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Week 9 Football Preview: Special Playoff Scenarios Edition

10/11/2016, 4:15pm CDT
By Travis Wilson

There are several big games this week, including many that will impact conference races. However, the big story statewide is the playoffs; who is in, who needs to win to get in, who is on the bubble. As such, we're going to change up the preview this week and focus on those games that may impact playoff qualification. We will break them down on a conference-by-conference basis. To view our current Playoff Qualifying Report, click here. To check out our PROJECTED Playoff Field, click here.
 
WisSports.net will have a projected playoff field posted shortly after all games are completed Friday night, likely between 10:30 and 11 pm. The WIAA has indicated they will release the official playoff field around midnight, and we will be posting it immediately as well. The WIAA will be releasing the 8-team regional groupings around 1:30 am, and the actual playoff brackets and match-ups on Saturday afternoon. WisSports.net is once again your BEST source for the brackets and other playoff information so be sure to visit WSN frequently and hit refresh often.

Please note, this report assumes several things:

  • All teams that are currently playoff-eligible (meaning they've guaranteed themselves at least a .500 conference record) will get in the playoffs. The last two years saw every .500 team make the playoffs plus several under .500 teams. There is a chance that one or two .500 teams could miss out via tiebreakers if multiple games go a certain way, but it is unlikely and for the sake of time and space, we didn't address those games in the write-ups.
  • Teams that finish 2-3 in conference will have no shot at the playoffs due to changes in tiebreaker procedures this year. If the WIAA does need to take sub-.500 teams, the order would go 4-5, then 3-4, and finally 2-3. There would likely be 12 to 15 teams at least above any 2-3 conference record teams. Thus, teams who have a best case scenario of finishing 2-3 are not mentioned in the game write-ups and are considered "Out".

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(Conference record in parenthesis)

Badger-North

In: Waunakee, Reedsburg, Mount Horeb/Barneveld.  Eligible: DeForest.  Out: Sauk Prairie, Baraboo, Portage.

Badger-South

In: Monroe, Monona Grove.  Eligible: Stoughton, Fort Atkinson.  Out: Madison Edgewood, Milton, Oregon.

Bay

Green Bay East (1-6) at Seymour (3-4) – Seymour needs a win to become the sixth of nine Bay Conference teams eligible for the playoffs. 

In: Menasha, West De Pere, Waupaca.  Eligible: Shawano, Xavier.  Out: New London, Green Bay East, Green Bay West.

Big East

Kohler/Sheboygan Lutheran/Christian (3-4) at Manitowoc Lutheran (2-5) – The Kohler co-op can become playoff-eligible and almost certain to get in with a win in this one.

Mishicot (2-5) at Oostburg (3-4) – Oostburg can become playoff-eligible and almost certain to get in with a win in this one.

In: Ozaukee, Hilbert/Stockbridge, Cedar Grove-Belgium, Random Lake.  Out: Mishicot, Manitowoc Lutheran, Reedsville, Saint Mary Catholic.

Big Eight

Verona (7-1) at Janesville Craig (3-5) – If Craig can knock off conference co-leader Verona, they’ll get in the mix if the WIAA needs to take sub-.500 conference teams and have a pretty high tiebreaker number if it comes to it.

Janesville Parker (3-5) at Madison West (5-3) – Parker needs a win to get squarely on the bubble, and it would likely come down to several different tiebreakers to determine if the Vikings get in, but at least they’d have a shot.

In: Sun Prairie, Verona, Middleton, Madison West, Madison La Follette.  Out: Madison Memorial, Madison East, Beloit Memorial.

Big Rivers

Superior (3-3) at Eau Claire North (0-6) – A win for Superior clinches a playoff spot, while a loss would leave them dependent on what happens in other games, but with a slim chance of getting in as a 3-4 team.

Eau Claire Memorial (2-4) at Rice Lake (4-2) – If Memorial can pull off the upset, they’ll have to wait and see what happens in other games, but their chances would still be low of getting in. A loss officially eliminates them.

In: Menomonie, Rice Lake, Hudson, Chippewa Falls.  Out: River Falls, Eau Claire North.

Capitol-North

Poynette (0-4) at Lakeside Lutheran (2-2) – If Lakeside wins, they’re in; if they lose, they’re out.

Lake Mills (2-2) at Lodi (3-1) – Lake Mills needs a win to get in, otherwise they’re left at home for the postseason.

In: Columbus, Lodi.  Out: Poynette, Watertown Luther Prep.

Capitol-South

Belleville (1-2) at Marshall (1-2) – The winner almost certainly is in, the loser is officially out.

In: New Glarus/Monticello, Waterloo.  Out: Cambridge.

Classic Eight

Catholic Memorial (6-0) at Waukesha North (3-3) – If North wins, they are in. If they lose, they have a slim chance of getting in, but if the WIAA needs to take 3-4 teams, they’d have a solid tiebreaker number thanks to the win over Arrowhead earlier this year.

Kettle Moraine (2-4) at Mukwonago (3-3) – A Mukwonago win clinches for them and eliminates Kettle Moraine. A Kettle Moraine win likely eliminates both teams, though they’d each stand a chance, however it’d be very low.

Muskego (2-4) at Arrowhead (4-2) – If Muskego loses, they are done. If they win, there’d be a chance they could get in if the WIAA needs to take 3-4 teams, and they’d have one of the better tiebreaker numbers amongst those squads.

In: Catholic Memorial, Waukesha West, Arrowhead.  Out: Waukesha South.

Cloverbelt

Colby (3-4) at Osseo-Fairchild (2-5) – Colby is eliminated with a loss, though a win almost certainly puts the Hornets into the playoffs for a tenth straight season.

In: Regis, Stanley-Boyd, Spencer/Columbus Catholic, Altoona.  Out: Osseo-Fairchild, Fall Creek, Cadott, Neillsville/Granton.

Cloverwood

Thorp (3-5) at Newman Catholic (1-7) – Thorp would be eliminated with a loss, while with a victory they would likely be one of several teams tied for the final playoff spots, and it’d potentially come down to their tiebreaker number. 

Abbotsford (8-0) at Gilman (3-5) – Gilman is out if they lose, but a win over undefeated Abbotsford would likely get them into the playoffs as the top 4-5 team in tiebreakers.

Loyal (7-1) at Athens (3-5) – Athens is eliminated with a loss, while a win likely would be enough to get them in as a sub-.500 team, though it would come down to tiebreakers, where their number would be relatively high.

In: Abbotsford, Loyal, Assumption, Owen-Withee, McDonell Central.  Out: Newman Catholic, Greenwood.

Coulee

Westby (2-2) at Luther (2-2) – A true “winner take all” game, as the victor claims a playoff spot while the loser is eliminated.

In: G-E-T, Arcadia.  Out: Viroqua, Black River Falls.

CWC-8

Weyauwega-Fremont (2-3) at Iola-Scandinavia (4-1) – Wega is out if they lose, but likely in with a win.

Pacelli (1-4) at Shiocton (2-3) – Shiocton is out if they lose, but likely in with a win.

In: Amherst, Iola-Scandinavia, Bonduel.  Out: Pacelli, Wittenberg-Birnamwood.

CWC-10

Tigerton/Marion (2-3) at Tri-County (2-3) – The winner is almost certainly in the playoffs, while the loser is eliminated.

In: Wild Rose, Almond-Bancroft, Manawa.  Out: Port Edwards, Rosholt.

Dairyland

Whitehall (3-3) at Melrose-Mindoro (6-0) – Whitehall is in with a win, while a loss likely leaves them out of the playoffs, though there would be a slim chance depending on tiebreakers.

Alma Center Lincoln (2-4) at Augusta (0-6) – Alma Center is out with a loss and most likely won’t make it with a win either, as it appears the WIAA may not need to take 3-4 conference teams and their tiebreaker number would be low anyways.

Blair-Taylor (1-5) at Independence/Gilmanton (2-4) – I/G is out with a loss and most likely won’t make it with a win either, as it appears the WIAA may not need to take 3-4 conference teams and their tiebreaker number would be low anyways.

In: Melrose-Mindoro, Cochrane-Fountain City, Eleva-Strum.  Out: Blair-Taylor, Augusta.

Dunn-St. Croix

In: Durand, Spring Valley, Glenwood City.  Eligible: Elk Mound.  Out: Boyceville, Mondovi, Colfax.

East Central

Kewaskum (5-1) at Campbellsport (2-4) – Should Campbellsport shock the league co-leaders, they would stand a decent chance of getting in if the WIAA is forced to take 3-4 conference teams. A loss eliminates them.

Waupun (2-4) at Plymouth (5-1) – Should Waupun shock the league co-leaders, they would stand a decent chance of getting in if the WIAA is forced to take 3-4 conference teams. A loss eliminates them.

Winneconne (2-4) at Ripon (3-3) – A Ripon win clinches for the Tigers, while a Winneconne win likely keeps both teams out of the playoffs, as even if 3-4 teams made it, their tiebreaker numbers would be low.

In: Kewaskum, Plymouth, Berlin. Out: Kettle Moraine Lutheran.

Eastern Wisconsin

Roncalli (2-4) at New Holstein (2-4) – The loser is out of the playoffs, while the winner is still unlikely to get in. If the WIAA is forced to take teams that finish 3-4 in conference, the winner has a chance, but a very low one thanks to a low tiebreaker score.

Chilton (2-4) at Two Rivers (4-2) – Chilton is out of the playoffs with a loss, but still unlikely to get in even if they pull off the upset. If the WIAA is forced to take teams that finish 3-4 in conference, they’d have a chance, but a low one thanks to a low tiebreaker score.

In: Sheboygan Falls, Valders, Two Rivers, Kiel.  Out: Brillion.

Flyway

Mayville (2-3) at Saint Mary’s Springs (5-0) – A Mayville win would be the upset of the year but it would get them in the playoffs. A loss eliminates them.

In: Saint Mary’s Springs, Omro.  Eligible: Winnebago Lutheran, Laconia.  Out: Lomira, North Fond du Lac.

FRCC

Bay Port (8-0) at De Pere (4-4) – A win clinches for last year’s FRCC champion De Pere, but they have a decent shot to get in even with a loss, though it would depend on how many sub-.500 teams the WIAA has to take.

Green Bay Preble (4-4) at Pulaski (5-3) – A win clinches for Preble, but they have a decent shot to get in even with a loss, though it would depend on how many sub-.500 teams the WIAA has to take.

Ashwaubenon (4-4) at Sheboygan North (1-7) – A win clinches for Ashwaubenon, but they have a decent shot to get in even with a loss, though it would depend on how many sub-.500 teams the WIAA has to take.

In:  Bay Port, Notre Dame, Green Bay Southwest, Pulaski.  Out: Sheboygan North, Sheboygan South, Manitowoc Lincoln.

Great Northern

Mosinee (1-4) at Lakeland (2-3) – Lakeland can almost certainly secure a postseason spot with a home victory, while a loss eliminates them.

In: Medford, Merrill, Antigo.  Out: Mosinee, Ashland, Rhinelander.

Greater Metro

Sussex Hamilton (3-3) at Brookfield East (4-2) – A Sussex win puts them in, while a loss likely eliminates them.

Brookfield Central (6-0) at Menomonee Falls (3-3) – Falls gets in with a huge win over the unbeaten Lancers, but is likely out with a loss, though there would be the tiniest chance they could squeak in if a whole bunch of things go their way elsewhere.

Wauwatosa East (0-6) at West Allis Central (2-4) – Technically a win by WAC keeps them alive for one of the sub-.500 spots, but their tiebreaker number would be the lowest it could possibly be and they have little hope of making it.

In: Brookfield Central, Marquette, Brookfield East.  Out: West Allis Hale, Wauwatosa East.

Heart O’North

Bloomer (3-3) at Barron (0-6) – If Bloomer gets a road win as expected, they’re in. If they lose, they are likely out.

Cumberland (3-3) at Hayward (5-1) – Cumberland clinches with a win at the league co-leaders, but a loss likely keeps them out.

Ladysmith (2-4) at Northwestern (5-1) – Ladysmith is out with a loss but could have a little bit of hope to get in with a win, though it would be dependent on the WIAA needing to take teams that finish 3-4 in conference play, where their tiebreaker number would be very good.

In: Northwestern, Hayward, Chetek-Weyerhaeuser.  Out: Spooner, Barron.

Lakeland-North

In: Grantsburg, Unity, Saint Croix Falls.  Eligible: Cameron.  Out: Webster, Flambeau, Washburn/Bayfield/South Shore.

Lakeland-South

Lake Holcombe/Cornell (2-4) at Clear Lake (3-3) – A Clear Lake win clinches for the Warriors and eliminates LH/C. If it goes the other way, both teams would be very much on the bubble, but would have low tiebreaker numbers if the WIAA does have to take 3-4 teams.

Frederic (3-3) at Turtle Lake (5-1) – Should Frederic shock the league co-leaders, they would stand a decent chance of getting in if the WIAA is forced to take 3-4 conference teams. A loss eliminates them.

In: Elmwood/Plum City, Pepin/Alma, Turtle Lake.  Out: Shell Lake, Clayton (forfeit season).

Marawood

Pittsville (3-4) at Marathon (6-1) – A Pittsville win almost certainly gets them in, while a loss eliminates them.

Auburndale (3-4) at Tomahawk (2-5) – An Auburndale win almost certainly gets them in, while a loss eliminates them.

In: Stratford, Marathon, Rib Lake/Prentice.  Eligible: Edgar.  Out: Tomahawk, Chequamegon, Phillips.

M&O

Suring (3-3) at Gillett (0-6) – Suring clinches with a win but would have a sliver of a chance with a loss depending on tiebreaker scenarios.

Crivitz (2-4) at Wausaukee (3-3) – A Wausaukee win clinches for them and eliminates Crivitz. A Crivitz victory could leave both on the outside looking in, but it would depend on how many sub-.500 teams the WIAA takes and the tiebreaker procedures.

In: Coleman, Peshtigo.  Out: Gillett.

Metro Classic 

Martin Luther (4-2) at Dominican (3-3) – Dominican can clinch with a win, with a loss leaving them dependent on tiebreaker procedures, and their tiebreaker number would be very low.

Kenosha St. Joseph (4-2) at Shoreland Lutheran (2-4) – Last year’s Cinderella Level 4 team Shoreland Lutheran would be eliminated with a loss, while a win would leave them at the mercy of tiebreaker procedures. This win would help in that department, but they might still be less than 50% to get in.

In: Racine St. Catherine’s, Racine Lutheran, Kenosha St. Joseph, Martin Luther.  Out: Saint Thomas More, Catholic Central.

Middle Border

Saint Croix Central (3-3) at Prescott (0-6) – SCC can clinch with a win but may be left out if they are victims of the upset.

Ellsworth (2-4) at Osceola (6-0) – Ellsworth would be eliminated with a loss but could get in if they can shock the defending D4 champs, but things would be out of their hands a bit and dependent on tiebreakers.

Baldwin-Woodville (2-4) at Somerset (2-4) – The loser is officially eliminated, but the winner is almost certain to miss out as well with a low tiebreaker number.

In: Osceola, New Richmond, Amery.  Out: Prescott.

Midwest Classic 

Living Word Lutheran (2-4) at St. John’s Military (2-4) – The loser is eliminated while the winner is almost certain to miss out as well thanks to a low tiebreaker score.

In: Lake Country Lutheran, Brookfield Academy, University School, Saint Francis.  Out: HOPE Christian, Kenosha Christian Life (forfeit season)

Milwaukee-Blackbourn

In: King, Morse-Marshall, Vincent.  Eligible: Washington.  Out: Career & Tech. Ed., Madison, North.

Milwaukee-Richardson

In: Riverside, Hamilton, Bay View.  Eligible: Bradley Tech.  Out: Reagan, Pulaski, South.

Mississippi Valley

In: West Salem, Onalaska, Sparta, La Crosse Logan, Holmen.  Out: Tomah, La Crosse Central, Aquinas.

North Eastern

Luxemburg-Casco (7-0) at Marinette (3-4) – Marinette is almost certainly in with a win, but out with a loss.

In: Luxemburg-Casco, Little Chute, Fox Valley Lutheran, Freedom.  Eligible: Wrightstown.  Out: Oconto Falls, Denmark, Clintonville.

North Shore

Germantown (3-3) at Milwaukee Lutheran (3-3) – The winner is in for sure, while the loser would have to wait to see how tiebreaker procedures play out, but likely to miss the postseason.

Nicolet (0-6) at Port Washington (3-3) – If Port Washington can take care of business, they are in for the first time since 2008. A loss leaves them hoping for an at-large berth with a high tiebreaker number, though still more likely than not to miss the playoffs.

In: Homestead, Cedarburg, Whitefish Bay.  Out: Grafton, Nicolet.

Northern Lakes 

Crandon (3-3) at Three Lakes/Phelps (2-4) – A Crandon win gets the Cardinals in the postseason. A loss likely leaves both teams out with low tiebreaker numbers.

In: Wabeno/Laona, Northern Elite.  Out: Florence, Elcho/White Lake.

Packerland

In: Southern Door, Kewaunee.  Eligible: Oconto.  Out: Algoma, Sturgeon Bay.

Ridge & Valley

Riverdale (2-3) at North Crawford (2-3) – Another “winner take all” game, with the winner 99.9% likely to get in the playoffs while the loser is eliminated.

In: Ithaca, De Soto, Wauzeka/Seneca.  Out: Wonewoc/Weston, Kickapoo/La Farge.

Rock Valley

Brodhead/Juda (4-4) at East Troy (5-3) – Brodhead/Juda can clinch a 25th straight postseason appearance with a win, while they’d be on the bubble with a loss, dependent on potentially numerous tiebreaker scenarios.

Beloit Turner (3-5) at McFarland (2-6) – Turner would be eliminated with a loss, while a win would leave them beholden to tiebreaker scenarios, though as a 4-5 conference team they’d be towards the top of the list.

In: Clinton, Evansville/Albany, Jefferson, Big Foot, East Troy.  Out: McFarland, Edgerton, Whitewater.

Scenic Bluffs

Necedah (2-3) at Bangor (5-0) – If Necedah can shock the defending D7 champs they’d likely wrap up a postseason spot.

In: Bangor.  Eligible: New Lisbon, Royall, Brookwood.  Out: Cashton, Hillsboro.

Six Rivers

River Ridge (3-4) at Black Hawk (5-2) – River Ridge would almost certainly be in with a win, but would be eliminated with a loss.

In: Pecatonica/Argyle, Highland, Shullsburg, Black Hawk.  Eligible: Potosi.  Out: Benton/Scales Mound (IL), Belmont, Cassville (forfeit season).

South Central

Wautoma (2-2) at Mauston (2-2) – A “winner take all” game with the victor getting the spoils of a postseason spot while the loser stays home.

In: Nekoosa, Adams-Friendship.  Out: Wisconsin Dells, Westfield.

Southeast

Oak Creek (3-3) at Kenosha Indian Trial (4-2) – A win clinches for Oak Creek, while a loss likely leaves them out of the playoffs, though there’d be a slim chance of getting in via tiebreakers.

Franklin (6-0) at Kenosha Tremper (2-4) – A loss eliminates Tremper, but if they can beat the league champs they’d have somewhat of a chance of getting in via tiebreakers.

Kenosha Bradford (3-3) at Racine Case (2-4) – A win clinches for Bradford, while a Case win would likely eliminate both depending on tiebreakers.

In: Franklin, Racine Horlick, Kenosha Indian Trail.  Out: Racine Park.

Southern Lakes

Burlington (2-4) at Union Grove (2-4) – The loser is eliminated, but it is unlikely the winner gets in either due to a low tiebreaker number.

In: Badger, Wilmot, Waterford, Delavan-Darien.  Out: Elkhorn, Westosha Central.

SWAL

Southwestern (0-5) at Mineral Point (2-3) – A win or go home game for Mineral Point.

Boscobel (1-4) at Cuba City (2-3) – A win or go home game for Cuba City.

In: Darlington, Iowa-Grant, Fennimore.  Out: Boscobel, Southwestern.

SWC

In: Lancaster, Platteville, River Valley.  Out: Dodgeville, Prairie du Chien, Richland Center.

Trailways-Large

Markesan (5-0) at Pardeeville (2-3) – Pardeeville almost certainly gets in if they defeat league-leading Markesan, but would be eliminated with a loss.

In: Markesan, Dodgeland, Horicon/Hustisford.  Out: Parkview, Montello/Princeton/Green Lake, Palmyra-Eagle.

Trailways-South

Fall River (3-2) at Rio (2-3) – Rio (and Fall River) are both almost certain to get in with a Rio victory, but a Rio loss would eliminate the Vikings. 

In: Cambria-Friesland, Lourdes Academy.  Eligible: Fall River, Johnson Creek.  Out: Randolph, Deerfield.

VFA-North

In: Kimberly, Appleton West, Wausau West.  Eligible: Appleton North, D.C. Everest.  Out: Kaukauna, Appleton East, Wausau East.

VFA-South

Oshkosh West (1-6) at Neenah (3-4) – Neenah can almost certainly get in with a win, while a loss would eliminate the Rockets.

In: Stevens Point, Fond du Lac, Hortonville.  Eligible: Wisconsin Rapids, Oshkosh North.  Out: Marshfield, Oshkosh West.

WestPAC

In: Hurley.  Out: Northland Pines.

Wisconsin Little Ten

Slinger (2-4) at Hartford (4-2) – If Slinger can pull off the upset, they’d have a shot, though slim, to make the playoffs depending on how tiebreakers play out.

West Bend East (2-4) at Watertown (4-2) – If East can pull off the upset, they’d have a shot, though slim, to make the playoffs depending on how tiebreakers play out.

Beaver Dam (2-4) at Wisconsin Lutheran (5-1) – If Beaver Dam can pull off the upset, they’d have a shot, though slim, to make the playoffs depending on how tiebreakers play out.

In: Wisconsin Lutheran, Oconomowoc, Hartford, Watertown.  Out: West Bend West.

Woodland-East

New Berlin West (2-3) at Whitnall (2-3) – A “winner take all” game in this crossover contest that counts in the standings, the victor is almost certain to get in the playoffs while the loser is eliminated.

In: Greenfield, Shorewood/Messmer.  Eligible: South Milwaukee.  Out: Cudahy, Brown Deer.

Woodland-West

Wauwatosa West (2-3) at Cudahy (1-4) – Tosa West is almost certain to get in with a win, while a loss would eliminate the Trojans.

New Berlin West (2-3) at Whitnall (2-3) – A “winner take all” game in this crossover contest that counts in the standings, the victor is almost certain to get in the playoffs while the loser is eliminated.

In: Pewaukee, New Berlin Eisenhower.  Eligible: Greendale.  Out: Pius XI Catholic

For the latest and most up to date football news and recruiting information, follow Travis on Twitter @travisWSN. Email story ideas, recruiting info, etc. to Travis at travis(at)wissports.net.

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