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State Championship Game predictions and breakdown

11/14/2023, 4:15pm CST
By Travis Wilson

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Aquinas is looking for a third consecutive Division 5 state championship

Last week I went 11-4 in picking the state semi-final and 8-player championship contests, giving me an overall record of 184-41, good for a 81.8% prediction rate. Here's my picks and breakdown of each of the state title contests.

DIVISION 1

Marquette (11-2) vs. Franklin (13-0), Friday 4 pm

Marquette fell in a close game to Arrowhead to open the season, then ran off four straight shutouts. The blip on the radar this year was a 50-21 loss to Sussex Hamilton, when the Hilltopper defense allowed as many points as they have in the other 12 games combined. The defense has led the way for Marquette, but sophomore Tommy Novotny has really come into his own at running back. Franklin is unbeaten and knocked off Muskego and Sussex Hamilton in impressive fashion the last couple weeks. The Sabers rely heavily on running back Terrance Shelton, the WFCA Large School Offensive Player of the Year, but Joey Kallay has really been a difference-maker at the quarterback spot. The defensive front seven, especially the linebacker group, is as good as any in the state.

My Pick: Franklin 27, Marquette 17

D1 Last Week: 2-0
D1 Overall: 27-3; 90%

DIVISION 2

Waunakee (13-0) vs. Badger (13-0), Friday 1 pm

Waunakee has been as dominant as any team in the state this year, with last week's 24-14 win over Kaukauna the only game decided by fewer than 23 points all season. The Warriors feature a dominating defense that could be among the best that legendary coach Pat Rice has ever had. The offense has overwhelmed opponents as well with playmakers at several spots. Badger will bring a different challenge than the Warriors have seen previously this year, with an option-heavy flexbone attack that dominated Kettle Moraine and Sun Prairie East last week. The Badgers rely heavily on quarterback J.P. Doyle to identify and execute things, and he's more than capable as a breakaway threat.

My Pick: Waunakee 24, Badger 21

D2 Last Week: 2-0
D2 Overall: 23-7; 76.7%

DIVISION 3

Rice Lake (12-1) vs. Grafton (12-1), Friday 10 am

Rice Lake rolled through the Middle Border schedule and first four playoff games with dominating efficiency, as the multiple running options in the Warriors' offense create problems for opponents. Easton Stone is an elite two-way player who was named the WFCA Small School Defensive Player of the Year. Grafton is the Cinderella of the state finals, as the fourth-seeded Black Hawks are the highest-seeded team remaining. Grafton has won three straight low-scoring competitive games, and will need to keep the scoreline down again this week. Junior quarterback Brady Hilgart is an emerging star who will be a hot commodity in the recruiting scene in the coming months.

My Pick: Rice Lake 30, Grafton 18

D3 Last Week: 1-1
D3 Overall: 23-7; 76.7%

DIVISION 4

Lodi (13-0) vs. Luxemburg-Casco (12-1), Thursday 7 pm

Lodi ran through the regular season undefeated and has looked very good in the playoffs. The Blue Devils are at Camp Randall for the first time since winning the school's only state title in 2017. Luxemburg-Casco has run through two elite teams the last couple weeks, first scoring a 24-21 win over previously unbeaten Two Rivers. Then last week, the Spartans rallied in the final minute to beat Catholic Memorial on a last-second field goal, 23-21. Max Ronsman is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback for Luxemburg-Casco.

My Pick: Lodi 28, Luxemburg-Casco 24

D4 Last Week: 2-0
D4 Overall: 26-4; 86.7%

DIVISION 5

Wrightstown (11-2) vs. Aquinas (12-1), Thursday 4 pm

Wrightstown was second in the North Eastern Conference and is the second team from the league to qualify for the state finals, joining Luxemburg-Casco. The Tigers' versatile rushing attack has been tough to stop in the playoffs, including 308 yards on the ground last week in a win over Saint Croix Falls. Aquinas is vying for its third straight Division 5 state title, as the Blugolds have re-invented their offense this year, going from a spread attack to a run-heavy formula.

My Pick: Aquinas 24, Wrighstown 21

D5 Last Week: 2-0
D5 Overall: 24-6; 80%

DIVISION 6

Stratford (12-1) vs. Darlington (12-1), Thursday 1 pm

Stratford is the defending champion in Division 6 and the Tigers have very much looked the part throughout the postseason. They won a title game rematch with Mondovi early on then took down previously unbeaten Grantsburg last week. Darlington has run through a gauntlet of challenges in the last three weeks, first getting a tight 7-0 win over SWAL rival Mineral Point, then knocking off old rival Lancaster 28-22. Last week, the Redbirds found a way against unbeaten Kewaunee in a 34-28 come-from-behind victory. 

My Pick: Stratford 22, Darlington 20

D6 Last Week: 0-2
D6 Overall: 27-3; 90%

DIVISION 7

Edgar (12-1) vs. Black Hawk/Warren (12-1), Thursday 10 am

Edgar lost to Ellsworth 8-6 to open the season but it has been domination ever since, including a run of nine straight shutouts. They took down previously unbeaten Boyceville a couple weeks ago before downing Bangor last week. Next up is a Black Hawk/Warren program that the Wildcats are very familiar with. These two met up in the 2018 and 2019 Division 7 state title games, with Black Hawk/Warren claiming one-score victories in both contests. After losing three, 1000-yard rushers off last year's squad, the Warriors finished second in the Six Rivers to Potosi/Cassville but got revenge in Level 3 in a 36-0 win. They scored another running clock win last week against previously unbeaten Reedsville. 

My Pick: Edgar 20, Black Hawk/Warren 16

D7 Last Week: 1-1
D7 Overall: 23-7; 76.7%

8-PLAYER

8-Player Last Week: 0-1
8-Player Overall: 9-6; 60%


About the Author

Travis Wilson serves as the WisSports.net General Manager, Football Editor, and contributing writer for other parts of the site. Wilson was selected as part of the Sports 40 Under 40 list by Coach & AD Magazine and the National High School Athletic Coaches Association for 2019. The Wisconsin Football Coaches Association (WFCA) named Travis the 2015 recipient of the Dave McClain Distinguished Service Award. He currently serves on the WFCA Executive Board and is a member of the Executive Board of the Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association. A graduate of Richland Center High School and Mount Mercy College in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Travis was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, baseball, basketball), inducted to the Richland Center High School Hall of Fame in 2023, and currently resides in Reedsburg. You can follow him on Twitter at @travisWSN.

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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