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PROJECTED Football Playoff Qualifying Field heading into Week 8

10/02/2017, 7:15pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

It is that time of the year again, where I feel like an accountant on April 15th trying to crunch numbers and figure out the good and bad news for people. 

I have predicted every game for the last two weeks of the high school football season, thereby determining final conference records for all teams. With these predictions, I can put together a PROJECTED playoff field. To see full WIAA Playoff Regulations, please visit here.

Please note the emphasis on PROJECTED, as things can and will change between now and the end of the final game next Friday night. Even one or two games going differently amongst the 400+ I projected could throw things off. This is meant to give an idea of where teams may fall in divisional placement as we head to the busy final two weeks.

Based on my projections, 214 teams finish with a conference record of .500 or better.

That leaves 10 spots available for teams that finish under .500 in conference. The first tiebreaker, something adjusted two years ago, is conference winning percentage. This gives an advantage in the tiebreaker to teams from 10-school conferences that play 9 league games. A 4-5 league record (0.444 conference winning percentage) is better than a 3-4 league record (0.429 conference winning percentage).

There are four teams that I project to finish 4-5 in conference play: Ashwaubenon, Janesville Craig, Madison La Follette, and Madison Memorial.

That brings our total to 218 teams, leaving six more spots available for teams that finish 3-4 in conference. There are 16 such teams that finish 3-4 in conference. To figure out which six of those 16 get into the postseason, we follow WIAA criteria.

First is the combined winning percentage of defeated conference opponents, conference games only. Basically, it rewards teams that have beaten some of the better teams in their league. 

Most of the 16 teams had wins over a conference opponent who finished 2-5, one over a conference opponent who finished 1-6, and one who finished 0-7. However, two teams, Milton and Two Rivers, had wins over teams that had four wins in conference play, and thus become teams 219 and 220 to make it in. Oregon and Chilton had wins over teams that finished with three conference wins (as well as one over a one-win team), and become number 221 and 222.

That leaves two spots remaining, with 12 teams still in contention.

Head-to-head result (since every team doesn't play every other) and result versus conference champion do not apply to any of those teams.

The next criteria is win/loss percentage against the playoff field as determined initially. All are the same there, so we go down to step 3(d), which is "Defeated opponents (conference wins only) overall win/loss percentage. Under that criteria, La Crosse Logan and Kenosha Indian Trail are the last two teams to make the PROJECTED playoff field.

Now that we know the 224 teams PROJECTED to be in the playoffs, we can break them into divisions. The full PROJECTED divisional placements are below.

* Please note that according to our projections, there is a tie on the D4/5 cutline (and several more potential ties if anything changes slightly) between Racine St. Catherine's and Spencer/Columbus Catholic at 367 enrollment. The tiebreaker in this instance is the actual Third Friday of September enrollment count for 2017. At this time we do not know the tiebreaker number for the teams but will be reaching out to them to find out for sure.

PROJECTED 2017 CUTLINES COMPARED TO PAST SEASONS

Division 2017* 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
D1 Low Enrollment 1422 1449 1445 1418 1421 1389 1301 1331 1360 1405
D2 Low Enrollment 1011 953 937 932 936 922 841 878 878 919
D3 Low Enrollment 584 571 561 528 531 544 504 508 513 557
D4 Low Enrollment 367 397 393 345 358 362 352 359 336 353
D5 Low Enrollment 267 290 279 245 266 253 255 252 238 252
D6 Low Enrollment 198 196 202 194 197 200 194 184 181 195
* - Projected thru Wk 8

PROJECTED FOOTBALL PLAYOFF QUALIFYING FIELD

Team Football Enrollment PROJECTED Division
Kenosha Indian Trail  2587 1
Sun Prairie  2370 1
Kenosha Bradford  2311 1
Milwaukee Hamilton  2247 1
Milwaukee Riverside 2234 1
Green Bay Preble  2194 1
Madison West  2191 1
Arrowhead  2175 1
Middleton  2157 1
Milwaukee Morse-Marshall  2115 1
Marquette University  2106 1
Oak Creek  2077 1
Fond du Lac  2060 1
Madison Memorial  2036 1
Neenah  2026 1
Appleton North  2015 1
Racine Horlick  1987 1
Bay Port  1865 1
Janesville Craig  1857 1
Hudson  1802 1
Eau Claire Memorial  1753 1
Oshkosh West  1695 1
Verona  1594 1
Muskego  1590 1
Wisconsin Rapids  1564 1
Madison La Follette  1559 1
Kimberly  1530 1
Milwaukee King  1524 1
Franklin  1508 1
Badger  1492 1
Sussex Hamilton  1484 1
Kettle Moraine  1422 1
Appleton West  1418 2
Germantown  1405 2
Hartford  1368 2
Milwaukee Washington  1349 2
Watertown  1345 2
Homestead  1334 2
Milwaukee Vincent  1312 2
Menomonee Falls  1309 2
Milwaukee Reagan 1307 2
Brookfield Central  1277 2
Waunakee  1236 2
Brookfield East  1216 2
Greenfield 1199 2
Waukesha West  1198 2
Marshfield  1184 2
Green Bay Southwest  1133 2
Burlington  1131 2
Oregon  1123 2
West Bend East  1114 2
Holmen  1111 2
La Crosse Central  1110 2
Wilmot  1109 2
Milton  1103 2
Waterford  1088 2
Beaver Dam  1081 2
Pulaski  1078 2
Milwaukee Bay View  1051 2
Slinger  1048 2
DeForest  1037 2
Ashwaubenon  1032 2
Monona Grove  1022 2
Stoughton  1011 2
Menasha  997 3
Menomonie  966 3
Greendale 927 3
Whitefish Bay  922 3
New Richmond  910 3
Onalaska  910 3
West De Pere  896 3
Mount Horeb/Barneveld  870 3
Pewaukee 853 3
New Berlin Eisenhower 850 3
Merrill  830 3
Whitnall 816 3
Antigo  812 3
Port Washington  810 3
Plymouth  780 3
Wisconsin Lutheran 779 3
Notre Dame  770 3
La Crosse Logan  755 3
Milwaukee Lutheran 730 3
Monroe  719 3
Rice Lake  707 3
New Berlin West 705 3
New London  683 3
Catholic Memorial  666 3
Ashland  659 3
Jefferson  657 3
Evansville/Albany  657 3
Luxemburg-Casco  639 3
Mosinee  634 3
Kewaskum  620 3
East Troy  587 3
Fox Valley Lutheran  584 3
Berlin  560 4
West Salem  543 4
Xavier  540 4
Saint Francis  540 4
Osceola  536 4
Sheboygan Falls  534 4
Freedom  534 4
Kohler/Sheb. Luth./Christian  518 4
Martin Luther  508 4
Mauston  503 4
Little Chute  497 4
Lodi  495 4
Wrightstown  492 4
Ellsworth  490 4
Winneconne  486 4
Two Rivers  478 4
Beloit Turner  464 4
Northwestern  456 4
Kiel  445 4
Wautoma  427 4
Saint Croix Central  419 4
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau  418 4
Platteville  418 4
Lake Mills  403 4
Lakeside Lutheran  401 4
Nekoosa  398 4
University School  395 4
Chilton  387 4
Mayville 386 4
Bloomer  384 4
Peshtigo  372 4
Racine St. Catherine's 367 4
Spencer/Columbus Catholic  367 5
Valders  365 5
Clinton  364 5
Horicon/Hustisford  364 5
Westby  363 5
Cedar Grove-Belgium  352 5
New Holstein  351 5
Spooner  351 5
Arcadia  345 5
Prairie du Chien  341 5
New Glarus/Monticello  338 5
Brookfield Academy  330 5
Kenosha St. Joseph  328 5
Amherst  326 5
Laconia  323 5
Stratford  322 5
Southern Door  321 5
Wittenberg-Birnamwood  321 5
Elk Mound  316 5
Kewaunee  310 5
Lake Country Lutheran  309 5
Bonduel  304 5
Oconto  303 5
Winnebago Lutheran  299 5
Saint Croix Falls  297 5
Durand  296 5
Stanley-Boyd  295 5
Colby  292 5
Lancaster  281 5
Howards Grove  272 5
Cumberland  272 5
Mondovi  271 5
Chetek-Weyerhaeuser  267 6
Grantsburg  261 6
Belleville  259 6
Unity  256 6
Cambridge  255 6
Saint Mary's Springs  252 6
Fall Creek  248 6
Fennimore  247 6
Pardeeville  245 6
Markesan  243 6
Northern Elite  243 6
Marathon  242 6
Cuba City  241 6
Auburndale  241 6
Dodgeland  238 6
Mishicot  238 6
Crandon  237 6
Racine Lutheran  234 6
Pecatonica/Argyle  226 6
Melrose-Mindoro  223 6
Cochrane-Fountain City  223 6
Regis  221 6
Darlington  221 6
Iola-Scandinavia  216 6
Crivitz  211 6
Brookwood  209 6
Spring Valley  208 6
Reedsville  206 6
Manitowoc Lutheran  205 6
Whitehall  200 6
Mineral Point  199 6
Lake Holcombe/Cornell  198 6
Webster 196 7
Wabeno/Laona  195 7
Johnson Creek  194 7
Abbotsford  192 7
Edgar  192 7
Clear Lake  191 7
Wauzeka/Seneca  189 7
Hilbert/Stockbridge  187 7
Rosholt  186 7
Pittsville 184 7
Potosi/Cassville  181 7
Lourdes Academy  181 7
Bangor  180 7
Wild Rose  178 7
Elmwood/Plum City  174 7
New Lisbon  171 7
Independence/Gilmanton  168 7
Hurley  162 7
River Ridge  160 7
De Soto  151 7
North Crawford  149 7
Assumption  146 7
Royall  146 7
Loyal  145 7
Owen-Withee  143 7
Fall River  134 7
Ithaca  134 7
Turtle Lake  128 7
Almond-Bancroft  121 7
Frederic  120 7
Cambria-Friesland  116 7
Black Hawk  107 7

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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