7 |
Lourdes Academy | 181 | 7 |
Bangor | 180 | 7 |
Wild Rose | 178 | 7 |
Elmwood/Plum City | 174 | 7 |
New Lisbon | 171 | 7 |
Independence/Gilmanton | 168 | 7 |
Hurley | 162 | 7 |
River Ridge | 160 | 7 |
De Soto | 151 | 7 |
North Crawford | 149 | 7 |
Assumption | 146 | 7 |
Royall | 146 | 7 |
Loyal | 145 | 7 |
Owen-Withee | 143 | 7 |
Fall River | 134 | 7 |
Ithaca | 134 | 7 |
Turtle Lake | 128 | 7 |
Almond-Bancroft | 121 | 7 |
Frederic | 120 | 7 |
Cambria-Friesland | 116 | 7 |
Black Hawk | 107 | 7 |
For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.